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Old 2018-12-12, 20:07   #1
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502
 
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Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

32·11·109 Posts
Talking Predict M52

With M51 found and verified and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M52 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.)

THE RULES OF THE GAME:
  1. Post your guess here, no PM'ing.
  2. Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
  3. You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you do guess a number or date that has already been submitted, this will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
  4. If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor. Guessing a number with a known factor will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
  5. If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it.
  6. You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed.
  7. All guesses received within the 48 hours before M52 is reported (by or to anyone by any method) are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating). This disqualification period will extend through to the time that a person reports to the forum that a candidate prime has been noticed. When that happens all guessing is closed.
  8. The discoverer of M52 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 10 hours after they were assigned and/or started the expo (whichever is first) that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified.
  9. If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored.
  10. For the sake of this game, we will use the date (in UTC) that the prime is reported to and recorded by the PrimeNet server as the date (PRP or LL result). This may differ from the officially reported discovery date. If M52 is not first reported to PrimeNet, the judgement of the date to be used will be left up to George or his designee.
  11. Previous discoverers (not the noticers) of M Primes are granted an extra guess (4 vs. the standard 3). This means the person who used the machine that first reported the prime.

All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated.
Absurd guesses may be ignore it any statistical reports or graphs.
Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread.
Make your guess clear in your post.

GAME ON!

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2019-08-29 at 14:00 Reason: errant 'e' removed.
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Old 2018-12-12, 20:07   #2
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502
 
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Aug 2003
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Talking Predict M52

List up to date as of 2300 Sept 28, 2022 UTC

This is the list of currently active guesses (those stricken through were previous guesses that have been replaced under the rules). A number of them we have tested all of the exponents to that number, some we have passed the predicted date. All except those guessed guessed by those assigned the exponents guessed have been tested and shown not to be a prime.

Code:
Who	When guessed	Exponent	When found
MattcAnderson	9/11/2019	84000013	4/1/2020
Uncwilly	12/28/2018	84000017	2/28/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	85020577	1/1/2020
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	85615531	10/1/2019
firejuggler	1/2/2019	87522767	1/3/2021
Petrw1  	12/12/2018	87654361	12/25/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	87668491	3/14/2019
moebius  	12/14/2018	87885437	
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	87946949	
kriesel  	12/21/2018	88318673	6/14/2019
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	89065523	3/14/2020
Uncwilly	12/29/2018	89999999	4/15/2020
MattcAnderson	2/25/2021	90000049	12/25/2022
firejuggler	1/2/2019	90098611	2/1/2022
Viliam Furik	12/3/2019	91305491	1/18/2020
patrik  	12/18/2018	91502209	12/4/2020
dcheuk  	3/11/2019	91761547	3/14/2021
Neutron3529	12/13/2018	92074531	
christian_	12/27/2018	93456799	4/7/2019
axn     	12/21/2018	94029857	3/17/2021
sweety439	8/30/2019	94539113*	5/9/2021	*factored
Uncwilly	12/30/2018	95000167	9/24/2021
EWMayer  	12/12/2018	96000193	5/1/2021
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	96052357*	5/21/2021	*factored
Dylan14  	12/14/2018	97200647	2/2/2021
Spherical Cow	12/27/2018	97211981	10/30/2019
dcheuk  	3/10/2020	98350193	6/1/2020
Uncwilly	2/11/2020	99998441	7/31/2020	
Uncwilly	7/24/2020	100002751	10/6/2020
lukerichards			101834393*	8/1/2020	*factored
Primeinator	2/25/2021	102218101	3/1/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	102685711	2/4/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	102685769	2/4/2021
ZFR		11/24/2020	103037743	2/4/2021
Primeinator	2/25/2021	103103437	3/31/2022
Raydex		2/15/2021	103237441	4/26/2021
tuckerkao	11/24/2020	103305173	
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	103347613
Primeinator	2/25/2021	104115637	8/31/2024
Uncwilly	9/29/2021	106456279	10/31/2021
christian_	12/27/2018	106456799	1/22/2020
axn    	 	12/21/2018	107054317	8/31/2023
Prime95 	12/16/2018	107448181	6/1/2022
Spherical Cow	2/11/2020	107448791*	2/9/2021	*factored
Zhangrc		8/4/2021	108765463	11/1/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287103	12/14/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287119	12/14/2021
ZFR		5/7/2021	109287131	12/14/2021	<==FTC complete above this
Kvasir		12/9/2021	110235199	12/2/2022
billymac00	9/9/2022	110687989	5/11/2023
Batalov   	12/12/2018	110691517	6/19/2022
ixfd64   	12/27/2018	110691683	1/3/2025
dannyridel	7/26/2020	111906173	1/2/2021
Uncwilly	9/29/2021	111999799	5/27/2022
firejuggler	5/8/2021	114034099	12/24/2022
MPrimeFinder	9/25/2022	114464843	Bad date	* posted after test started
Neil		9/28/2022	114670243	6/20/2023	* posted after test started
congsz		8/24/2022	115230449	5/1/2023
masser  	8/3/2019	115856161	7/4/2023
masser  	12/12/2018	117003179	11/24/2022
firejuggler	5/8/2021	118034167	5/24/2023
masser  	12/12/2018	118788157	8/8/2020
ixfd64  	12/27/2018	121596589	10/8/2027
kriesel  	12/21/2018	121882753	5/21/2025
axn	        12/21/2018	121882903	7/12/2026
Petrw1  	10/13/2020	123456841	4/3/2021
Raydex		12/5/2020	125000089	5/2/2021
Jan S		12/10/2021	126551093	10/15/2023
sweety439	8/4/2021	127027489	4/21/2023
moebius		12/19/2020	131508427	1/1/2026
congsz		8/24/2022	141421417*	1/1/2027	*factored
christian_	12/27/2018	146456881	2/3/2022
masser  	10/13/2020	149929849	9/2/2024
Ensigm  	10/13/2020	150714349	12/11/2024
congsz		8/24/2022	173205119*	12/1/2030	*factored
Dobri		8/20/2021	194004047	8/15/2022
Dobri		8/20/2021	194004049	8/15/2022
tuckerkao	12/8/2021	196828523	
Brian-E  	12/21/2018	258150181	5/15/2027
GP2     	1/4/2019	282362693	3/3/2025
tuckerkao	10/14/2020	310347613
Dobri		8/2/2021	332192957	8/23/2024
dcheuk  	9/1/2019	333898333	11/1/2019
kriesel  	12/21/2018	402143633*	3/12/2052	*factored
ONeil		12/5/2020	852348659	12/31/2024
tServo  	12/14/2018			12/31/2019
moebius  	12/14/2018			1/13/2020
greenskull	10/12/2021			2/10/2022

