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2021-10-13, 09:23   #320
greenskull
Xebeche

Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ

5×89 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly 2. Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
Q: Have I indicated the prime number AND / OR date?
A: Yes, I indicated the date in the very first comment and then 3 or 4 more times in the explanations.

Q: Have I indicated an interval?
A: Yes, but I indicated it as an addition that can be ignored according to the rules. The interval is indicated NOT INSTEAD of the date, but in addition to it.

Q: Did I not specify a number?
A: I have not specified a number. This is explained in the rules - AND / OR. It is allowed to indicate the date without a number. Moreover, I have already seen this in this thread.

I think we have exhausted this issue. Or not yet? :)

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dobri Irrespective of the and/or option, Catch 22 Rule #2 ends in "Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6." This imposes a 60-day wait for guessing only a specific date, right?
I have nothing against this.

Last fiddled with by greenskull on 2021-10-13 at 09:27

2021-10-13, 09:24   #321
kruoli

"Oliver"
Sep 2017
Porta Westfalica, DE

3D316 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Dobri Irrespective of the and/or option, Catch 22 Rule #2 ends in "Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6." This imposes a 60-day wait for guessing only a specific date, right?
That rule is for "experts" which predict composite exponents like "I think M123456788 will be the next Mersenne prime!". So the emphasis goes on prime in that sentence. Maybe it should be phrased "Guessing a Mersenne number with composite exponent will...".

Last fiddled with by kruoli on 2021-10-13 at 09:26 Reason: Added quotation.

2021-10-13, 11:02   #322
tuckerkao

"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020

2×5×73 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by greenskull Q: Did I not specify a number? A: I have not specified a number. This is explained in the rules - AND / OR. It is allowed to indicate the date without a number. Moreover, I have already seen this in this thread. I think we have exhausted this issue. Or not yet? :)
The format of the Mersenne number guessing is more like the example below, best if there's a link provided directly towards the specific exponent that has passed the recommended P-1 and trial factoring tests with no known factors.

M168779323 on Feb 14, 2022

Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 2021-10-13 at 11:02

2021-12-08, 01:56   #323
tuckerkao

"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020

13328 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly Why don't we just take 2021-10-08 as the start of your 60 day wait
It has been 61 days since that, so I'm eligible to request the P-1 of M196828523 from Kriesel and expect the PRP to be finished by 12/27/2021 if NF-PM1.

As UncWilly previously demanded, I must guess an exponent from a new range, thus M196M qualifies.

Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 2021-12-08 at 02:01

2021-12-08, 02:05   #324
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502

"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101ร103 Posts

291B16 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tuckerkao I'm eligible to request the P-1 of M196828523 from Kriesel and expect the PRP to be finished by 12/27/2021 if NF-PM1.
You can guess that number, but Kriesel is at liberty to ignore your guess and not do any work on it. If you are using guesses to get someone to do work on a number for you, there may be consequences.

2021-12-08, 02:46   #325
tuckerkao

"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020

13328 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly We have a loooong way to go to say it will be the longest gap. 2013-01-25 - 2009-04-12 = 1384 days 1996-09-03 - 1994-01-04 = 973 <- sort of counts. 2015-09-17 - 2013-01-25 = 965 2001-11-14 - 1999-06-01 = 897 days As of now we are 882 days
As of 12/08/2021, the gap has been significantly narrowed. 1097 days since a new Mersenne Prime was last discovered. Kriesel is at liberty to extend the drought to reach the exceptional level.

Surprisingly no one else had placed 1 single guess before me since greenskull left his final comment. You made it sound like it was inappropriate to keep this thread going.

Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 2021-12-08 at 02:57

2021-12-08, 04:21   #326
tuckerkao

"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020

2×5×73 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Uncwilly You can guess that number, but Kriesel is at liberty to ignore your guess and not do any work on it. If you are using guesses to get someone to do work on a number for you, there may be consequences.
I had a few private messages with Kriesel several months ago. He said that he couldn't exclusively test my guesses(running PRPs) without the limits, so he wanted me to follow this thread with the rule of 3 active guesses only, so fair to other users too.

As I recall that same day(didn't remember exactly when), Kriesel told me how I could adjust my mfaktc config, so the trial factoring process would auto-stop as soon as a factor was found.

Last fiddled with by tuckerkao on 2021-12-08 at 04:27

 2021-12-08, 12:20 #327 ZFR     Feb 2008 Meath, Ireland 2678 Posts Is there a link to current list of predictions, so I don't pick a number already taken?
2021-12-08, 12:23   #328
tuckerkao

"Tucker Kao"
Jan 2020

2×5×73 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by ZFR Is there a link to current list of predictions, so I don't pick a number already taken?
It's on post #291

ZFR 5/7/2021 109287103 12/14/2021
ZFR 5/7/2021 109287119 12/14/2021
ZFR 5/7/2021 109287131 12/14/2021

You cannot guess more numbers as all 3 previous exponents are still above the milestone.

2021-12-08, 16:03   #329
ZFR

Feb 2008
Meath, Ireland

3·61 Posts

Quote:
 Originally Posted by tuckerkao It's on post #291 ZFR 5/7/2021 109287103 12/14/2021 ZFR 5/7/2021 109287119 12/14/2021 ZFR 5/7/2021 109287131 12/14/2021 You cannot guess more numbers as all 3 previous exponents are still above the milestone.
I know all this. I meant list of all live numbers picked by others.

 2021-12-08, 17:01 #330 Uncwilly 6809 > 6502     """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101ร103 Posts 17·619 Posts I will post it a bit later. I may have to step away from the terminal at a moment's notice.

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