mersenneforum.org > Data Today it is 1000 Days since last Mersenne Prime
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2015-10-22, 07:10   #1
aketilander

"Åke Tilander"
Apr 2011
Sandviken, Sweden

2×283 Posts
Today it is 1000 Days since last Mersenne Prime

Today is a notable day since it is 1000 days since we last discovered a Mersenne Prime. Attached you find a table of number of days between discoveries:

So what do you think, will there be another 1000 days before we see next Mersenne Prime?

My personal guess is that it will take a total of more then 3000 days, but less then 10000 before we see next Mersenne Prime, starting counting from 2013-01-25.
Attached Files
 Number of Days between the Discovery of Mersenne Primes.pdf (28.0 KB, 211 views)

Last fiddled with by aketilander on 2015-10-22 at 07:21

 2015-10-22, 07:35 #2 0PolarBearsHere     Oct 2015 2·7·19 Posts I'll guess within the next week*. *answer given to within 5 years
2015-10-22, 20:25   #3
VBCurtis

"Curtis"
Feb 2005
Riverside, CA

473710 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 0PolarBearsHere I'll guess within the next week*. *answer given to within 5 years
you double your coverage-of-correctness if you guess 22-Oct-2020, within 5 years.

2015-10-22, 22:59   #4
Mini-Geek
Account Deleted

"Tim Sorbera"
Aug 2006
San Antonio, TX USA

17·251 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by VBCurtis you double your coverage-of-correctness if you guess 22-Oct-2020, within 5 years.
Unless you think there's another undiscovered discovered prime, like the one that was found and reported to computers, but then not noticed by humans for a few months.

2015-10-23, 01:45   #5
0PolarBearsHere

Oct 2015

1000010102 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Mini-Geek Unless you think there's another undiscovered discovered prime, like the one that was found and reported to computers, but then not noticed by humans for a few months.
Well that's the thing isn't it. If we knew exactly where the prime numbers were going to be, we wouldn't need to fart about with the project. We could just shove in the values, and get the proof pretty much as quick as we pump them out.
So until all the previous LL checks are double/triple checked we won't know for sure that some prime number hater isn't just sneakily providing false residuals for the prime numbers and hoping they don't get double checked.

 2015-10-23, 16:09 #6 ATH Einyen     Dec 2003 Denmark 60058 Posts I hope we find one before 1384 days which is the current (sad) record. That is a record we do not want to break, which means we need to find the next one before Nov 10th 2016, 20:33:52 UTC. http://www.mersenneforum.org/showpos...&postcount=387 Here is a "count-up" since M57885161: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown...2C885%2C161%29 Code: M(1398269) Nov 13 1996 M(2976221) Aug 24 1997 +284 days M(3021377) Jan 27 1998 +156 days M(6972593) Jun 1 1999 +490 days M(13466917) Nov 14 2001 +897 days M(20996011) Nov 17 2003 +733 days M(24036583) May 15 2004 +180 days M(25964951) Feb 18 2005 +279 days M(30402457) Dec 15 2005 +300 days M(32582657) Sep 4 2006 +263 days M(43112609) Aug 23 2008 +719 days M(37156667) Sep 6 2008 +14 days M(42643801) Apr 12 2009 +218 days M(57885161) Jan 25 2013 +1384 days ------------------------------------------ +5917 days (=455.15 days average)
 2015-10-23, 20:03 #7 rudy235     Jun 2015 Vallejo, CA/. 97610 Posts Well although I may be stating the obvious, it really does not depend so much on our productivity as perhaps in the gap (ratio) between primes. Suppose for a moment we have an exponent gap Ratio of 521/127 like we had between the 12th and 13th Mersenne prime. That would put the next prime in the vecinity of 2^237,000,000 and I would assume that would take us, barring some kind of miracle, well into the 2030's or late 2020's. So I may be way out of line but rather than discovering a new mersenne prime what would be ideal is that we do a thorugh job of completing the 100,000,000 milestone. Of course if we do that and there is a prime Mn 58,500,000 >n> 100,000,000 that will be discovered too.
 2015-10-24, 00:37 #8 Uncwilly 6809 > 6502     """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 100101000100112 Posts Where did you get the exact dates for the early discoveries? The wiki could use some updating.
2015-10-24, 03:57   #9
Serpentine Vermin Jar

Jul 2014

37·89 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly Where did you get the exact dates for the early discoveries? The wiki could use some updating.
I think they're all just here:
http://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/

2015-10-24, 05:35   #10
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502

"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

9,491 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Madpoo I think they're all just here: http://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/
He has specific dates from the 1870's and 1880's. I will assume that ones from the 1400's, 1500's, and 1700's are just mid-year place holders.

2015-10-24, 11:25   #11
aketilander

"Åke Tilander"
Apr 2011
Sandviken, Sweden

10001101102 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly He has specific dates from the 1870's and 1880's. I will assume that ones from the 1400's, 1500's, and 1700's are just mid-year place holders.
Yes, when there is no exact dates I have used mid-year, or in the case the month is known, mid-month.

I have used the dates from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mersenne_prime

If there are any wrong dates there it would, of course, be good if they could be corrected, also adding the best, most reliable source as a reference.

Last fiddled with by aketilander on 2015-10-24 at 11:28

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