20160121, 16:05  #23 
Nov 2004
2^{2}×3^{3}×5 Posts 
Guesstimate # 2:
109,721,473, and remarkably, the date is the same as my first guess, January 11, 2017. What a coincidence! Norm 
20160121, 16:32  #24 
Banned
"Luigi"
Aug 2002
Team Italia
2·3·5·7·23 Posts 

20160122, 00:53  #25 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
272B_{16} Posts 

20160122, 14:31  #26 
Nov 2004
1034_{8} Posts 
A replacement if that's allowed by a generous reading of the rules. My earlier guess of 97219783 turns out to have been factored, and I failed to notice. If stupid mistakes cannot be replaced (as compared to smart mistakes), then this is an additional guess.
Norm 
20160123, 10:22  #27  
Oct 2007
Manchester, UK
1362_{10} Posts 
Quote:
I'll say somewhere in the 92 million range, in the year 2019. Edit: Now I've read the rules, I see we have to be more specific. How about 92018681 on 10th May 2019. Last fiddled with by lavalamp on 20160123 at 10:26 

20160127, 04:05  #28 
"Phil"
Sep 2002
Tracktown, U.S.A.
3×373 Posts 
M98335147 on 4 December, 2021.

20160129, 03:12  #29 
"Matthew Anderson"
Dec 2010
Oregon, USA
911 Posts 
Hi Math People
My prediction for the 50th known Mersenne prime is M91234603 found July 1 2018. Regards Matt 
20160201, 08:37  #30 
May 2004
New York City
5×7×11^{2} Posts 
I hate to do this, but I will anyway...
Instead of inching along... Who wants to predict M100 ? The value 100 is not an arbitrary choice, if my Pythagorean tendencies are valid. So before anyone overgeneralizes my suggestion, can we get some discussion of what that exponent could be? Would it be like (M50)^2? I know we love M95 and will love its successors, but wouldn't it be better to go after more than one exponent in the LLT itself at the same time? Instead of eliminating one at a time, why not two, or more (pick any number)? I'm thinking the successor to P95 (FTSOA call it P2020) could test several exponents in parallel, perhaps (if someone comes up with the math) related primes (like twins or small constellations). The MPs may get too big too soon, but there must be some science in the exponents too, if either Wagstaff or my conjecture are correct. 
20160204, 20:01  #31 
Bemusing Prompter
"Danny"
Dec 2002
California
2×17×71 Posts 
I think M74,207,281 is the 50th Mersenne prime. However, there is an undiscovered one at around M64,700,000, and it will be found by George Woltman himself during a doublecheck in August 2016.

20160205, 01:41  #32  
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
37·271 Posts 
Quote:
Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 20160205 at 01:41 

20160212, 10:06  #33  
May 2004
New York City
5·7·11^{2} Posts 
Are we allowed to quote ourselves?
Quote:


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