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2020-01-29, 19:42   #1
a1call

"Rashid Naimi"
Oct 2015
Out of my Body

2·7·127 Posts
Mathematics of a panic are geopolitical

The article is somewhat too detailed for my time, but:

Quote:
 Models are only as good as the assumptions on which they are based. If a model makes predictions which are out of line with observed results and the mathematics is correct, the initial assumptions must change to make the model useful.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathem...ctious_disease

In regards to the CoronaVirus:

* (I assume that,) it is assumed that the virus can only be spread from animals to humans or from humans to other humans

* Earlier on during the outbreak there were News-Articles from China that some people in the epicenter of the outbreak had contracted the disease without having any contact with people from the market where the disease is thought to have initiated

* There are now consensuses among Chinese-Researchers that the disease can be transmitted asymptomatically by carriers which have no symptoms

** This assumption was doubted by other researchers in the beginning and now is expressed as the transmission is much more likely by symptomatic carriers than asymptomatic ones

* I find it short-sighted not to consider that the virus may procreate in the environment without the help of (Macro)-animal or human carriers. It is known that the flu viruses can persist on inanimate objects for some time and there may just be other means (perhaps other microorganisms) that may help re-procreation of viruses.

** This might explain the explosive spread of flu viruses where symphonic carriers have been ruled out

*Assuming an incubation period of 14 days:

**Theoretically speaking if all the people avoid close contact for just 15 days then the carriers could be recognized and the epidemic could be eradicated

**Theoretically speaking if all the people would live in close contact in groups numbering a maximum of 2 people avoiding close contact for just 30 days would be sufficient to eradicate the epidemic

** ...
..
**Theoretically speaking if all the people would live in close contact in groups numbering a maximum of n people avoiding close contact for just n.(14+1) days would be sufficient to eradicate the epidemic

Just my 2 cents

Last fiddled with by kladner on 2020-02-05 at 05:50

2020-01-29, 22:34   #2
a1call

"Rashid Naimi"
Oct 2015
Out of my Body

6F216 Posts

Quote:
 Based on these results, the authors said the 2019-nCoV likely originated in bats. However, no bats were sold at the Huanan seafood market, which suggests that another yet-to-be-identified animal acted as a steppingstone of sorts to transmit the virus to humans. ... A previous study suggested snakes, which were sold at the Huanan seafood market, as a possible source of 2019-nCoV. However, some experts have criticized the study, saying it's unclear if coronaviruses can infect snakes.
https://www.livescience.com/new-coro...igin-bats.html

2020-01-30, 00:19   #3

"Sam Laur"
Dec 2018
Turku, Finland

22×7×11 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call * Earlier on during the outbreak there were News-Articles from China that some people in the epicenter of the outbreak had contracted the disease without having any contact with people from the market where the disease is thought to have initiated * There are now consensuses among Chinese-Researchers that the disease can be transmitted asymptomatically by carriers which have no symptoms
Asymptomatic spreading is very much a thing. For example, the four confirmed cases in Germany. A person came from China for a couple days of training at a car parts supplier. She only started feeling ill while on the return flight to China, and upon arrival was tested and confirmed to have the virus. Before the trip she had recently visited her parents in Wuhan, but no information on whether they were ill at that point. But a few days after that training session, one German person (who had attended the same training session) started feeling ill, and was confirmed to have the virus as well. Then the next day three more persons were confirmed to have the virus. They didn't attend the training, but were coworkers in close contact with that first infected person.

Timeline:
Jan 21 - training session
Jan 23 - return flight (and Chinese woman feeling ill)
Jan 27 - First German case, feeling ill and case confirmed
Jan 28 - Three more cases confirmed

So it is fast and effective, at least in those cases. A couple references:
https://www.thelocal.de/20200128/fir...ealth-ministry
https://www.thelocal.de/20200128/num...-jumps-to-four

2020-01-30, 00:45   #4
Dr Sardonicus

Feb 2017
Nowhere

22·7·109 Posts

Quote:
This brings to mind a story I read many years ago, in an old (1946) SF anthology, Adventures in Time and Space (Editors: Raymond J. Healy and J. Francis McComas):

Seeds of the Dusk (Novelette) by Raymond Z. Gallun
First published in Astounding Science-Fiction, June 1938

