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Old 2020-08-14, 23:20   #1
tuckerkao
 
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Default U.S. Presidential 2020 Polls and Predictions

The top toss-up states and will likely follow the current trends until the very last minute.

Florida: a must-win state for Trump, Biden has a considerable chance there.
Pennsylvania: Biden is only very slightly ahead, don't rule out the hidden Trump voters there.
Wisconsin: A democratic governor is ruling, however the voter turnout is still the uncertainty.

Ohio: No Republicans have ever won the presidential election without this state, another Trump's must-win state.
North Carolina: Trump is coming back in a steady pace after the Republican convention, still very tight.
Arizona: This traditional Republican state has swung more than usual this election year.

Texas: Biden only has some chance, probably shouldn't invest too much campaign funds here.
Georgia: It's a battleground only because the recent polls say so, have to watch the trends longer.

For Biden: Must encourage all the African American and Latino voters to get out early as soon as the mail-in ballots are available, so they won't run into the postal traffic jams during the final week. Don't underestimate Trump from the inaccurate public polls.

For Trump: Must flatten down the pandemic curves, best if possible to have less than 400 daily deaths nationwide from the 7-days average stats. Bounce back the economy and create more of the much-needed jobs which are the main Trump's promises.
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Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 2020-08-14 at 23:55
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Old 2020-08-14, 23:50   #2
chalsall
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckerkao View Post
The top toss-up states and will likely follow the current trends until the very last minute.
They're so cute when they're young and inexperienced.

Aren't they?
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Old 2020-08-15, 00:33   #3
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Don't discount our dark horse:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...rstate_Compact
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Old 2020-08-15, 00:46   #4
chalsall
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Very interesting!!! Thanks, I was not aware of this.

No doubt many visits to high courts, but a very important move.
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Old 2020-08-15, 06:01   #5
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Originally Posted by chalsall View Post
They're so cute when they're young and inexperienced.

Aren't they?
I wish they can receive the envelope like the screenshot below for the mail-in-ballots.
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Old 2020-08-15, 19:33   #6
ewmayer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
"...As of July 2020, [the NPVIC] has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia, although it is suspended in Colorado. Together, they have 196 electoral votes counting Colorado, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 73% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force. Certain legal questions, however, may affect implementation of the compact.

...The compact mandates a July 20 deadline every presidential election year, six months before Inauguration Day, to determine whether the agreement goes into effect for that particular election."

Even setting aside the constitutionality questions, In terms of the upcoming election that's not a dark horse, it's a 0-probability event.
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Old 2020-08-15, 19:51   #7
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Even setting aside the constitutionality questions, In terms of the upcoming election that's not a dark horse, it's a 0-probability event.
I would argue there's upside simply in the fact it is being seriously discussed (finally).

An aside... I actually like lawyers. They are artists of language; and in some ways are actually programmers. Their code just runs on wetware instead...
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Old 2020-08-15, 23:09   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ewmayer View Post
"...As of July 2020, [the NPVIC] has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia, although it is suspended in Colorado. Together, they have 196 electoral votes counting Colorado, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 73% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force. Certain legal questions, however, may affect implementation of the compact.
In order for the national popular votes to be the final decider of the presidential election, the Constitution has to be amended, also what if the numbers are extraordinary close between #1 and #2, how long will the national recounting process take?

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Old 2020-08-15, 23:28   #9
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...also what if the numbers are extraordinary close between #1 and #2, how long will the national recounting process take?
Almost by definition, unknown at this time in this extraordinary time.

You're familiar with the concept of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD).

Correct?
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Old 2020-08-15, 23:32   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckerkao View Post
In order for the national popular votes to be the final decider of the presidential election, the Constitution has to be amended
Not necessarily - the Constitution gives states the rights to set their own rules for allocating electoral votes, within reason (e.g. schemes may not violate the 14th amendment). The Wikiarticle (psst - this is your loud hint to actually read it) makes clear that the key constitutional hurdle for the interstate-compact scheme is the so-called "compact clause" of the Constitution, but does not rule out that some form of interstate scheme might be found by the courts to not, in fact, require an act of congress as laid out by said clause.
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Old 2020-08-15, 23:47   #11
chalsall
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Quote:
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Not necessarily - the Constitution gives states the rights to set their own rules for allocating electoral votes, within reason (e.g. schemes may not violate the 14th amendment).
Absolutely no disrespect intended, but this comes across a bit like the programmers debugging the code after it was written. And, actually, after they were dead, and so others were debugging their code.

Could you please tell me where in the US Constitution assault rifles are a guaranteed right?

Muskets are different things...

Just saying (as one of many examples; and with no skin in the game beyond being an observer)...
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