Manic of a panic is geopolitical

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by retina

Is that not testing?

Testing if someone died is easy. Some jurisdictions/hospitals don't have staff on hand to process the paperwork on the weekends. If they only have to report things during normal working days, why pay for extra staff to report on days they don't have to.
Death certificates have to pass through the hands of the non-trainee doctors. They tend to have a more normal schedule.

[Dr Sardonicus]

When I saw the graphic, and found the dips in reported deaths were on Sundays, Mondays, and some holidays, my mind went into "logical overdrive." A thought like "they'd-know-they-had-it-before-they-died-gotta-be-the-reporting" flashed through my mind unconsciously, leaving only the conclusion: I knew it had to be the reporting. I wasn't sure how I knew, but I knew it was in there, somewhere.

It was only later, when I saw "testing" in the response, I began to think consciously about the sequence of events, and - boom! That's it!

People who die of COVID-19 or complications from it don't usually drop dead before they can be tested for the virus. If they are hospitalized, they will be tested before they are admitted; and if there is any delay in getting the results, be handled as if they had it until the results are known. And if the patient does die, that will almost certainly be days, if not weeks later. So the test results are almost certainly in hand well before the "negative patient outcome."

[retina]

Fewer people die in the weekends. So you need to factor in that also.

[kruoli]

Why would people care dieing on specific week days? Or are you thinking of general deaths, including traffic death, work accidents, etc.?

[retina]

Originally Posted by kruoli

Why would people care dieing on specific week days? Or are you thinking of general deaths, including traffic death, work accidents, etc.?

I mentioned previously that in general people are less active in the weekends. They are probably also more relaxed and/or happy. These have effects on health and ability to continue living. Also the mental state has a factor to play. If your relatives come over for the weekend to comfort you then you can will yourself to live longer, and then die later when you are less willing to continue the struggle to survive.

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by retina

Fewer people die in the weekends. So you need to factor in that also.

So much for "It's the testing." What you are doing now is commonly referred to as "moving the goalposts."

Assuming "fewer people die on weekends" is a phenomenon predating COVID, I don't see why I need to "factor it in" to reporting statistics on COVID. Instead, I'd look at what people died of less over the weekends, enough to show up in the statistics. IIRC heart disease is the leading cause of death, so my guess would be fewer heart attacks over the weekend, and maybe more on Monday morning.

But it's your hypothesis. You "factor it in."

[retina]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

So much for "It's the testing." What you are doing now is commonly referred to as "moving the goalposts."

Well you stop down my testing hypothesis. I didn't defend it. I was just adding in one more factor to consider.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

I have updated the chart and added a simplistic prediction line.
This week + (this week-last week)*0.75 + (week before last - last week)*0.25
Again the last 2 weeks are not plotted because the data are vastly incomplete.
The peak is now just over 25,000.

I have updated the chart for the new season. I added in the last season into the average and Std Dev for the new season. It looks like this peak will pass the height of the summer/post summer peak.

[rogue]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

I have updated the chart for the new season. I added in the last season into the average and Std Dev for the new season. It looks like this peak will pass the height of the summer/post summer peak.

This chart proves that masks, social distancing, and other limits on our freedoms are leading to more deaths, not less.

Okay, I'm being satirical with that statement, but that is one of the arguments being made by conservatives.

[a1call]

Urgences Santé paramedics in Montreal and Laval were ordered not to resuscitate certain patients during the height of the pandemic to keep hospital ICUs from being overwhelmed.

Le Devoir reports the ministerial order was in place between April 4 and September 21, even though hospitals were less crowded over the summer. The order was lifted following complaints from the union.

https://www.iheartradio.ca/cjad/news...ort-1.14014612

[Dr Sardonicus]

The Latest: Mask mandate spurs Idaho official to push back

SANDPOINT, Idaho (AP) — A county commissioner in northern Idaho has proposed defunding the local health district after the district instituted a mask mandate to slow the spread of the coronavirus as it surges in the area.

The Bonner County Dailey reports that Bonner County Commissioner Steven Bradshaw proposed the resolution this week to pull about $250,000 from the Panhandle Health District.

Commission Chairman Dan McDonald said the resolution will have to be placed on the agenda before it can be considered at next week's meeting.

The health district ordered the mask mandate on Nov. 19.

Bonner County Sheriff Daryl Wheeler says his agency won't enforce it.

The Panhandle Health District covers five northern Idaho counties. The district reports the area has more than 9,000 virus cases and 106 deaths. The district reported 185 new cases on Wednesday, and that 74 people were hospitalized in the district due to the virus.