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Old 2022-03-06, 20:32   #155
kriesel
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
this would make it hard to explain his apparent fear of being poisoned...
"memories of the last moments of life are greatly amplified". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Univer...er_(1992_film)
Also, consider what he's had done to some of his political adversaries. Perhaps anticipating a karma boomerang. Polonium milkshake?

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2022-03-08 at 22:48 Reason: fix link
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Old 2022-03-06, 23:26   #156
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On possible futures https://www.foreignaffairs.com/artic...f-russia-loses
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Old 2022-03-07, 12:44   #157
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USD 1.00 == RUB 138.57
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Old 2022-03-07, 13:19   #158
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According to https://data.oecd.org/conversion/exchange-rates.htm

in 2007-2008, 1USD= =RUB25
2009, USD 1 = RUB 31
2014,1 $= RUB 38
2015, 1$= RUB 60
And upto 2021, 1$= RUB 75.


If you compare to Japan,
2007, 1$= 117 yen
2012, 1$=80 yen
2013, 1$ 100 yen
and since then it hover around 1$ =110 yen




The trouble for Russia is if the trend mentionned by xilman is a durable one.
That will cause hyper-inflation. IF the salary follow the inflation a bit, then loan will be cheap. oh well.


For a different perspective look up the 'big mac index' https://www.economist.com/big-mac-index
Code:
 THE BIG MAC index was invented by The Economist  in 1986 as a lighthearted
 guide to whether currencies are at their  โ€œcorrectโ€ level. It is based on the 
theory of purchasing-power parity  (PPP), the notion that in the long run 
exchange rates should move  towards the rate that would equalise the prices
 of an identical basket  of goods and services (in this case, a burger) in any
 two countries.Burgernomics  was never intended as a precise gauge of currency
 misalignment, merely a  tool to make exchange-rate theory more digestible. Yet the
 Big Mac  index has become a global standard, included in several economic 
 textbooks and the subject of dozens of academic studies. For those who  take their
 fast food more seriously, we also calculate a gourmet version  of the index.

Last fiddled with by firejuggler on 2022-03-07 at 13:52
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Old 2022-03-07, 13:30   #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post

This is an excellent article. Its basic premise is that no matter the outcome, Putin has wrecked his country as well.
It is hard to imagine an outcome that is not horrible and depressing.
Putin has truly sown the wind and will reap the whirlwind.
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Old 2022-03-07, 15:04   #160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firejuggler View Post
<snip>
The trouble for Russia is if the trend mentionned by xilman is a durable one.
That will cause hyper-inflation. IF the salary follow the inflation a bit, then loan will be cheap. oh well.
<snip>
I'm not so sure about that. Cheap loans depend on low interest rates.

On February 28, Russia's Central Bank raised its "key interest rate" from 9.5% to 20%.

In other cheery news for the Russian economy...

The Moscow Exchange has been closed since February 28, and will remain closed through Tuesday March 8.

On March 2, Russian investment pundit Alex Butmanov opened a bottle of soda water while on RBC TV's "Trading in a New Way" and drank a toast: "Dear stock market, you were close to us, you were interesting. Rest in peace dear friend." The anchor, Elina Tikhonova, was rather surprised.

On March 4, the Moscow Exchange was suspended from the World Federation of Exchanges.
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Old 2022-03-07, 15:26   #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tServo View Post
It is hard to imagine an outcome that is not horrible and depressing.
That's generally true of criminal violence at all scales, from international to individual.
Thought experiment: suppose Ukraine had retained the USSR-produced nukes present on its soil when the USSR dissolved. Would Putin have dared test Ukraine's resolve in that case? Generally, tyrants, from the schoolyard or neighborhood up, prefer disarmed victims.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2022-03-07 at 15:27
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Old 2022-03-07, 21:18   #162
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I am bemused by the talks between Russia and Ukraine over "humanitarian corridors" to allow war refugees to flee Ukrainian cities. From the attempts to implement these agreements, it appears the Russians merely want to get the civilians out of the cities before killing them, so as to preserve as much of the infrastructure of the cities as possible before repopulating them with Russians.

To me, it seems that this idea is consistent with Russia's offer to evacuate Ukrainians to resettlement areas (ะฑั€ะฐั‚ัะบะธะต ะผะพะณะธะปั‹) in Russia and Belarus. (I think that's the correct translation. Feel free to check it.)
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Old 2022-03-08, 02:25   #163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
That's generally true of criminal violence at all scales, from international to individual.
Thought experiment: suppose Ukraine had retained the USSR-produced nukes present on its soil when the USSR dissolved. Would Putin have dared test Ukraine's resolve in that case? Generally, tyrants, from the schoolyard or neighborhood up, prefer disarmed victims.

I'm sure they now wish they had retained at least a few.
2 points:
(1) this may impact any attempt to negotiate nuclear arms reductions in countries like the Hermit Kingdom or Iran.
They will point out, see what happened to Ukraine? I'm sure the Israelis are feeling pretty smug about their choice.

(2) Nuclear weapons are notoriously VERY expensive to maintain in working order. This would be doubly so
since Ukraine probably didn't have the physical infrastructure to deal with these things. All that stuff was probably
in Russia.
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Old 2022-03-08, 05:36   #164
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I believe this Russo-Ukraine crisis will eventually cool down and the real nuclear World War III will break out Between the Allies and Russia during the winter season from Dec 2036 to Feb 2037.
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Old 2022-03-08, 05:49   #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tuckerkao View Post
during the winter season from Dec 2036 to Feb 2037.
Did you confer with Greenskull to make such a precise prediction?
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