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2022-09-28 at 21:18 Reason: Up dated
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Old 2018-12-12, 20:19   #3
petrw1
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
 
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"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada

132×31 Posts
Default

87,654,361

December 25, 2019
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Old 2018-12-12, 21:43   #4
ewmayer
2ω=0
 
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Sep 2002
República de California

101101111010102 Posts
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96000193, May 1st 2021.
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Old 2018-12-12, 22:15   #5
Batalov
 
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"Serge"
Mar 2008
Phi(4,2^7658614+1)/2

270716 Posts
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110691517
6-19-2022
(optimistic, I know)
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Old 2018-12-12, 22:37   #6
masser
 
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Jul 2003
Behind BB

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Recycling an M50 prediction...

Quote:
118,788,157

August 8th, 2020.
... and an M51 prediction:

Quote:
Originally Posted by masser View Post
117003179

November 24, 2022

Last fiddled with by masser on 2018-12-12 at 22:38
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Old 2018-12-14, 13:43   #7
Dylan14
 
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"Dylan"
Mar 2017

2·33·11 Posts
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Exponent: 97,200,647

Date: February 2, 2021
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Old 2018-12-14, 18:10   #8
tServo
 
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"Marv"
May 2009
near the Tannhäuser Gate

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December 31, 2019

I am betting that the as the new PRP checking is adopted by more folks, the rate of exponents being tested for compositness will greatly accelerate.
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Old 2018-12-14, 22:25   #9
moebius
 
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Jul 2009
Germany

10100000112 Posts
Lightbulb

87885437
March 30 th 2019

Last fiddled with by moebius on 2018-12-14 at 22:39
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Old 2018-12-14, 22:32   #10
Uncwilly
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Quote:
Originally Posted by moebius View Post
(2^(M51+2000238))-1
That is not a valid guess. Your guess must be a specific prime number. No expressions or ranges. If you decide after M51 is announced to post the equivalent value, you may. But, this counts against your 3 potential guesses. The 60 rule is thus invoked.
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Old 2018-12-14, 22:43   #11
moebius
 
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Yes I did an mistake and changed it, but your post was faster than my brain. Excuse me.
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