20021010, 07:20  #1 
Sep 2002
3^{2}·13 Posts 
Probability of finding a prime number
I was looking at my probability of finding a prime (currently 1/149456 with two 33M exponents) and I was wondering what exactly that means. Does it take into account previous distribution of mersene primes and those numbers already checked, or does it assume that the distribution is entirely random. If it assumes that they're randomly distributed, how could you calculate a probability?
Just wondering. 
20021010, 21:05  #2 
Aug 2002
3×7 Posts 
I believe the estimate is made as described here: Prime95 Help, Math  LucasLehmer details

20021011, 04:08  #3 
Sep 2002
1110101_{2} Posts 
I'm sorry. I've been following the boards at least since then, but I guess I never noticed it because I didn't care much about probabilities then. I'll try not to act like such a n00b. ops:

20021011, 06:53  #4 
"Mike"
Aug 2002
2·3·1,367 Posts 
I never knew about that either... I'm glad you brought it up... :)

20021011, 16:36  #5 
Oct 2002
Lost in the hills of Iowa
700_{8} Posts 
If you don't know the answer, it's NOT a dumb question.
9) (Unless you've been told the answer a few times, and are impolite about asking for it AGAIN, that is....) 
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