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[LaurV]

Originally Posted by kriesel

That's what we used to call "squinty-print".

You should change your viewer/browser/glasses/age...
Here we can see it large enough to be read from 5 meters or more (we have average eyesight, about same age like you, and wear glasses too).

[greenskull]

A week ago I corrected my prediction regarding All tests below M57885161 moment from Nov 22 to Nov 16 by 6 days.
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...1&postcount=31

What we have at the moment looks like this:


The difference between kriesel's forecast and mine is more than a month. The intrigue is growing :)

[kriesel]

Sorting https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...execm=1&extf=1 by estimated completion,
1) look toward the end: latest completion date estimate for which expire time is after ETA (indicating probable completion before reassignment) is 2021-09-26.
2) look toward the beginning: latest expiration date for those that have stopped updating days or weeks ago is 24 days from now, so also 2021-09-26 (57836003) to expiration. It and similar will be assigned someone with a track record of completing within 10 days, so unless poached (providing earlier completion up to 57885161), or abandoned by the new recipient delaying it with another expiration/reassignment, it will take until ~Oct 7 or sooner, probably ~Oct 2. (Drkirby and some others have hardware that can do such an exponent in ~1 day.)
3) Likely completion date of all remaining exponents below Mp#48* is the later of the dates from the two points above.
4) All these exponents are cat 0 now; recycled by the server if not started within 10 days or completed within 30.

The above is quite consistent with kriesel's previous projections produced by a completely different method (currently indicating ~2021-09-28).

Greenskull's revised projection is Nov 16, 40 days later than Oct 7.
For greenskull's projection to be accurate or optimistic, multiple expirations or recycles must occur on the same remaining exponent(s), and no poaches that offset them. For example, 2021-09-26 expiration + 30 days second expiration is 2021-10-26, still short of Nov 16 by 3 weeks.

The completion rate in the final ~12 days of reaching 56M was ~1.7/day. There are now 52 left to Mp#48*; 52/1.7 ~ 30 days -> ~Oct 2. (Daily rate in the month before the final ~2 weeks was ~2.34/day. Averaging for ~4 weeks, ~2/day, gives ~26 days, ~Sep 28.)

Originally Posted by slandrum

There are assignments that will expire in mid October

Latest expiration is now Sep 29, and that one is estimated to complete on Sep 4.

[greenskull]

In theory, of course, the situation could develop along a solid green curve that reflects kriesel's vision.



But it seems to me that such an outcome is unlikely.

Since we are running between two threads, I will leave here a link to my comment in another thread, which I wrote half an hour earlier:
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...0&postcount=33

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by greenskull

But it seems to me that such an outcome is unlikely.

"Don't underestimate the force" (of denial)

[ATH]

All exponents below 104 286 673 have been tested at least once.

104,286,673 is the 5,994,166th prime number, so we are very close to 1st time checking + factoring the first 6 million prime exponents. The 6000000th prime is: 104,395,301, so only that single exponent 104,286,673 remaining.

[greenskull]

Originally Posted by kriesel

"Don't underestimate the force" (of denial)

Come what may.
We don’t bet kidneys :)

[kriesel]

In about 5 days, the lowest unverified exponent value will jump by about 1/3 million, with the completion of 57223591 DC, assuming the ETAs of the lowest few exponents at https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...tf=1&exfirst=1 are what occurs.

Current projection from the 56M-history analogy is ~Sept 28, while the alternate method gives ~Oct 3, for completing verification up to M57885161.

[greenskull]

Originally Posted by kriesel

In about 5 days, the lowest unverified exponent value will jump by about 1/3 million...
...Current projection from the 56M-history analogy is ~Sept 28, while the alternate method gives ~Oct 3, for completing verification up to M57885161.

Unbelievable :)

[greenskull]

What we have at the moment. We have nothing special.



I still stick to my early November 16th prediction.
I admit that the cherished moment may come a little earlier (let's say a couple of days), but for now I will not catch fleas :)

[kriesel]

1 expires in about a day, the other completes
https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...chk=1&excert=1