Predict M52

Uncwilly · 2018-12-12, 20:07

With M51 found and verified and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M52 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.)

THE RULES OF THE GAME:

Post your guess here, no PM'ing.
Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you do guess a number or date that has already been submitted, this will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor. Guessing a number with a known factor will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.
If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it.
You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed.
All guesses received within the 48 hours before M52 is reported (by or to anyone by any method) are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating). This disqualification period will extend through to the time that a person reports to the forum that a candidate prime has been noticed. When that happens all guessing is closed.
The discoverer of M52 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 10 hours after they were assigned and/or started the expo (whichever is first) that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified.
If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored.
For the sake of this game, we will use the date (in UTC) that the prime is reported to and recorded by the PrimeNet server as the date (PRP or LL result). This may differ from the officially reported discovery date. If M52 is not first reported to PrimeNet, the judgement of the date to be used will be left up to George or his designee.
Previous discoverers (not the noticers) of M Primes are granted an extra guess (4 vs. the standard 3). This means the person who used the machine that first reported the prime.

All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated.
Absurd guesses may be ignore it any statistical reports or graphs.
Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread.
Make your guess clear in your post.

GAME ON!

petrw1 · 2018-12-12, 20:19

87,654,361

December 25, 2019

ewmayer · 2018-12-12, 21:43

96000193, May 1st 2021.

Batalov · 2018-12-12, 22:15

110691517
6-19-2022
(optimistic, I know)

masser · 2018-12-12, 22:37

Recycling an M50 prediction...

Quote:

118,788,157

August 8th, 2020.

... and an M51 prediction:

Quote:

Originally Posted by masser

117003179

November 24, 2022

Dylan14 · 2018-12-14, 13:43

Exponent: 97,200,647

Date: February 2, 2021

tServo · 2018-12-14, 18:10

December 31, 2019

I am betting that the as the new PRP checking is adopted by more folks, the rate of exponents being tested for compositness will greatly accelerate.

moebius · 2018-12-14, 22:25

87885437
March 30 th 2019

Uncwilly · 2018-12-14, 22:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by moebius

(2^(M51+2000238))-1

That is not a valid guess. Your guess must be a specific prime number. No expressions or ranges. If you decide after M51 is announced to post the equivalent value, you may. But, this counts against your 3 potential guesses. The 60 rule is thus invoked.

moebius · 2018-12-14, 22:43

Yes I did an mistake and changed it, but your post was faster than my brain. Excuse me.

Prime95 · 2018-12-16, 19:31

Mr. Wagstaff and I predict: M107448181
June 2022

2018-12-12, 20:07	#1
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 10538₁₀ Posts	Predict M52 With M51 found and verified and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M52 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.) THE RULES OF THE GAME: Post your guess here, no PM'ing. Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.) Failure to guess a prime number will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6. You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you do guess a number or date that has already been submitted, this will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6. If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor. Guessing a number with a known factor will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6. If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it. You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed. All guesses received within the 48 hours before M52 is reported (by or to anyone by any method) are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating). This disqualification period will extend through to the time that a person reports to the forum that a candidate prime has been noticed. When that happens all guessing is closed. The discoverer of M52 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 10 hours after they were assigned and/or started the expo (whichever is first) that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified. If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored. For the sake of this game, we will use the date (in UTC) that the prime is reported to and recorded by the PrimeNet server as the date (PRP or LL result). This may differ from the officially reported discovery date. If M52 is not first reported to PrimeNet, the judgement of the date to be used will be left up to George or his designee. Previous discoverers (not the noticers) of M Primes are granted an extra guess (4 vs. the standard 3). This means the person who used the machine that first reported the prime. All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated. Absurd guesses may be ignore it any statistical reports or graphs. Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread. Make your guess clear in your post. GAME ON! Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2019-08-29 at 14:00 Reason: errant 'e' removed.

2018-12-14, 22:25	#8
moebius "CharlesgubOB" Jul 2009 Germany 26D₁₆ Posts	87885437 March 30 th 2019 Last fiddled with by moebius on 2018-12-14 at 22:39

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2018-12-12, 20:19	#2
petrw1 1976 Toyota Corona years forever! "Wayne" Nov 2006 Saskatchewan, Canada 3·11·157 Posts	87,654,361 December 25, 2019

2018-12-12, 21:43	#3
ewmayer ∂²ω=0 Sep 2002 República de California 2⁴×733 Posts	96000193, May 1st 2021.

2018-12-12, 22:15	#4
Batalov "Serge" Mar 2008 Phi(4,2^7658614+1)/2 3×29×113 Posts	110691517 6-19-2022 (optimistic, I know)

2018-12-14, 13:43	#6
Dylan14 "Dylan" Mar 2017 2⁴×37 Posts	Exponent: 97,200,647 Date: February 2, 2021

2018-12-14, 18:10	#7
tServo "Marv" May 2009 near the Tannhäuser Gate 3³·29 Posts	December 31, 2019 I am betting that the as the new PRP checking is adopted by more folks, the rate of exponents being tested for compositness will greatly accelerate.

2018-12-14, 22:43	#10
moebius "CharlesgubOB" Jul 2009 Germany 3³×23 Posts	Yes I did an mistake and changed it, but your post was faster than my brain. Excuse me.

2018-12-16, 19:31	#11
Prime95 P90 years forever! Aug 2002 Yeehaw, FL 2⁴×17×29 Posts	Mr. Wagstaff and I predict: M107448181 June 2022