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Old 2016-01-21, 16:05   #23
Spherical Cow
 
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Guesstimate # 2:

109,721,473, and remarkably, the date is the same as my first guess, January 11, 2017. What a coincidence!

Norm
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Old 2016-01-21, 16:32   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spherical Cow View Post
Guesstimate # 2:

109,721,473, and remarkably, the date is the same as my first guess, January 11, 2017. What a coincidence!

Norm
Check out... this one has not been trial-factored betweeen 71 and 73 bits...
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Old 2016-01-22, 00:53   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Spherical Cow View Post
Guesstimate # 2:

109,721,473, and remarkably, the date is the same as my first guess, January 11, 2017. What a coincidence!

Norm
Is this a replacement or additional?
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Old 2016-01-22, 14:31   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
Is this a replacement or additional?
A replacement if that's allowed by a generous reading of the rules. My earlier guess of 97219783 turns out to have been factored, and I failed to notice. If stupid mistakes cannot be replaced (as compared to smart mistakes), then this is an additional guess.

Norm
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Old 2016-01-23, 10:22   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dubslow View Post
Though not within the rules of this thread, I'd make two individual $10 wagers that the next prime will be neither in this decade nor have p < 100M (barring a first time miss found by double check).
I'll take those bets. :)

I'll say somewhere in the 92 million range, in the year 2019.

Edit: Now I've read the rules, I see we have to be more specific. How about 92018681 on 10th May 2019.

Last fiddled with by lavalamp on 2016-01-23 at 10:26
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Old 2016-01-27, 04:05   #28
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M98335147 on 4 December, 2021.
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Old 2016-01-29, 03:12   #29
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Hi Math People
My prediction for the 50th known Mersenne prime is
M91234603 found July 1 2018.

Regards
Matt
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Old 2016-02-01, 08:37   #30
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I hate to do this, but I will anyway...

Instead of inching along...

Who wants to predict M100 ?

The value 100 is not an arbitrary choice, if my
Pythagorean tendencies are valid. So before
anyone overgeneralizes my suggestion,
can we get some discussion of what that
exponent could be? Would it be like (M50)^2?

I know we love M95 and will love its successors,
but wouldn't it be better to go after more than one
exponent in the LLT itself at the same time?
Instead of eliminating one at a time, why not two,
or more (pick any number)? I'm thinking the
successor to P95 (FTSOA call it P2020) could test
several exponents in parallel, perhaps (if someone
comes up with the math) related primes (like twins
or small constellations).

The MPs may get too big too soon, but there must
be some science in the exponents too, if either
Wagstaff or my conjecture are correct.
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Old 2016-02-04, 20:01   #31
ixfd64
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I think M74,207,281 is the 50th Mersenne prime. However, there is an undiscovered one at around M64,700,000, and it will be found by George Woltman himself during a double-check in August 2016.
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Old 2016-02-05, 01:41   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ixfd64 View Post
I think M74,207,281 is the 50th Mersenne prime. However, there is an undiscovered one at around M64,700,000, and it will be found by George Woltman himself during a double-check in August 2016.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Uncwilly View Post
THE RULES OF THE GAME:
  1. Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.)
Care to be more specific? Else....

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2016-02-05 at 01:41
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Old 2016-02-12, 10:06   #33
davar55
 
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Are we allowed to quote ourselves?

Quote:
Originally Posted by davar55 View Post
I hate to do this, but I will anyway...
Instead of inching along...
Who wants to predict M100 ?
The value 100 is not an arbitrary choice, if my
Pythagorean tendencies are valid. So before
anyone overgeneralizes my suggestion,
can we get some discussion of what that
exponent could be? Would it be like (M50)^2?
I know we love M95 and will love its successors,
but wouldn't it be better to go after more than one
exponent in the LLT itself at the same time?
Instead of eliminating one at a time, why not two,
or more (pick any number)? I'm thinking the
successor to P95 (FTSOA call it P2020) could test
several exponents in parallel, perhaps (if someone
comes up with the math) related primes (like twins
or small constellations).
The MPs may get too big too soon, but there must
be some science in the exponents too, if either
Wagstaff or my conjecture are correct.
If not, please delete this post.

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