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Old 2022-10-08, 21:41   #452
kriesel
 
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Re 2nd post previous: Knock knock ...

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2022-10-08 at 21:42
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Old 2022-10-09, 17:40   #453
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Traffic has resumed on the Kerch bridge. Photo & video of damage here.
The latest Russian field commander du jour here.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2022-10-09 at 17:41
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Old 2022-10-10, 13:23   #454
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I cropped the Maxar satellite image to focus on the damage (attached).

The most severe damage appears to be where a road span is broken between two supports. The same span is also broken at both ends, as is the next span to the right. In addition, both of these spans have been moved laterally outward at their common support by about half their width. There appears to be some damage to the other two lanes a bit further to the right.

There is also a break in the road deck near the lower left-hand corner of the picture. The span between it and the two adjacent broken spans appears to be intact.

I reckon that road traffic on the bridge will be reduced from 4 lanes to 2 lanes for a while. And probably no truck traffic at all.

I don't know about the rail spans. They don't appear to have suffered anywhere near the blast damage the road spans did. I suppose the fire might have weakened some of the steel and concrete, but I don't know how much.

I have not seen any analysis of what the damage says about where the explosion actually happened. However, a BBC story casts doubt on the "truck bomb" story:
Quote:
Russian officials named a 25-year old Krasnodar man, Samir Yusubov, as the owner of the truck, and said an older relative, Makhir Yusubov, was the driver.

But close examination of the footage seems to show that the truck had nothing to do with the explosion.

The footage shows a huge fireball erupting just behind - and to one side - of the truck as it begins to climb an elevated section of the bridge.
Never mind, after a single day of "investigation," Vlad the Insane decreed the bombing a "terrorist attack," and Russia began launching missiles and drones at cities all over Ukraine.
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Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2022-10-10 at 13:25
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Old 2022-10-10, 13:43   #455
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Never mind, after a single day of "investigation," Vlad the Insane decreed the bombing a "terrorist attack," and Russia began launching missiles and drones at cities all over Ukraine.
That's the same as for the assassination of the daughter of that crazy Douguina: after a day they have so many evidences that's the case is closed. And the only thing we can be almost sure of is: they are lying.


And as you wrote, they are now heavily bombing civilians. I'm always surprised these clowns seem to be looking for excuses for their acts. The world knows they behave as barbarians, but I guess they want to convince themselves they are the good people of the story.
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Old 2022-10-10, 14:07   #456
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ldesnogu View Post
That's the same as for the assassination of the daughter of that crazy Douguina: after a day they have so many evidences that's the case is closed. And the only thing we can be almost sure of is: they are lying.
<snip>
There were news stories several days ago about the Douguina case, to the effect that US intelligence thinks the Ukrainians did the deed with governmental blessing. It seems the father, a rabid Russist, was the target, but his daughter unexpectedly took the wheel and was killed by the blast.

I'm sure the Ukrainians are behind the bridge attack. They've been proclaiming their desire to do it for some time. I see it more as sabotage than terrorism. It's clear from the footage of the blast that there wasn't much traffic on the bridge at the time. I'd think a terrorist attack would be timed to occur when there was a lot of road traffic, to maximize civilian casualties.
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Old 2022-10-11, 10:02   #457
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If Ukrainians did the bridge, this was a mistake. That bridge is more valuable for them alive than dead. If you ask me who did it, I would say, the Russians. I know, you will say I am always the "contra"-man. You asked me who did the pipes, and I told you I don't believe Russians did it, when the "analysts" said otherwise. Now if you ask me who did the bridge, I would say the Russians. I know, nobody asks me. But that bridge is more valuable for Ukrainians intact, than broken. And Russians were looking for a while for an excuse to bomb those cities...
Look to the damage: there is none. The bridge is still functional. And what that train was doing there for almost 3 hours? (trains never stop on bridges, in fact they are required to pass fast...). I think it was a shield. Everything well controlled. Constipation theory...

Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2022-10-11 at 10:27
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Old 2022-10-11, 10:23   #458
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LaurV View Post
But that bridge is more valuable for Ukrainians intact, than broken.
In what way is it more valuable intact? To make sure Russians have a way to flee retreat? To make sure Russians can bring more weapons to Kherson through it?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
There were news stories several days ago about the Douguina case, to the effect that US intelligence thinks the Ukrainians did the deed with governmental blessing. It seems the father, a rabid Russist, was the target, but his daughter unexpectedly took the wheel and was killed by the blast.

I'm sure the Ukrainians are behind the bridge attack. They've been proclaiming their desire to do it for some time. I see it more as sabotage than terrorism. It's clear from the footage of the blast that there wasn't much traffic on the bridge at the time. I'd think a terrorist attack would be timed to occur when there was a lot of road traffic, to maximize civilian casualties.
I'm sorry I again missed to express what I mean, that was supposed to be irony. I don't believe a second Russians could close such cases within a day or two. That's what I mean by "they're lying". The conclusions can be correct, the process that leads to these conclusions likely is not correct.

Last fiddled with by ldesnogu on 2022-10-11 at 10:27
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Old 2022-10-11, 10:50   #459
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ldesnogu View Post
In what way is it more valuable intact? To make sure Russians have a way to flee retreat? To make sure Russians can bring more weapons to Kherson through it?
True. Both of them. Especially the first. Assuming it will come to take Crimea, what do you think is better, soldiers fleeing or cornered soldiers fighting to the last blood? (if they are so much brainwashed to believe that surrendering in general, or surrendering to Ukrainian forces in special, is worse than death). For the second part, the bridge is easy to monitor. Five hundred little ships arriving all around Crimea, are not.

But these are not the only reasons. Or the most important, neither. Wars end sometimes, you know?... I would point you to another video, but I know you don't like those, so I will not...

Last fiddled with by LaurV on 2022-10-11 at 10:59
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Old 2022-10-11, 11:06   #460
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LaurV View Post
Look to the damage: there is none. The bridge is still functional.
Largely untrue.

One road carriageway is open to light traffic for the time being. The other one has two sections in the water.

As for the rail bridge, the oil fire was intense enough to soften the rails so that the wagon wheels sank into them. At least two sections of the concrete on the rail side are now a pinkish colour, indicating that they will need to be replaced. The rebar in them is totally screwed and the concrete itself has lost much of its strength.

I doubt that trains will be running again until at least November and possibly not until December.

This is the source of my initial information: https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1579586019607064576

See also: https://theconversation.com/crimean-...-damage-192161

Last fiddled with by xilman on 2022-10-11 at 11:09 Reason: Add second link
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Old 2022-10-11, 12:54   #461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LaurV View Post
I would point you to another video, but I know you don't like those, so I will not...
You might think that people don't change their mind. But I think that tells more about the way you think than about others. I watched the video; pretty interesting and well done (thanks!).

The argument about monitoring the bridge being easier is nothing compared to the difficulty of having to use dozens of boats, if you ever sailed you should know what I mean and weather is only a part of the issue. Add to that satellite and intelligence have been monitoring dozens of very small moves, and you now understand why Russia are not using cow driven carts to bring canons to the front.

Regarding Russian soldier behavior, do you really think they are ready to fight till they die? Isn't the main reason they don't flee, not because they've been brainwashed, but because they're afraid that their Soviet officer will fire at them in the back? But that's perhaps me being naive thinking people are smarter and more human than they are in reality. And indeed Russians have proven some of them behave like beasts, but in that case I'd argue they should just be eradicated (sorry, I can't excuse Boutcha and other crimes and I get carried away when I think about that) and not given the opportunity to return into their cave.
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Old 2022-10-11, 12:59   #462
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xilman View Post
I doubt that trains will be running again until at least November and possibly not until December.
Didn't FoR claim they reopened the other railway for traveler trains (not for military trains)?


This indeed looks very stupid and typical of the Russian ubermensch way. As we say in French, "mรชme pas mal".
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