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Old 2016-02-27, 04:00   #1
jasong
 
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"Jason Goatcher"
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Default When do you guys think solid state(or something else) will overtake hard drives for bulk storage?

Also, since tape drives are the king of the hill for truly massive storage, will that ever die, in your opinion.

I originally did a little writing on a sheet of paper to try to figure things out. I'd love to say I did some quick math, but I'd forgotten how to do convergence series so, yeah, I suck at being a nerd.

Anyway, after I'd done the math and thought about a bit more, I realized that since hard drives only increase in speed about 10% for each doubling of space, things had the potential of becoming untenable for anyone fearing a crash, sooooo, the math was a waste a time.

Anyhow, from what I remember, the cost of solid state space tends to halve in price every 9 months, on average, and the cost of hard drive space tends to halve every year or so. But hard drives only increase their read speed about 10% per year. I think with my 5TB drive(yes, I like things to be big, but it's compensating for my social life, not that...other thing) it takes about half a day for it to read the whole drive, best case scenario. Last I checked, best case scenario I think solid state space cost 5 times as much as with a hard drive. I remember solid state was best case overall, but I forget how I chose the hard drive.

Those numbers I've listed are from memory, but I also take meds for psychosis so...(be sure to laugh at that last part, just not TOO much ;) )

So, assuming my numbers are correct RIGHT NOW, which they may or may not be, and also assuming people get sick of hard drive speeds(not guaranteed) flash drives should truly start to take over in the next 3-5 years.

And now, after I've bent over to be kicked, and idly wondering if people like Donald Trump realize how hated they are, I'll go research things and see how close I've come.
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Old 2016-02-27, 04:10   #2
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SSDs wear out. And the current controllers seem to be programmed to brick the drive when all the write cycles are consumed. I can't understand why it doesn't just go into read-only mode to give people a chance to recover their data. So until that problem is solved I personally won't ever by buying one. Also there is no way to securely erase them, which means that to secure one's data it needs to be using FDE from day one.
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Old 2016-02-27, 04:12   #3
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Years ago, when I first started reading about solid state storage, it got me to thinking.

One of the things about solid state storage is that you can put more than one bit in the same location, you simply vary the voltage(might be the wrong word, I'm far from an electronics expert) and that lets you describe each cell as more than one bit.

Well, what if you wanted extra speed and were willing to sacrifice space to get it? Or go the other way and be willing to slow down(still on the same solid state drive) to get extra space. I would imagine that a firmware upgrade could change what you have into what you want. There's so much choice on the market they would probably prefer you buy a new drive rather than alter(possibly temporarily) what you already have.

Is there anyone that knows a bit more about this? Trying to get more space would probably be a bit dangerous to the integrity of your files, but do you guys think that what I'm saying is true, that you could alter the drives to either increase speed or space?
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Old 2016-02-27, 04:18   #4
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MLC vs SLC I think is what you are talking about. MLC severely reduces the write cycles but increases the storage capacity. Many cheap SSDs use MLC.

Edit: Wikipedia link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-level_cell

Last fiddled with by retina on 2016-02-27 at 04:19
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Old 2016-02-27, 09:33   #5
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Since most computers are laptops, I'd say 'two years ago', when laptops switched to having SSDs by default. People who aren't media pirates generally have little enough bulk to store that 256GB suffices; people who are media pirates will keep looking at price-per-terabyte and buying hard drives.

I don't see a circumstance in which I'd switch to backing up to SSD rather than hard drive, so I expect Apple time capsules still to have hard drives in indefinitely (my suspicion is that the majority of home-user backup is done via Apple time machine, but that's at least in part from ignorance of how easy Windows makes it to plug in a drive and Just Get Backups thereby)

Last fiddled with by fivemack on 2016-02-27 at 09:34
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Old 2016-02-27, 10:14   #6
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Very little ever truly dies out. It just becomes ever less economically justifiable. That said, I doubt that holey paper or acoustic delay lines are used very much for storage these days.

Remember: the stone age is still alive and well in today's advanced technological societies. My granite mortars and pestles do far better jobs than the power tools available to me. It's hard to beat good old fashioned rock if you want a heat-proof hearth in a modern dwelling.
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Old 2016-02-27, 13:52   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retina View Post
SSDs wear out. And the current controllers seem to be programmed to brick the drive when all the write cycles are consumed. I can't understand why it doesn't just go into read-only mode to give people a chance to recover their data. So until that problem is solved I personally won't ever by buying one. Also there is no way to securely erase them, which means that to secure one's data it needs to be using FDE from day one.
Disk drive reliability is measured by the MTBF spec.
Enterprise disk drives have MTBF over 1,000,000 hours.
The Samsung Evo SSD drives have an MTBF rating of 2,000,000 hours.
Some SSD drives slow down writes so they can reach their MTBF.

An SSD can be configured with "spare" space.
We use SSD with 512 GB native space configured for 400 GB usable space
and 112 GB spare space. As blocks of memory in the 400 GB region reach
their write limit, the controller replaces the dead block with a block in the
spare space.

SSD can not overwrite data in place. Every write is to a unused location
in the SSD. Writes happen to pages but erases happen to blocks (a block
holds many pages). SSD controllers need a "garbage collection" routine
to move used pages out of a block so it can erase the block to reuse unused
pages in the block.

When we retire disk drives or SSD, we use a drill bit to securely erase the data.
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Old 2016-02-27, 15:32   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bgbeuning View Post
When we retire disk drives or SSD, we use a drill bit to securely erase the data.
If you are not selling them off second hand then okay. But it is very wasteful IMO.
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Old 2016-02-27, 15:47   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retina View Post
But it is very wasteful IMO.
Even the paranoid have enemies....
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Old 2016-02-27, 17:00   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by retina View Post
SSDs wear out. And the current controllers seem to be programmed to brick the drive when all the write cycles are consumed. I can't understand why it doesn't just go into read-only mode to give people a chance to recover their data.
You are mellowing in your old age. I would have thought the evilness was obvious: either sell the luser two disks so that they can take backups, thereby increasing your profit margin, or enjoy the schadenfreude as the luser has to abandon all hope when the disk goes into permanent failure.
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Old 2016-02-27, 17:08   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xilman View Post
You are mellowing in your old age. I would have thought the evilness was obvious: either sell the luser two disks so that they can take backups, thereby increasing your profit margin, or enjoy the schadenfreude as the luser has to abandon all hope when the disk goes into permanent failure.
That seems like a perfectly reasonable explanation. I must have gone temporarily sane for a brief moment, please excuse my abhorrent behaviour.
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