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 2016-01-02, 04:28 #133 davar55     May 2004 New York City 10000100010112 Posts I see we recently passed single checks up to 60,000,000. Could you find all the predictions for an MP exponent that falls in the range 60M to 80M? I have no special knowledge of it, but I think we'll find just one more exponent below 100M.
2016-01-02, 04:49   #134
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502

"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

37·271 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by davar55 Could you find all the predictions for an MP exponent that falls in the range 60M to 80M?
Code:
Flatlander	61,500,000
WOKIDNAPS	63,797,911
fatphil		64,000,000
WOKIDNAPS	64,499,971
Nbtarheel_33	64,500,000
firejuggler	64,500,000
Raman		64,601,657
petrw1		65,432,117
ixfd64		66,370,000
Mindnar		67,108,864
ATH		67,464,577
axn		68,407,583
Uncwilly	70,000,409
Spherical Cow	70,022,021
dabaichi	70,120,000
Phil MjX	70,300,000
petrw1		71,021,303
bcp19		73,800,000
MoooMoo		75,860,000
philmoore	76,706,041
davar55		77,000,000
davar55		77,777,027
Oddball		78,000,000
Uncwilly	79,399,909
Uncwilly	79,400,141
prgamma10	79,865,251
The coloured ones are legacy guesses from the time before M48 was found.

 2016-01-10, 01:20 #135 Uncwilly 6809 > 6502     """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 37·271 Posts Per standard protocol, no further guesses allowed, pending the verification runs on the newly uncovered prime report. We had some guesses predicting the second half of 2015.
 2016-01-10, 01:23 #136 Dubslow Basketry That Evening!     "Bunslow the Bold" Jun 2011 40
 2016-01-12, 19:46 #137 Phil MjX     Sep 2004 B916 Posts I am still in the race But certainly not the winner...
 2016-01-19, 18:08 #138 Uncwilly 6809 > 6502     """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 272B16 Posts Here is how it goes: If everything had gone as planned... MattcAnderson with a guess of 9/9/2015 was closest to the date that the machine found the number (September 17, 2015) and what should have been the date. As it happened.... prgamma10's guess of 2/1/2016 was closest to the date that Aaron found the number in the data (January 7, 2016). bcp19's guess of 73,800,000 was the closest and the date of 3/15/2016 for that guess was not to bad, especially considering that it was made on 2/13/2013 All hail the victors! Onward and upward
2016-01-20, 02:44   #139
retina
Undefined

"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair

11000100100112 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly bcp19's guess of 73,800,000 was the closest and the date of 3/15/2016 for that guess was not to bad, especially considering that it was made on 2/13/2013
And the prize for winning is ...

2016-01-27, 04:13   #140
philmoore

"Phil"
Sep 2002
Tracktown, U.S.A.

3·373 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly Here is how it goes: If everything had gone as planned... MattcAnderson with a guess of 9/9/2015 was closest to the date that the machine found the number (September 17, 2015) and what should have been the date. As it happened.... prgamma10's guess of 2/1/2016 was closest to the date that Aaron found the number in the data (January 7, 2016). bcp19's guess of 73,800,000 was the closest and the date of 3/15/2016 for that guess was not to bad, especially considering that it was made on 2/13/2013 All hail the victors! Onward and upward
Brian-E actually guessed 9/15/2015, just two days before the actual machine discovery, so I would say both his and MattcAnderson's guesses were remarkably close to what should have been the day had the notification worked as intended.

2016-01-27, 05:31   #141
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502

"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

37×271 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by philmoore Brian-E actually guessed 9/15/2015, just two days before the actual machine discovery, so I would say both his and MattcAnderson's guesses were remarkably close to what should have been the day had the notification worked as intended.
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Brian-E In the range 37.1M-37.2M, remarkably close to what we currently call M45, and it will be found as a triple check in September 2015 after two non-matching tests which incorrectly return composite, just one of which has currently already been done.
I took "in September 2015" to mean "a day September 2015", so I picked the first day of September, could have used the last day of September. Inexactness has a price.

2016-01-27, 15:36   #142
Brian-E

"Brian"
Jul 2007
The Netherlands

2×3×5×109 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly I took "in September 2015" to mean "a day September 2015", so I picked the first day of September, could have used the last day of September. Inexactness has a price.
I shouldn't have precisely halved the exponent either. Inexactness has a price indeed.

 2016-01-29, 03:04 #143 MattcAnderson     "Matthew Anderson" Dec 2010 Oregon, USA 911 Posts Hi Math People Yeah that M74207281 is the 49th known Mersenne prime. Regards Matt

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