mersenneforum.org Probability of finding a prime number
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 2002-10-10, 07:20 #1 Deamiter     Sep 2002 32·13 Posts Probability of finding a prime number I was looking at my probability of finding a prime (currently 1/149456 with two 33M exponents) and I was wondering what exactly that means. Does it take into account previous distribution of mersene primes and those numbers already checked, or does it assume that the distribution is entirely random. If it assumes that they're randomly distributed, how could you calculate a probability? Just wondering.
 2002-10-10, 21:05 #2 svempasnake   Aug 2002 258 Posts I believe the estimate is made as described here: Prime95- Help, Math - Lucas-Lehmer details
 2002-10-11, 04:08 #3 Deamiter     Sep 2002 32·13 Posts I'm sorry. I've been following the boards at least since then, but I guess I never noticed it because I didn't care much about probabilities then. I'll try not to act like such a n00b. ops:
 2002-10-11, 06:53 #4 Xyzzy     "Mike" Aug 2002 11111011000102 Posts I never knew about that either... I'm glad you brought it up... :)
 2002-10-11, 16:36 #5 QuintLeo     Oct 2002 Lost in the hills of Iowa 26·7 Posts If you don't know the answer, it's NOT a dumb question. 9-) (Unless you've been told the answer a few times, and are impolite about asking for it AGAIN, that is....)

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