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Old 2009-01-01, 23:28   #12
joblack
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixfd64 View Post
1. A third prime will be discovered early this December, and it will be in the 45M range. The discoverer will be Curtis Cooper again.
2. A prime will be discovered next May, and it will be in the 48M range.
3. There is an undiscovered prime in the 28M range.
4. Curtis Cooper will have discovered four Mersenne primes by the end of 2010.

I guess we'll find out the truth in a few years.

Anyways, has any of you ever had any premonitory feelings right before a Mersenne prime is discovered?
I suspected that prime hunters are rational people. Your first 'feeling' was wrong - no new m-prime number found.

A new mersenne number was overdue - so no 6th sense needed
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Old 2009-01-01, 23:41   #13
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Again, a key aspect is to record ones premonitions at the time they occur, not later after they can be verified. Only by doing this, and also by being thorough about it -- recording all premonitions -- can one determine any truth about them. Otherwise, our natural self-fooling and memory-selection/distortion tendencies interfere with any truth- or value-finding about them.

I urge any of you who are interested in premonitions to start developing a habit of recording them (with date/time/place/other circumstances) ASAP when they occur to you. Though you may forget to do so in many cases at first, you can train yourselves to get better at this over time. (When you forget to record one immediately, but realize that later, write down the details ASAP then, including of course the matter of when/where you were reminded-to later.) When you reach the level of practically always doing this, you will have a valuable dataset with which to compare later outcomes!
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Old 2009-01-01, 23:54   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cheesehead View Post
When you reach the level of practically always doing this, you will have a valuable dataset with which to compare later outcomes!
It´s like in prophecies - if you have enough people with different dates and topics at least one is right.

Check out lottery - the lottery winners don´t have 'premonition' either - just luck.

Uhhh ... I get a premonition right away: I will find the next Mersenne Prime number in 2009 ... you can gratulate me later.

Last fiddled with by joblack on 2009-01-02 at 00:05
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Old 2009-01-02, 00:04   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petrw1 View Post
I've never had a Mersenne premonition but I have had 3 others. I like to call them premonitions but I understand they could just as well be flukes or coincidences.

1. At a Christmas party about 15 years ago they were drawing door prizes. Part way through the draws as the announcer started to say: "And the next prize goes to ..." I spontaneously jumped up and threw my hands in the air and cheered. As the people around me gave me the "wacko" look the announcer called my name! Their expressions quickly changed.

2. Golfing about 5 years ago, I was part of a 4-man team. At the "longest-putt" hole we were about 50 feet away. Being the poorest golfer on the team my team mates told me to putt first to give them a read. Without a pause I said: "No, I am going to make this putt and put my name on the sign"; and I did. They were quite shocked.

3. Curling about a month ago I watched as my rock was on a path to miss the rock I was asked to remove by a good foot. My sweepers even turned away giving up on it. With about 10 feet to go before my rock passed the target rock I called out "Here it comes!". About a second later it caught some debris on the ice (which I did NOT see) and turned sharply and hit the target rock.
These are called luck or coincidence ...

Last fiddled with by joblack on 2009-01-02 at 00:04
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Old 2009-01-02, 00:09   #16
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I can fairly accurately predict the kind of baby a pregnant woman will get. (boy or girl). From the last 31 pregnancies I've guessed 23 right. Still might be coincidence, but it sure feels 'right' :)

If I calculated all right I have a 0,533% chance to get 23+...
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Old 2009-01-02, 00:11   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joblack View Post
It´s like in prophecies - if you have enough people with different dates and topics at least one is right.

Check out lottery - the lottery winners don´t have 'premonition' either - just luck.
Perhaps I need to explain that I expect that most people who follow my recommendations will eventually realize that, too, if they don't already.

Quote:
Uhhh ... I get a premonition right away: I will find the next Mersenne Prime number in 2009 ... you can gratulate me later.
Or ... we can check your accuracy.
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Old 2009-06-10, 21:27   #18
ixfd64
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixfd64 View Post
2. A prime will be discovered next May, and it will be in the 48M range.
I'd say I was quite close, in terms of the date. M47 was discovered in April and first noticed in June. May is between those two months. However, I was a bit off on the size, though.
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Old 2009-06-10, 21:46   #19
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Have you kept records such as I recommended above?
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Old 2009-06-10, 23:56   #20
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Hey ixfd64 if you have additionally a premonition for the Euro Millions numbers (5 numbers from 1 - 50, 2 'stars' from 1-9) let me know ... best before Friday ;o) ...
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Old 2010-03-22, 22:00   #21
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixfd64 View Post
During the discovery of the last four Mersenne primes, I've experienced something quite interesting, and frankly, a bit freaky.

Finally, I keep getting a feeling that the following would happen:

3. There is an undiscovered prime in the 28M range.
Only 1 left according to: http://www.mersenne.org/primenet/
and this must be it:

Code:
Exponent Status Data  
28002781 No factors below 2^67 
 P-1 B1=160000, B2=3160000 
 Assigned LL testing to "eugene2x" on 2009-02-07 
 History B1=160000, B2=3160000 by "Carsten Kossendey" on 2009-08-22
and eugene2x will be the lucky tester.

If he would have known in advance he wouldn't have waited 14 months to complete it.
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Old 2010-03-22, 23:16   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by petrw1 View Post
Only 1 left according to: http://www.mersenne.org/primenet/
and this must be it:

Code:
Exponent Status Data  
28002781 No factors below 2^67 
 P-1 B1=160000, B2=3160000 
 Assigned LL testing to "eugene2x" on 2009-02-07 
 History B1=160000, B2=3160000 by "Carsten Kossendey" on 2009-08-22
and eugene2x will be the lucky tester.

If he would have known in advance he wouldn't have waited 14 months to complete it.
Hey, you never know...there could be one hiding for when the 28M range is doublechecked.
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