2020-01-30, 00:48   #5
CRGreathouse

Aug 2006

5×1,171 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call * There are now consensuses among Chinese-Researchers that the disease can be transmitted asymptomatically by carriers which have no symptoms
Chinese researchers say there are asymptomatic carriers; US researchers have not been able to verify this. I would bet a large amount of money that the Chinese researchers are correct.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call ** This assumption was doubted by other researchers in the beginning and now is expressed as the transmission is much more likely by symptomatic carriers than asymptomatic ones
Probably.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call * I find it short-sighted not to consider that the virus may procreate in the environment without the help of (Macro)-animal or human carriers.
Definitely not.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call It is known that the flu viruses can persist on inanimate objects for some time and there may just be other means (perhaps other microorganisms) that may help re-procreation of viruses.
It's a freaking RNA virus. It can barely survive outside a body at all.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call *Assuming an incubation period of 14 days:
Too long. Initial estimates were 2-14 days, true, but good data suggests around 5 days now. No one seriously thinks it's longer than a week.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call **Theoretically speaking if all the people avoid close contact for just 15 days then the carriers could be recognized and the epidemic could be eradicated
Yes.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call **Theoretically speaking if all the people would live in close contact in groups numbering a maximum of 2 people avoiding close contact for just 30 days would be sufficient to eradicate the epidemic
No, because a person could be sick for more than 25 days (plus the incubation period of ~5 days).

 2020-01-30, 00:54 #6 a1call     "Rashid Naimi" Oct 2015 Out of my Body 2×7×127 Posts There YouTube tag didn't work so here is what I was looking to: https://youtu.be/x5UY8Xrg6ec Last fiddled with by a1call on 2020-01-30 at 00:57
2020-01-30, 01:23   #7
a1call

"Rashid Naimi"
Oct 2015
Out of my Body

6F216 Posts

Quote:
 Most flu viruses can live one to two days on nonporous surfaces, and 8 to 12 hours on porous surfaces. But a 2006 study found that avian influenza seemed particularly hardy, surviving as long as six days on some surfaces.
Source:
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/15/health/15real.html

While I agree that snakes are not likely to suffer from flu, I still think that single cell organisms with DNA should not necessarily be ruled out as virus replicators.
More microbes are likely present in an uncapped body of water than the entire population of China.

ETA

Quote:
 Even bacteria can get a virus! The viruses that infect bacteria are called bacteriophages, and certain bacteriophages have been studied in detail in the lab (making them some of the viruses we understand best).

ETA Ii For the record & FWIW from the same paper:

Quote:
 Bacteriophages attack only their host bacteria, not human cells, so they are potentially good candidates to treat bacterial diseases in humans.

Last fiddled with by a1call on 2020-01-30 at 02:10

2020-01-30, 02:35   #8
CRGreathouse

Aug 2006

16DF16 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by a1call While I agree that snakes are not likely to suffer from flu, I still think that single cell organisms with DNA should not necessarily be ruled out as virus replicators.
I want you to stop and think this through. Of course single-celled organisms can be used by certain viruses to replicate themselves (bacteriophages, as you mention, are a common example). But what made you say that snakes are unlikely to suffer from the flu? Probably that they're too different from us so that the influenza virus can't replicate in snakes -- perhaps because they're poikilotherms (variable body temperature) or because of some other major difference between snakes and humans. But snakes are very similar to humans compared to how radically different humans and snakes are to bacteria. Bacteria have cell walls, they have microcompartments instead of organelles, etc. Since they don't have mitochondria, it's not even clear to me how compatible their metabolisms are with ours. And when you're hijacking a cell, the details -- and especially the ribosomes -- matter, and since these differ, it seems like a big problem for them to go back and forth.

I don't want to say it's impossible, but it would be a very hard feat.

2020-01-30, 02:39   #9
CRGreathouse

Aug 2006

5×1,171 Posts

Quote:
Originally Posted by a1call
ETA Ii For the record & FWIW from the same paper:
Quote:
 Bacteriophages attack only their host bacteria, not human cells, so they are potentially good candidates to treat bacterial diseases in humans.
This is called "phage therapy" if you want to learn more. It was more popular in the past, and it's making a comeback as antimicrobial resistance is becoming a bigger issue. It's a very surgical approach, no real side effects (unlike antibiotics, which can kill a lot more than the targeted organism), but it can take a lot of work and money to develop a therapy.

 2020-01-30, 03:29 #10 a1call     "Rashid Naimi" Oct 2015 Out of my Body 2×7×127 Posts Thanks for the info and the replies Mr Greathouse. ---------- There is a lot of news and articles about surgical masks and pointers that they are unnecessary, they are ineffective/slightly-effective, in short supply.... I find it surprising that there is no news about there being a run on biohazard masks (which I assume are more effective than surgical masks). Shouldn't there be an effort to mass produce those rather than 3M lose fitting surgical masks?
 2020-01-30, 20:14 #11 pinhodecarlos     "Carlos Pinho" Oct 2011 Milton Keynes, UK 32×503 Posts “ Coronavirus outbreak declared global public health emergency” by WHO.

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