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Old 2008-09-17, 01:27   #1
ixfd64
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During the discovery of the last four Mersenne primes, I've experienced something quite interesting, and frankly, a bit freaky.

In generally, I rarely check the PrimeNet status page. However, I seem to get a premonitory feeling right before a Mersenne prime is discovered.

1. In early December 2005, I started to check the PrimeNet status page compulsively - like once every few hours or so. Sure enough, M43 was reported just a few days later.

2. I had completely forgotten about GIMPS, but I suddenly felt the urge to check the GIMPS website on the morning of September 6, 2006. It turns out that M44 had been reported to the server just two days ago.

3. A few weeks ago, I had a slight feeling that a new Mersenne prime would be discovered soon. I started checking the GIMPS website regularly, and "M45" popped up.

4. Here's what's really freaky. After I noticed that "M45" had been reported to the server, I had a strange thought: What if another Mersenne prime was discovered before the verification of M45 was even complete? I also had a feeling that if this did happen, the second prime would be smaller than the first one. I think this is what made me subconsciously decide to post "Holy new Mersenne prime, Batman!" instead of "Holy M45, Batman!"

I then brushed off the thought, thinking that it could never happen. But two weeks later, another Mersenne prime was indeed reported!

Several months before M45 and M46 were found, I imagined them in the 36M and 43M range. Boy, I was pretty close!

Finally, I keep getting a feeling that the following would happen:


1. A third prime will be discovered early this December, and it will be in the 45M range. The discoverer will be Curtis Cooper again.
2. A prime will be discovered next May, and it will be in the 48M range.
3. There is an undiscovered prime in the 28M range.
4. Curtis Cooper will have discovered four Mersenne primes by the end of 2010.

I guess we'll find out the truth in a few years.

Anyways, has any of you ever had any premonitory feelings right before a Mersenne prime is discovered?

Last fiddled with by ixfd64 on 2008-09-17 at 01:28
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Old 2008-09-17, 04:34   #2
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Especially, has anyone made a contemporaneous (i.e., at the time you felt them, not later after some other event could occur) written record of all premonitory feelings related to Mersenne primes?

Last fiddled with by cheesehead on 2008-09-17 at 04:35
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Old 2008-09-17, 10:24   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cheesehead View Post
Especially, has anyone made a contemporaneous (i.e., at the time you felt them, not later after some other event could occur) written record of all premonitory feelings related to Mersenne primes?
Same thing I was thinking (but, admittedly, in smaller words ).
If you get these premonitory feelings often but only record when they're correct, they're probably just random chance.
So let's just see if your 4 predictions at the bottom will work out.

I haven't had any "premonitory feelings" before a Mersenne prime was discovered, but sometimes I feel like I do in discovering the primes I'm searching for with NPLB (not so much that I think/know for some reason that I'll find one, but it just seems to be that I'll keep thinking that it's been a long time since my last prime...but in retrospect, it's probably really just random chance and how the prime distribution works).
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Old 2008-09-22, 16:46   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixfd64 View Post
3. There is an undiscovered prime in the 28M range.
Maybe I should start testing in that range...
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Old 2008-09-22, 19:46   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Damian View Post
Maybe I should start testing in that range...
Don't poach anyone's assignment, though!
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Old 2008-09-23, 20:20   #6
Orgasmic Troll
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixfd64 View Post
During the discovery of the last four Mersenne primes, I've experienced something quite interesting, and frankly, a bit freaky.

In generally, I rarely check the PrimeNet status page. However, I seem to get a premonitory feeling right before a Mersenne prime is discovered.

1. In early December 2005, I started to check the PrimeNet status page compulsively - like once every few hours or so. Sure enough, M43 was reported just a few days later.

2. I had completely forgotten about GIMPS, but I suddenly felt the urge to check the GIMPS website on the morning of September 6, 2006. It turns out that M44 had been reported to the server just two days ago.

3. A few weeks ago, I had a slight feeling that a new Mersenne prime would be discovered soon. I started checking the GIMPS website regularly, and "M45" popped up.

4. Here's what's really freaky. After I noticed that "M45" had been reported to the server, I had a strange thought: What if another Mersenne prime was discovered before the verification of M45 was even complete? I also had a feeling that if this did happen, the second prime would be smaller than the first one. I think this is what made me subconsciously decide to post "Holy new Mersenne prime, Batman!" instead of "Holy M45, Batman!"

I then brushed off the thought, thinking that it could never happen. But two weeks later, another Mersenne prime was indeed reported!

Several months before M45 and M46 were found, I imagined them in the 36M and 43M range. Boy, I was pretty close!

Finally, I keep getting a feeling that the following would happen:


1. A third prime will be discovered early this December, and it will be in the 45M range. The discoverer will be Curtis Cooper again.
2. A prime will be discovered next May, and it will be in the 48M range.
3. There is an undiscovered prime in the 28M range.
4. Curtis Cooper will have discovered four Mersenne primes by the end of 2010.

I guess we'll find out the truth in a few years.

Anyways, has any of you ever had any premonitory feelings right before a Mersenne prime is discovered?
care to make a $100 wager on 1 and 2?

Last fiddled with by Orgasmic Troll on 2008-09-23 at 20:20
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Old 2009-01-01, 08:22   #7
ixfd64
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It seems my first prediction was wrong. :(
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Old 2009-01-01, 10:28   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixfd64 View Post
It seems my first prediction was wrong. :(
I'm not surprised. Your sixth sense seems to be very optimistic.
If you anticipate primes frequently enough you can always claim
to have "foreseen" the next one.

David

Last fiddled with by davieddy on 2009-01-01 at 10:32
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Old 2009-01-01, 15:36   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixfd64 View Post
4. Here's what's really freaky. After I noticed that "M45" had been reported to the server, I had a strange thought: What if another Mersenne prime was discovered before the verification of M45 was even complete? I also had a feeling that if this did happen, the second prime would be smaller than the first one.
I had a similar thought after M43112609 was discovered.
But can you tell if you had it after M32582657 as well? Quite likely, but you've forgotten about it.
As far as I can remember, after every discovery I thought something like "why not another prime just a few weeks later?"
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Old 2009-01-01, 18:18   #10
petrw1
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixfd64 View Post
3. There is an undiscovered prime in the 28M range.
There are 475 left and I have 2 of them ... better than standard odds.
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Old 2009-01-01, 18:32   #11
petrw1
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I've never had a Mersenne premonition but I have had 3 others. I like to call them premonitions but I understand they could just as well be flukes or coincidences.

1. At a Christmas party about 15 years ago they were drawing door prizes. Part way through the draws as the announcer started to say: "And the next prize goes to ..." I spontaneously jumped up and threw my hands in the air and cheered. As the people around me gave me the "wacko" look the announcer called my name! Their expressions quickly changed.

2. Golfing about 5 years ago, I was part of a 4-man team. At the "longest-putt" hole we were about 50 feet away. Being the poorest golfer on the team my team mates told me to putt first to give them a read. Without a pause I said: "No, I am going to make this putt and put my name on the sign"; and I did. They were quite shocked.

3. Curling about a month ago I watched as my rock was on a path to miss the rock I was asked to remove by a good foot. My sweepers even turned away giving up on it. With about 10 feet to go before my rock passed the target rock I called out "Here it comes!". About a second later it caught some debris on the ice (which I did NOT see) and turned sharply and hit the target rock.
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