mersenneforum.org  

Go Back   mersenneforum.org > Great Internet Mersenne Prime Search > Data > Marin's Mersenne-aries

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2021-09-28, 08:16   #78
greenskull
Xebeche
 
greenskull's Avatar
 
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺

14316 Posts
Default

What we have at the moment:

Click image for larger version

Name:	Nov16_2021_14.png
Views:	46
Size:	116.7 KB
ID:	25784

Probably kriesel's forecast will be closer to the fact than mine. But it is not exactly :)
greenskull is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-28, 13:22   #79
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

29·199 Posts
Default 3

Quote:
Originally Posted by greenskull View Post
Probably kriesel's forecast will be closer to the fact than mine. But it is not exactly
Did anyone claim to be able to project the conclusion exactly? Given the quantizations of lowest exponent completed, number of exponents remaining, exponent ETAs, client reporting time interval, server view of state of completion of each exponent, and perhaps more, mathematical fits to the historical data, of linear equations that are analog models, will necessarily be inexact representations.

Transition from cat2 systems' assignments expiring to cat0 systems for reassigned exponents creates a substantial increase in slope of the number of remaining exponents versus time. A model that forces overall linear extrapolation on the nonlinear behavior inherent in the assignment rules does not represent that well.

Currently it looks like ~2021-10-02 conclusion with Syntony's assignment, although it could come sooner.
Attached Thumbnails
Click image for larger version

Name:	Mp48alternateestimate2021-09-28.png
Views:	28
Size:	158.4 KB
ID:	25785  
Attached Files
File Type: pdf mp48starexponentdeltas2021-09-28.pdf (22.6 KB, 11 views)
File Type: pdf mp48verificationmilestoneestimate20210928.pdf (34.4 KB, 11 views)
kriesel is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-28, 13:33   #80
greenskull
Xebeche
 
greenskull's Avatar
 
Apr 2019
🌺🙏🌺

32310 Posts
Default

Last update.

Click image for larger version

Name:	Nov16_2021_15.png
Views:	61
Size:	116.8 KB
ID:	25788

All hope for the slow computer OldQC of the user GrunwalderGIMP and Syntony's Kilderkin that process the data a teaspoon per hour :)
greenskull is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-28, 13:40   #81
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502
 
Uncwilly's Avatar
 
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

2·33·5·37 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Currently it looks like ~2021-10-02 conclusion with Syntony's assignment, although it could come sooner.
That month looks like it will have the 58M DC and 105M FTC milestones too. There are a few assignments in the 105-106 interval that will expire after October. George has a hold out too. Otherwise it would be favourable for meeting the 106M milestone in October.
Uncwilly is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-28, 13:42   #82
masser
 
masser's Avatar
 
Jul 2003
wear a mask

32768 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by greenskull View Post
Last update.

Attachment 25788

All hope for the slow computer OldQC of the user GrunwalderGIMP and Syntony's Kilderkin that process the data a teaspoon per hour :)
Thanks for making these graphs. I appreciate seeing the data presented this way.
masser is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-28, 19:36   #83
Prime95
P90 years forever!
 
Prime95's Avatar
 
Aug 2002
Yeehaw, FL

24×32×53 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
George has a hold out too.
Thanks. The gpuowl python script thought the result was uploaded successfully. Resubmitted it manually.

Last fiddled with by Prime95 on 2021-09-28 at 19:53
Prime95 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-28, 19:46   #84
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

29×199 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
That month looks like it will have the 58M DC and 105M FTC milestones too.
Ben Delo has several nearing expiration with substantial progress made and no updates in nearly a month, in the 105M-106M range. It would be unfortunate for all that work to be lost.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-09-28 at 19:47
kriesel is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-29, 03:54   #85
slandrum
 
Jan 2021
California

3×67 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Ben Delo has several nearing expiration with substantial progress made and no updates in nearly a month, in the 105M-106M range. It would be unfortunate for all that work to be lost.
If they aren't completed within a couple days after they start processing, his exponents generally expire out. There's any of a number of possible reasons for it. I imagine sometimes he has something else he needs to direct some portion of his fleet of machines to do.

You can find plenty of cases where his exponent expired out then he picked it up for assignment again and 2nd time around processed it to completion.

Last fiddled with by slandrum on 2021-09-29 at 03:56
slandrum is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-29, 09:45   #86
JCoveiro
 
"Jorge Coveiro"
Nov 2006
Moura, Portugal

111012 Posts
Default

Hi people.

Which exponents are left to verify M48?

I can help in double-checking.
JCoveiro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-29, 10:07   #87
kruoli
 
kruoli's Avatar
 
"Oliver"
Sep 2017
Porta Westfalica, DE

3·5·43 Posts
Default

There are only three exponents left and those are all already assigned and being worked on, but you can of course help with verifying M49.
kruoli is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 2021-09-29, 10:22   #88
kriesel
 
kriesel's Avatar
 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest

577110 Posts
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by slandrum View Post
You can find plenty of cases where his exponent expired out then he picked it up for assignment again and 2nd time around processed it to completion.
Since Ben alone accounts for ~half of primality tests completed, Ben's scripts taking a second crack at the same exponent after an expiration is a coin toss. But the lost progress of the first expired attempt is still a regrettable loss.
kriesel is online now   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Let's finish primality verification through Mp#49*, M(74 207 281) firejuggler Marin's Mersenne-aries 35 2021-10-15 17:22
Mission Creep davieddy PrimeNet 14 2011-12-10 20:55
Doing more about LL test verification jasong Software 13 2010-03-10 18:53
Mission Accomplished garo Soap Box 13 2009-01-22 20:10
First mission GP2 Completed Missions 2 2003-09-28 23:16

All times are UTC. The time now is 23:46.


Fri Oct 15 23:46:48 UTC 2021 up 84 days, 18:15, 0 users, load averages: 1.22, 1.13, 1.17

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

This forum has received and complied with 0 (zero) government requests for information.

Permission is granted to copy, distribute and/or modify this document under the terms of the GNU Free Documentation License, Version 1.2 or any later version published by the Free Software Foundation.
A copy of the license is included in the FAQ.