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Old 2014-04-09, 11:19   #1
sixblueboxes
 
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Default pie chart: LL attempts

This is a pie chart of the table here
http://www.mersenne.org/report_top_500_ll/
of LL attempts over the past year. Ordered by rank of GhzDays. Only the first 20 of ~2800 are in the legend.

So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime, it looks like there's still a 1/3 chance that the next discovery will go to one of the top three. Is my math right? I guess I'm also assuming that the output of each contributor is constant.
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Old 2014-04-09, 12:05   #2
LaurV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixblueboxes View Post
So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime
I thought they are all prime!
Regarding the chance of each exponent to generate a mersenne prime, well, that is much lower....
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Old 2014-04-09, 13:40   #3
axn
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixblueboxes View Post
So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime
Assuming that every exponent has the same chance of being prime (which isn't actually the case, but close enough), yes, there is a better than 1/3 chance that next prime will go to one of the top 3.

EDIT:- Of course, ANONYMOUS is actually an amalgamation of all users who haven't registered an id.
EDIT2:- Hmmm... There are actually multiple ANONYMOUS there. Does that mean #3 is a single user?

Last fiddled with by axn on 2014-04-09 at 13:42
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Old 2014-04-09, 13:45   #4
Mini-Geek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by axn View Post
Assuming that every exponent has the same chance of being prime (which isn't actually the case, but close enough), yes, there is a better than 1/3 chance that next prime will go to one of the top 3.

Didn't LaurV teach you anything? Every exponent does have the same chance of being prime: 1.
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Old 2014-04-09, 13:50   #5
axn
 
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Originally Posted by Mini-Geek View Post

Didn't LaurV teach you anything? Every exponent does have the same chance of being prime: 1.
Of course I read LaurV's comment before posting This is my attempt at balancing the pedantry
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Old 2014-04-11, 20:06   #6
Aramis Wyler
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixblueboxes View Post
So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime, it looks like there's still a 1/3 chance that the next discovery will go to one of the top three. Is my math right?
Your math isn't bad but the premise is flawed - Curtis Cooper already reserved the next 4 or 5 mersenne primes because he knows them in advance. :)
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Old 2014-04-18, 00:00   #7
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Originally Posted by Aramis Wyler View Post
Your math isn't bad but the premise is flawed - Curtis Cooper already reserved the next 4 or 5 mersenne primes because he knows them in advance. :)
He didn't get M2976221 in advance...
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Old 2014-04-18, 04:12   #8
LaurV
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@Gordon: That is false, he knew all of them but he didn't want us to see that, so he intentionally left few behind...
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Old 2014-04-18, 14:46   #9
R.D. Silverman
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixblueboxes View Post
This is a pie chart of the table here
http://www.mersenne.org/report_top_500_ll/
of LL attempts over the past year. Ordered by rank of GhzDays. Only the first 20 of ~2800 are in the legend.

So, assuming each exponent has a P=0.5 of being prime,
Assuming what?

Your last statement above is complete nonsense. May I suggest that you spend some time learning some number theory and statistics?

You also need to learn how to write mathematics and to think about
what you write before you write it. For GIMPS, every
exponent that is checked is prime.
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