20211007, 11:57  #23 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ
671_{8} Posts 
I guess that no later than in 1250 days, we will celebrate the passing of the next milestone here.
I mean M#49 or M(74207281). https://www.mersenneforum.org/showth...619#post589619 
20211007, 13:07  #24  
Feb 2017
Nowhere
2·2,687 Posts 
Quote:
Given the crude methods I'm using, I can't justify any greater precision. I'll keep a lazy eye on the clearance rate. If it changes significantly I'll revise the estimate. It will just be another simple linear extrapolation. Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 20211007 at 13:07 Reason: xingif topsy 

20211007, 13:52  #25 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
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3^{2}·7^{2} Posts 
Surprisingly similar to my initial forecast.
Linear? Last fiddled with by greenskull on 20211007 at 13:53 
20211007, 14:27  #26  
Feb 2017
Nowhere
2×2,687 Posts 
Quote:
No "magic crystal ball," nothing very sophisticated, just a simple calculation of when the goal will be reached if the present trend continues. The only real sophistication I claim is recognizing that the clearance rate could change. If it does, I'll revise the estimate accordingly. The following bit of dialogue from Dr. Strangelove comes to mind: Quote:
Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 20211007 at 14:27 Reason: fignix topsy 

20211007, 15:16  #27 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{2}·3·7·73 Posts 

20211007, 15:39  #28 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{2}×3×7×73 Posts 
Interestingly, there are over 25,600 DC assigned in 57M67M, while ~6,800 first test in 104M115M.
(Per work distribution map at https://www.mersenne.org/primenet/) I remember seeing the firsttest assignments outnumber the DC assignments there not so long ago. Presumably that shift is largely due to no longer issuing LL first tests, and some systems not being updated to do PRP/GEC/proof first tests. 
20211007, 16:31  #29  
Xebeche
Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ
3^{2}·7^{2} Posts 
Quote:
The 2nd one is already more thoughtful. Nice. Extrapolation and forecasting is not only a science but also a kind of art :) Last fiddled with by greenskull on 20211007 at 17:18 

20211007, 19:08  #30 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{2}×3×7×73 Posts 
Done (emailed), with references, and the URL of this thread and a rough estimate of 3+ years for the next. I'll leave the OEIS to someone else.
Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20211007 at 19:09 
20211007, 21:46  #31 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101ร103 Posts
2×3×1,709 Posts 

20211013, 16:11  #32  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
6132_{10} Posts 
Quote:
I'm on 74207209, which should complete in hours. Can't reserve it because there's an unnecessary TF assignment pending that is blocking DC assignments. For anyone wishing to be proactive and start similar work on Mp#50* undermining, https://www.mersenne.org/report_ll/?...dispdate=1&B1= or for Mp#51*, both LL and PRP ought be checked; https://www.mersenne.org/report_ll/?...dispdate=1&B1= and theoretically https://www.mersenne.org/report_prp/...dispdate=1&B1= (but those few all already have verified residues) And all those wavefront PRP/GEC/proof first test results quickly followed by CERTs help with verification up to Mp#52*, whatever that exponent is. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20211013 at 16:22 Reason: s/209207/207209/ (damn those teflon neurons impersonating short term memory!) 

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