20220730, 20:43  #375  
Einyen
Dec 2003
Denmark
6471_{8} Posts 
Quote:


20220730, 23:24  #376 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{2}·29·59 Posts 
No one, yet. But after over almost all of recorded history, of the discovered Mp count lagging the Wagstaff conjecture's implications for count versus search limit, since Mp#51 was found a few years ago, for a change we're a bit ahead of the conjecture's forecast. It seems a bad bet to expect the extremely productive run of the past 2 decades to continue despite the data below 10^{7} indicating a lower mean rate vs. log(exponent). I've not seen any rumored theoretical basis for a change in slope above some exponent. Earlier there were ~2:1, 3.5:1 and 4:1 intervals that were empty.
Possibly of interest: last paragraph of the "dubious claims" post, George's Wagstaff conjecture run post, number of Mersenne primes versus search limit (with Wagstaff conjecture and DC limit also plotted) 
20220731, 18:14  #377  
"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020
Head Base M168202123
2·389 Posts 
Quote:
Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 20220731 at 18:15 

20220819, 22:11  #378 
"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020
Head Base M168202123
1412_{8} Posts 
I'm willing to wait until Sep 23, 2022 to solidly declare victory over Post #199 of this thread.

20220819, 23:28  #379  
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
3×3,581 Posts 
Quote:
If you are concerned about the content of the post, my statement at that time was exactly correct in that there was still a long way to go to declare it the longest gap. Since that post, there has been over a year and 3 months. That is not a small amount of time, when talking about gaps in MP discovery in the computer era. 

20220820, 13:51  #380  
Feb 2017
Nowhere
2^{2}×3×499 Posts 
Quote:
I would say the longest gap during the GIMPS project is between the discovery of the exponent 42643801 giving M46 (June 12, 2009) and 43112609 giving M47 (August 23, 2008). The larger of the two was discovered first, so that's 293 days. Using 4byte two's complement integers, that's 2^32  293 = 4294967003 days. Your basic claim (in post #214 to this thread) is Quote:
In fact, not all the exponents between 57,885,161 and 74,207,281 have been doublechecked. (I don't think any additional exponents less than 82,589,933 yielding Mersenne primes will be discovered) The GIMPS milestones include "All exponents up to xxxxxxxxx have been tested at least once." At present, "xxxxxxxx" is nowhere near 168,000,000. It's not even close to 117,000,000 which had already been suggested in this post (#188 to this thread) as a possible upper bound for the next Mersenne prime exponent. AFAIK you have not contributed to the effort of testing exponents between 82,589,933 and 168,000,000 in order to validate the part of your claim that no exponents yielding Mersenne primes exist in that range. Nor have you found an exponent in your pet range which yields a Mersenne prime. You have, however, eliminated a number of candidates in your pet range by finding factors. 

20220820, 14:11  #381  
Undefined
"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair
2·3,301 Posts 
Quote:
I don't see any reason to discourage people to test whatever exponents that want. Just because some people are hyperfocussed on the leading edge stuff doesn't make it the only thing we should care about. Nor does it mean any other testing not currently advancing their goals is worth anything less. Go for it tuckerkao, keep testing your exponents. Good luck. 

20220820, 14:26  #382  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
6844_{10} Posts 
Quote:
I find 40 verified PRP first tests by tuckerkao between 82M and 169M, and 1 unverified: https://www.mersenne.org/report_prp/...=tuckerkao&B1= and one unverified LL first test: https://www.mersenne.org/report_ll/?...=tuckerkao&B1= Most are in 168169M. But ten of those verified PRP run by tuckerkao are 103.x M, as is the sole LL first test. (Didn't find anything under drsardonicus or slight variations though. Maybe running under a different alias, or a different work type?) Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20220820 at 14:26 

20220820, 14:46  #383  
Feb 2017
Nowhere
2^{2}×3×499 Posts 
Quote:


20220822, 18:25  #384 
"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020
Head Base M168202123
1100001010_{2} Posts 
When people contribute to the frontwave, their efforts tend to be forgotten faster and easier once the milestone passes through that area unless the total contribution is as massive as Ben Delo's.
Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 20220822 at 18:27 
20220822, 23:06  #385  
If I May
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados
2×5×11×97 Posts 
Quote:
Every effort is valued. And recorded. Every test reduces the entropy slightly. You and yours introducing noise into these serious exercises is just something we have grown used to dealing with. Thanks for being part of the equation so we can prove we have filtered out the noise. Quick question: Do you and yours get paid by the hour, the day, or the job? 

Thread Tools  
Similar Threads  
Thread  Thread Starter  Forum  Replies  Last Post 
Predict M50  Uncwilly  Lounge  65  20180106 17:11 
Predict M#50...  Raman  Lounge  3  20161003 19:23 
Predict M44...  Xyzzy  Lounge  66  20140201 14:45 
Predict M45...  ewmayer  Lounge  215  20080917 21:14 
Predict M42  Uncwilly  Lounge  22  20050227 02:11 