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Old 2021-10-07, 11:57   #23
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I guess that no later than in 1250 days, we will celebrate the passing of the next milestone here.
I mean M#49 or M(74207281).
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showth...619#post589619
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Old 2021-10-07, 13:07   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
The values have been collected from numerous posts with date/time stamps in the Mp48* thread.
Here it is, for the convenient reference of any who wish to make projections, fits, guesses, estimates, proclamations etc.
Thank you. A total of 269225 exponents up to 74207281 yet to be cleared, and a daily clearance rate of 213.149, gives a simple-minded extrapolation estimate of 1263 days. That's around 3 years five months, or March 2025. I'm guessing the clearance rate of exponents below 74207281 will go up, so the milestone will be reached somewhat sooner than that. How much sooner? (shrugs shoulders) I don't know. I'll make a WAG of no more than 6 months. ETA between some time in September 2024 and some time in March 2025.

Given the crude methods I'm using, I can't justify any greater precision.

I'll keep a lazy eye on the clearance rate. If it changes significantly I'll revise the estimate. It will just be another simple linear extrapolation.

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2021-10-07 at 13:07 Reason: xingif topsy
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Old 2021-10-07, 13:52   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
...That's around 3 years five months, or March 2025...
Surprisingly similar to my initial forecast.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
It will just be another simple linear extrapolation.
Linear?

Last fiddled with by greenskull on 2021-10-07 at 13:53
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Old 2021-10-07, 14:27   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by greenskull View Post
<snip>
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
It will just be another simple linear extrapolation.
Linear?
Yes. Number of exponents below 74207281 remaining to be cleared, divided by daily clearance rate of exponents in that range, is my estimate of the number of days remaining until the milestone is reached. Linear extrapolation.

No "magic crystal ball," nothing very sophisticated, just a simple calculation of when the goal will be reached if the present trend continues.

The only real sophistication I claim is recognizing that the clearance rate could change. If it does, I'll revise the estimate accordingly. The following bit of dialogue from Dr. Strangelove comes to mind:
Quote:
Navigator: Sir, if we continue to lose fuel at the present rate, I estimate we only have thirty-eight minutes flying time which will not even take us as far as the primary.

Major T. J. "King" Kong: Dogonnit, Sweets, you told me that you'd get me to the primary!

Navigator: I'm sorry, sir. That estimate was based on the original loss rate factor, not at two zero five.

Last fiddled with by Dr Sardonicus on 2021-10-07 at 14:27 Reason: fignix topsy
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Old 2021-10-07, 15:16   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Well I have been tracking
Perhaps you'd be willing to track the various estimates for verifying Mp#49*, similarly to how you track Mp#52* guesses.
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Old 2021-10-07, 15:39   #28
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Interestingly, there are over 25,600 DC assigned in 57M-67M, while ~6,800 first test in 104M-115M.
(Per work distribution map at https://www.mersenne.org/primenet/)
I remember seeing the first-test assignments outnumber the DC assignments there not so long ago.
Presumably that shift is largely due to no longer issuing LL first tests, and some systems not being updated to do PRP/GEC/proof first tests.
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Old 2021-10-07, 16:31   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus View Post
Linear extrapolation.
No "magic crystal ball," nothing very sophisticated, just a simple calculation of when the goal will be reached if the present trend continues.
Your first try was the same as firejuggler's one -- 2029. It is too far.
The 2nd one is already more thoughtful. Nice.

Extrapolation and forecasting is not only a science but also a kind of art :)

Last fiddled with by greenskull on 2021-10-07 at 17:18
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Old 2021-10-07, 19:08   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulunderwood View Post
Someone should tell Prof. Chris Caldwell about this so he can update his site/database.
Done (emailed), with references, and the URL of this thread and a rough estimate of 3+ years for the next. I'll leave the OEIS to someone else.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-10-07 at 19:09
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Old 2021-10-07, 21:46   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Perhaps you'd be willing to track the various estimates for verifying Mp#49*, similarly to how you track Mp#52* guesses.
No. There is not so much fun there.
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Old 2021-10-13, 16:11   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
I think I might start DC'ing downward from M49. That will help the value jump quickly at the end.
Have fun with it. Up to ~77.5M, it's all LL first test; PRP first tests began around 77.5M. For Mp#49*, that would involve near the end of the list produced by https://www.mersenne.org/report_ll/?...dispdate=1&B1=
I'm on 74207209, which should complete in hours. Can't reserve it because there's an unnecessary TF assignment pending that is blocking DC assignments.

For anyone wishing to be proactive and start similar work on Mp#50* undermining,
https://www.mersenne.org/report_ll/?...dispdate=1&B1=

or for Mp#51*, both LL and PRP ought be checked;
https://www.mersenne.org/report_ll/?...dispdate=1&B1=
and theoretically
https://www.mersenne.org/report_prp/...dispdate=1&B1=
(but those few all already have verified residues)

And all those wavefront PRP/GEC/proof first test results quickly followed by CERTs help with verification up to Mp#52*, whatever that exponent is.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-10-13 at 16:22 Reason: s/209207/207209/ (damn those teflon neurons impersonating short term memory!)
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Old 2021-10-13, 16:14   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
Hm, "No results matching search parameters".
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