Manic of a panic is geopolitical - Page 110

kladner · 2020-12-28, 23:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by storm5510

I suppose she should consider herself fortunate not to be stood up against a wall and shot. The backlash from the world-at-large would have been rather remarkable.

Yes, you are correct. My response was formulaic.

Uncwilly · 2020-12-29, 22:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

I have updated the chart for the new season. I added in the last season into the average and Std Dev for the new season. It looks like this peak will pass the height of the summer/post summer peak.

Well things are not looking good. Remember these data take several weeks to complete and the value on the y-axis is deaths above the recent mean.
Sept 25th graph: https://www.mersenneforum.org/attach...2&d=1601072333
November graph: https://www.mersenneforum.org/attach...4&d=1605907072

Dr Sardonicus · 2020-12-30, 00:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

Well things are not looking good. Remember these data take several weeks to complete and the value on the y-axis is deaths above the recent mean.
Sept 25th graph: https://www.mersenneforum.org/attach...2&d=1601072333
November graph: https://www.mersenneforum.org/attach...4&d=1605907072

I'm a little confused by the graphs. They appear to go from week 40 of 2019 to week 39 of 2020. But that would put the arrow indicating "Election" at week 43 of 2019 (or week 45 in the September graph).

It took me a bit of "blinker" comparison to realize that the minimum near week 38 is over 8000 in the new graph, compared to about 6500 in November's graph. The downward trend predicted at the end of November's graph is now becoming an uptrend.

And on the whole it was a very good year
For the undertaker.

-- Carole King, Smackwater Jack

Uncwilly · 2020-12-30, 01:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

I'm a little confused by the graphs. They appear to go from week 40 of 2019 to week 39 of 2020. But that would put the arrow indicating "Election" at week 43 of 2019 (or week 45 in the September graph).

Those are week of the year. The lines are different colors for the different seasons. I kept the 40-39 convention from the source of the data. The green line is the actual data from the 2019-2020 flu and pneumonia tracking season. The red line is a prediction based upon the revisions to the data over time. The purple line is for the 2020-2021 season. The orange line is the prediction line for that. (It takes the current data for a week adds 1/2 the difference between the current data and last week's version [for the same week number] and adds 1/4 of the difference from the current data compared to the data published 2 weeks before. As the totals stabilize, the prediction will match the data.) The light blue line is the updated 2 sigma, taking into consideration the week 40-52, 2019 data.

The election happened during the week indicated. It is not a likely cause of any trend. Other issues such as spread at rallies could be. The data from this source has been very laggy, but is raw deaths by week. I have stuck with this data source as it keeps people from complaining that Dr's are just writing COVID on any death certificate. That 25,000 deaths above normal back in the spring is over 10 std dev above the average. Something was killing huge numbers of Americans. If not COVID, what was it?

Dr Sardonicus · 2020-12-30, 02:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

The election happened during the week indicated.

But not the year indicated by the data. The data say that is week 43 of 2019. The election took place in 2020.

Reading the data lines as going from late 2019 to late 2020, the graphic makes sense. The change at the right hand side I mentioned before looks ominous.

The lag in finalizing data was used by those denying the reality of COVID-19 earlier this year. There was a posting to social media purporting to show average weekly deaths for the first 16 weeks of the year over the previous umpteen years, versus the data for the first 16 weeks of 2020. There was little difference in the figures. The thing was, they were using preliminary data for week 16 of 2020. The final data showed a big jump.

There are folks now claiming that only 3% of the COVID deaths being reported by the CDC are real. These folks obviously don't know, and don't care, that the CDC relies on official records - death certificates - compiled by every county in the country.

Uncwilly · 2020-12-30, 02:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

But not the year indicated by the data. The data say that is week 43 of 2019. The election took place in 2020.

Reading the data lines as going from late 2019 to late 2020, the graphic makes sense. The change at the right hand side I mentioned before looks ominous.

The graph is cyclical. The x-axis is week of the year, any year. That is why there is a second line plotted for the 2020-2021 season. That season began at week 40. If I put a marker for New Years, Christmas, or July 4, they should all fall on the same week every year (+/-). 2 different seasons are being plotted on the same x-axis.

