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Old 2021-07-24, 18:09   #78
storm5510
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Originally Posted by xilman View Post
Personally I believe that silence is a very telling answer.
Silence speaks volumes. The longer the silence, the number of volumes will increase.

I suspect many here remember the idea that Gates had about spraying aerosols into the upper atmosphere to partially block sunlight? It seems mother nature is addressing this now by what is happening in the northwestern states and Southwest Canada. I live in Southern Indiana and I have not seen a blue sky day in weeks. I read people in Alaska are saying something similar. If this is happening in Alaska then the particulates have are already made one lap around the globe at higher latitudes. Sometimes, I think I can actually smell it here, like today.

Will we have an abnormally cool autumn and a colder winter? Maybe. All I really know is that it has been hotter than a popcorn fart around here.
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Old 2021-07-24, 18:28   #79
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Quote:
Originally Posted by storm5510 View Post
I suspect many here remember the idea that Gates had about spraying aerosols into the upper atmosphere to partially block sunlight? It seems mother nature is addressing this now by what is happening in the northwestern states and Southwest Canada.
Soot particles absorb the sun light and add to the heat load. Whereas the various schemes being proposed are particles that reflect the sunlight so that it will not add to the heat load.
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Old 2021-07-24, 22:32   #80
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Quote:
Originally Posted by storm5510 View Post
Silence speaks volumes. The longer the silence, the number of volumes will increase.

I suspect many here remember the idea that Gates had about spraying aerosols into the upper atmosphere to partially block sunlight? It seems mother nature is addressing this now by what is happening in the northwestern states and Southwest Canada. I live in Southern Indiana and I have not seen a blue sky day in weeks. I read people in Alaska are saying something similar. If this is happening in Alaska then the particulates have are already made one lap around the globe at higher latitudes. Sometimes, I think I can actually smell it here, like today.

Will we have an abnormally cool autumn and a colder winter? Maybe. All I really know is that it has been hotter than a popcorn fart around here.
I don't think the fires put particles high enough up into the atmosphere - there's the tropopause between the troposphere and the stratosphere, which obstructs the movement of particles either direction, and even a really big wildfire only gets particles 5km or so up. You need big volcanoes to get sulphate aerosols up to the stratosphere and change Earth's albedo in the right direction.
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Old 2021-07-26, 11:57   #81
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Quote:
Originally Posted by storm5510 View Post
Silence speaks volumes. The longer the silence, the number of volumes will increase.

I suspect many here remember the idea that Gates had about spraying aerosols into the upper atmosphere to partially block sunlight? It seems mother nature is addressing this now by what is happening in the northwestern states and Southwest Canada. I live in Southern Indiana and I have not seen a blue sky day in weeks. I read people in Alaska are saying something similar. If this is happening in Alaska then the particulates have are already made one lap around the globe at higher latitudes. Sometimes, I think I can actually smell it here, like today.

Will we have an abnormally cool autumn and a colder winter? Maybe. All I really know is that it has been hotter than a popcorn fart around here.
From a 17 September 2014 BBC program (excuse me, programme) on Global Dimming:
Quote:
NARRATOR: For 15 years Travis had been researching an apparently obscure topic, whether the vapour trails left by aircraft were having a significant effect on the climate. In the aftermath of 9/11 the entire US fleet was grounded, and Travis finally had a chance to find out.

DR DAVID TRAVIS: It was certainly, you know, one of the tiny positives that may have come out of this, an opportunity to do research that hopefully will never happen again.

NARRATOR: Travis suspected the grounding might make a small but detectable change to the climate. But what he observed was both immediate and dramatic.

DR DAVID TRAVIS: We found that the change in temperature range during those three days was just over one degrees C. And you have to realise that from a layman's perspective that doesn't sound like much, but from a climate perspective that is huge.

NARRATOR: One degree in just three days no one had ever seen such a big climatic change happen so fast. This was a new kind of climate change. Scientists call it Global Dimming. Two years ago most of them had never even heard of it, yet now they believe it may mean all their predictions about the future of our climate could be wrong. The trail that would lead to the discovery of Global Dimming began 40 years ago, in Israel with the work of a young English immigrant called Gerry Stanhill. A trained biologist, Gerry got a job helping to design irrigation schemes. His task was to measure how strongly the sun shone over Israel.

DR GERALD STANHILL (Agricultural Research Organisation, Israel): It was important for this work to measure solar radiation, because that is the factor that basically determines how much water crops require.

NARRATOR: For a year Gerry collected data from a network of light meters; the results were much as expected, and were used to help design the national irrigation system. But twenty years later, in the 1980s, Gerry decided to repeat his measurements to check that they were still valid. What he found, stunned him.

DR GERALD STANHILL: Well I was amazed to find that there was a very serious reduction in sunlight, the amount of sunlight in Israel. In fact, if we compare those very early measurements in the 1950s with the current measurements, there was a staggering 22% drop in the sunlight, and that really amazed me.

NARRATOR: A 22% drop in solar energy was simply massive. If it was true surely Israelis should be freezing. There had to be something wrong. So when Gerry published his results they were ignored.

DR GERALD STANHILL: I must say the publications had almost no effect whatsoever on the scientific community.

NARRATOR: But in fact Gerry was not the only scientist who had noticed a fall in sunlight. In Germany a young graduate climatologist called Beate Liepert found that the same thing seemed to be happening over the Bavarian Alps too.

