20140313, 22:58  #1 
"Nathan"
Jul 2008
Maryland, USA
5·223 Posts 
Quick! Guess what the next LL residue will be!
If you're good at that kind of thing, Warren Buffett is offering a $1 billion prize for doing something only half as difficult: completing a perfect NCAA Tournament bracket. There are a total of 63 games, for each of which there is a 1/2 probability that you'll guess the winner. The odds of winning are hence , or 1 in 9.22 quintillion.
To put this in perspective, this task is equivalent to my telling you the first bit of an LL residue, and you correctly guessing the next 63 bits! The expected value of an entry into Buffett's Last fiddled with by NBtarheel_33 on 20140313 at 22:59 
20140313, 23:07  #2  
Aug 2006
13543_{8} Posts 
Quote:


20140314, 00:37  #3 
∂^{2}ω=0
Sep 2002
República de California
3^{4}×5×29 Posts 
Surely there are lots of data from previous online NCAA tournament contests which could be metastudied to
a) see what the resulting odds of a perfecto are, if >= 1 has occurred; b) [if !a] get a more precise estimate of the actual odds, by comparing the frequency of "near misses" with that predicted by a naive coinflipstyle model. If such a model were still reasonable but one could bias the odds of each "flip" to (say) 0.6 using relative rankings and other common heuristics, the odds of a perfecto jump by nearly 100000. 
20140314, 00:37  #4  
Nov 2004
2^{2}·3^{3}·5 Posts 
Quote:
Norm 

20140314, 03:48  #5 
Bemusing Prompter
"Danny"
Dec 2002
California
2·17·73 Posts 
This could be used to search for evidence of ESP, particularly precognition.

20140314, 04:30  #6  
Aug 2002
3·17·167 Posts 
Quote:


20140314, 06:22  #7 
Undefined
"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair
2^{2}×13×127 Posts 
Indeed. One would image that his advisers have suitably advised him of the odds. Plus he has probably insured against the prize being won and won't be out of pocket for any more than the excess if someone does win it. In short: reasonably cheap advertising for only the price of an insurance policy.

20140314, 08:45  #8 
Romulan Interpreter
"name field"
Jun 2011
Thailand
2×5×1,013 Posts 
Quick! Guess what the next LL residue will be!
Easy! The next interesting residue will be zero. All the other are non interesting.

20140314, 10:27  #9  
(loop (#_fork))
Feb 2006
Cambridge, England
1100100110110_{2} Posts 
Quote:
Warren Buffet runs one of the richest reinsurance companies in the world: the buck stops there. In the remarkably unlikely event that someone wins, it would be about 1.4% of Berkshire Hathaway's spare money paid out; no insurance company likes to make large payouts, but it wouldn't be a problem. 

20140314, 19:01  #10 
Romulan Interpreter
"name field"
Jun 2011
Thailand
2·5·1,013 Posts 
I have an easier guess for you to do, and more interesting too: you have to pick right only ~30 bits, which is infinite easier, and tell me the exponent of the first mersenne prime which takes the EFF's money... Who needs buffet's billions?

20140314, 19:14  #11  
"Bob Silverman"
Nov 2003
North of Boston
1D3A_{16} Posts 
Quote:
Indeed. One would expect a high probability for the 1st 4 seeds in each region to win their 1st game and a better than 50% probability to win the next as well. 

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