BTW, for the first few weeks of 2020, the 2019-2020 data were lower. The low point was below the mean for a while.

Dr Sardonicus · 2020-12-30, 13:08

Louisiana Congressman-elect Luke Letlow dead from COVID-19

Quote:

BATON ROUGE, La. (AP) — Luke Letlow, Louisiana's incoming Republican member of the U.S. House, died Tuesday night from complications related to COVID-19 only days before he would have been sworn into office. He was 41.

Dr Sardonicus · 2020-12-30, 14:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

The graph is cyclical.

Actually, it's not. That's what was confusing me. It doesn't bother me now though, since (I think) I see what's going on: The baseline signifies two different things for the two sets of data. Even though that's right in the legend, my mind rebels at such a usage.

For the green, dark blue, and red lines, the baseline (x-axis) is the mean for 2013-2019. But for the purple, orange, and light blue lines, the baseline (x-axis) is the mean for 2013-2020, which is, presumably, different from the mean for 2013-2019.

That would explain why the left-hand sides of the purple and orange lines are offset from the right side of the green and red lines.

I'm guessing the offset indicates that the deaths in 2020 for weeks 40 and later were higher than the 2013-2019 average.

storm5510 · 2020-12-30, 15:26

A couple of different items:

Some of you know my sister works at the local hospital with COVID patients. I received a message from her last night saying she had her first vaccine shot on December 22. The next is January 11. No side effects so far. She indicated this usually comes after the second dose. So, time will tell.

NBC News made a statement that they believe it will take a decade to get enough people vaccinated to control the spread. This seemed really odd to me until I considered a global effort. Many people in third-world countries, like in Africa and Asia, may never be vaccinated.

tServo · 2020-12-30, 16:58

Quote:

Originally Posted by storm5510

A couple of different items:

Some of you know my sister works at the local hospital with COVID patients. I received a message from her last night saying she had her first vaccine shot on December 22. The next is January 11. No side effects so far. She indicated this usually comes after the second dose. So, time will tell.

NBC News made a statement that they believe it will take a decade to get enough people vaccinated to control the spread. This seemed really odd to me until I considered a global effort. Many people in third-world countries, like in Africa and Asia, may never be vaccinated.

I have heard a statement similar to the NBC news one quoted above from several different news organizations. Usually, they have just said "years to get enough people vaccinated BASED ON THE CURRENT SLOW RATE IN THE U.S."
We were supposed to have had 20 million vaccinations by now but only have 10% of that. In the coming weeks the rate may slow even further since they will be starting to give the second shot instead of doing first-timers.

storm5510 · 2020-12-30, 19:51

I heard from my sister again a short time ago. She said the hospital usually has, at least, 12 COVID patients at any given time. She also stated there is one death most days. The vast majority of these are elderly and have pre-existing conditions which puts them at a much higher risk. She specifically mentioned COPD. I take it the outlook for them is quite dim.

2020-12-30, 15:26	#1208
storm5510 Random Account "Norman D. Powell" Aug 2009 Indiana, USA. 2×3×313 Posts	A couple of different items: Some of you know my sister works at the local hospital with COVID patients. I received a message from her last night saying she had her first vaccine shot on December 22. The next is January 11. No side effects so far. She indicated this usually comes after the second dose. So, time will tell. NBC News made a statement that they believe it will take a decade to get enough people vaccinated to control the spread. This seemed really odd to me until I considered a global effort. Many people in third-world countries, like in Africa and Asia, may never be vaccinated.

2020-12-30, 19:51	#1210
storm5510 Random Account "Norman D. Powell" Aug 2009 Indiana, USA. 2·3·313 Posts	I heard from my sister again a short time ago. She said the hospital usually has, at least, 12 COVID patients at any given time. She also stated there is one death most days. The vast majority of these are elderly and have pre-existing conditions which puts them at a much higher risk. She specifically mentioned COPD. I take it the outlook for them is quite dim.