Predict M52

[mathwiz]

Originally Posted by ONeil

No thanks I want to hear the LL bell with 2^109947391-1, the LL bios bell confirming its a Mersenne Prime. I trust the Lucas lemer test ok but not the covid vaccine.

Let's make a deal: if that number turns out to be composite, you'll get the vaccine? Is that how much confidence you have?

[moebius]

Originally Posted by mathwiz

if that number turns out to be composite, you'll get the vaccine? Is that how much confidence you have?

I would answer: "Only if Billy's biochip is already included in the vaccination. Otherwise it's not worth the effort"

[tuckerkao]

Originally Posted by moebius

Kriesel has already eliminated the exponent 131508427 at 2020-12-23 20:10 ThX!

Since Ben Delo is currently mass testing the exponents in around 101,800,000, I'd like to have an estimate(how many more months?) when will he and/or his group reach the range of 103,300,000 to 103,400,000?

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

This is the list of currently active guesses (those stricken through were previous guesses that have been replaced under the rules).

Something that is really interesting. Today, is the day that is the mean of all the rational date guesses (those less than 1500 days from the discovery of M51). AND today, we have only 1 exponent (100165523) untested below the mean of all sane exponent guesses (sane being: less than twice M51 and the date for the guess as above.) So, if the wisdom of the crowd is any good, we are in the right range. The average time between Mersenne discoveries since the start of the 1990's is 515 day (or 478 days is we track since M34). We are over the average, but still haven't passed the average time plus 1 std dev (April 11, 2021).

[tuckerkao]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

We are over the average, but still haven't passed the average time plus 1 std dev (April 11, 2021).

I think this information has indirectly answered my question. Ben Delo's team will likely to mass testing exponents between 103,300,000 to 103,400,000 around April 11, 2021.

Whether there is a real Mersenne Prime hidden within this range, only time will tell.

[tuckerkao]

Ben Delo just finished testing and certifying M102,125,743 which signified he was only 2 full weeks before reaching M102,374,113