DR BEATE LIEPERT (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory): I was the same, I was as sceptical as any other climatologist. But then, um, I, I saw the same results er in Germany, so um I believed him.

NARRATOR: Germany, Israel, what about the rest of the world? Working independently of each other, Liepert and Stanhill began searching through publications, journals and meteorological records from around the world. And they both found the same extraordinary story. Between the 1950s and the early 1990s the level of solar energy reaching the earth's surface had dropped 9% in Antarctica, 10% in the USA, by almost 30% in Russia. And by 16% in parts of the British Isles. This was a truly global phenomenon, and Gerry gave it a suitable name - Global Dimming. But again, the response from other scientists was one of sheer disbelief.
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Old 2021-07-26, 13:31   #82
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Originally Posted by fivemack View Post
I don't think the fires put particles high enough up into the atmosphere - there's the tropopause between the troposphere and the stratosphere, which obstructs the movement of particles either direction, and even a really big wildfire only gets particles 5km or so up. You need big volcanoes to get sulphate aerosols up to the stratosphere and change Earth's albedo in the right direction.
Exactly. As Mt. Pinatubo did in 1991. The link below is an article that looks back on the eruption and discusses various aspects of the eruption. #8 concerns geoengineering aspects. The first comment at the bottom also has some points about that.

https://eos.org/articles/pinatubo-25...n-broke-ground
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Old 2021-08-03, 16:09   #83
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Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Soot particles absorb the sun light and add to the heat load. Whereas the various schemes being proposed are particles that reflect the sunlight so that it will not add to the heat load.
In simpler terms, the upper atmosphere would be warmer than normal. Is this correct?

This would be far above what meteorologists would call a "cap" or thermal inversion, something often mentioned in The Midwest during severe weather season.
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Old 2021-08-03, 20:51   #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by storm5510 View Post
In simpler terms, the upper atmosphere would be warmer than normal. Is this correct?

This would be far above what meteorologists would call a "cap" or thermal inversion, something often mentioned in The Midwest during severe weather season.
In even simpler terms: the situation is far more complex than appears at first sight. It is to be expected on theoretical grounds for a overall hotter atmosphere to have some regions which are cooler than before.

An similar effect, and one which affects me directly, is that in a warmer global climate most regions will experience more annual rainfall (because warm air can hold more water) but a very few and rather tiny areas will be expected to be drier than previously. One such area lies over the Canaries.
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Old 2021-08-03, 21:36   #85
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Originally Posted by xilman View Post
One such area lies over the Canaries.
I would argue that the most important thing to have changed since this risk has been introduced for consideration is the nomenclature.

Is it "Global Warming", or "Climate Change"?

Is it Anthropomorphic, or is it a natural harmonic with the Star we are closest to?

Or both, or neither? There are lies. There are damn lies. And then there are statistics.

Counter-arguments welcomed. I can often be dumber than bricks.

Ignorance can be corrected. Stupidity takes a bit more work.
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Old 2021-08-03, 22:36   #86
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Originally Posted by chalsall View Post
Is it "Global Warming", or "Climate Change"?
The term that is preferred at the moment is "climate change". The results of global warming are changing the climate in various ways at various places. As a whole the (skin of the) globe is warming, however some places will see lower local temps. Climate change provides a better term that encompasses all of the effects.
Quote:
Is it Anthropomorphic, or is it a natural harmonic with the Star we are closest to?
It is decidedly caused by the humans. There are multiple data sets that show decided changes in the trends that correspond with the usage of more fuels by humans. It goes all the way back to the start of larger scale glass manufacturing in Europe (a bit prior to the "Industrial Revolution"). The forests in the area suffered greatly.
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I can often be dumber than bricks. Counter-arguments welcomed.
Not going to argue with that.
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Old 2021-08-04, 02:03   #87
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Originally Posted by chalsall View Post
I would argue that the most important thing to have changed since this risk has been introduced for consideration is the nomenclature.

Is it "Global Warming", or "Climate Change"?

Is it Anthropomorphic, or is it a natural harmonic with the Star we are closest to?
<snip>
A bit of a nit-pick, but the word you want is "anthropogenic," describing something as being a result of human activity.

"Anthropomorphic" means relating to or characterized by anthropomophism, which is attributing human characteristics to animals, etc.

I have heard/read that Mr. Sun is gradually getting brighter, and that on a time scale of hundreds of millions of years, this will cause a runaway greenhouse effect that will make the climate of Earth a lot like that of Venus. At the same time, I have also heard/read (and posted recently to this thread) about "global dimming," a recent trend of decreasing sunlight reaching Earth's surface.

I'm not sure about "a natural harmonic" with Mr. Sun. Perhaps you're referring to a correlation of sunspot activity with warm or cold periods.

Another astronomical factor I suggest you look into is Milankovitch cycles. These are periodic variations in the shape of our orbit around Mr. Sun, and the tilt and wobble (precession) of the earth's axis of rotation. These variations affect climate. From what I have read, past cycles have tracked pretty well with ice ages and interglacials, but not the current one.

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2021-08-04 at 02:08 Reason: xingif stopy
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Old 2021-08-04, 15:50   #88
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Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
A bit of a nit-pick, but the word you want is "anthropogenic," describing something as being a result of human activity.
Thank you for that correction. And the additional edification. Sincerely, much appreciated!
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