Predict M52

[a1call]

Sounds like you have already planned your vacation details for year.

[Brian-E]

258150181
15 August 2027

[axn]

94029857 - Mar 17, 2021
107054317 - Aug 31, 2023
121882903 - Jul 12, 2026

[kriesel]

Using a variation of the strikingly consistent methodology for guessing M51, to make predictions about M52:

ID     Ballpark      Basis of ballpark                  Guess exp  Mod 8    Date guess        
52a    88,318,521    ratio of previous two               88318673    1    Jun 14, 2019    Flag Day    
52b   121,882,920    Approx expected ratio 1.47576*p51  121882753    1    May 21, 2025    Assuming 6 million/year first test range covered    
52c   402,143,506    A long stride, 521/107*p51         402143633    1    Mar 12, 2052    "                    "

These have been tweaked to be 1 mod 8, since the probabilities are better there as I recall. Yes: https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...2&postcount=53 by GP2.

They have fractions of interior ones bits averaging 0.468, near the trend for higher known Mersenne prime exponents (0.479 overall and declining).

The methodology for predicting M51 was 100% consistent in selecting exponents that did not produce M1, and at least 2 out of 3 did not predict prime numbers. (What's 40 years of hunting, beginning with a programmable calculator to play with the low end.)
I predict M52 will be none of these new guesses.

If I squint a bit, it looks a little like Murphy of Murphy's law making a certain hand gesture in GP2's right digit hexadecimal histogram.
But hey, we're in it for the fun and learning, not fame or fortune.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by kriesel

Using a variation of the strikingly consistent methodology for guessing M51, to make predictions about M52:

TL;DR Please post a clear and simple guess.

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

TL;DR Please post a clear and simple guess.

See the "guess exp" column for 3 guesses of exponent value (decimal). "Date guess" column for their respective date guesses.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by kriesel

See the "guess exp" column for 3 guesses of exponent value (decimal). "Date guess" column for their respective date guesses.

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

With M51 found and verified and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M52 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.)
.......
Make your guess clear in your post.

GAME ON!

That last 'rule' in the original post was add for M52, because your guesses were buried in the M51 thread, like this time. Last time your 'Ballpark' column almost got entered as your guesses. Post them clearly and apart from how you derived them or other discussion.

[preda]

87000929
2019-12-01

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

That last 'rule' in the original post was add for M52, because your guesses were buried in the M51 thread, like this time. Last time your 'Ballpark' column almost got entered as your guesses. Post them clearly and apart from how you derived them or other discussion.

I thought labeled columns were perfectly clear, and still do. Note, in both the M51 and M52 case entries by me, the ballpark computed values rounded to EVENS for b and c. Which can't possibly produce primes since the resulting Mersenne numbers will be divisible by 3 (are repdigits in base 4). Rule 2 prohibits composite exponents as guesses.
Also took the time to carefully align the character cells in the code section this time, for ease of read/clarity, which does not just happen by itself when copy/paste from a spreadsheet is used. Plus the usual care in spelling and grammar.

I don't know what happened to the 5 I typed in "did not produce M1" that should read "did not produce M51"; not a moderator myself so can't go back and fix it now.

Guessing here, because I see a lot of variation in others' posts, without objection, that the preferred or required form is something like no more than about ten words of explanatory leading text, and one or more sets of
exponent_guess date_guess

"entered as your guesses" Entered as what, in what? If you're gathering them into a spreadsheet, it would make sense for the guesses to be formatted in our posts to make that easier, not harder. A space-separated table might be easiest.
(maybe a header line)
exp1 date1
exp2 date2
exp3 date3

Or perhaps:
username exp1 date1
username exp2 date2
username exp3 date3

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

That is not a valid guess. Your guess must be a specific prime number. No expressions or ranges. If you decide after M51 is announced to post the equivalent value, you may. But, this counts against your 3 potential guesses. The 60 rule is thus invoked.

May I suggest for next time, a rule 12:
12. Exponent guesses shall be expressed as integer decimal constants, without punctuation (no embedded comma, period, or space).

[Neutron3529]

85615531 Oct. 2019
87946949 Oct. 2019
92074531 Oct. 2019
I guess the next prime is close to the current M51 we found
I tried 3 different distance... and don't know whether it would work