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Old 2018-01-01, 06:36   #1
Uncwilly
6809 > 6502
 
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Aug 2003
101×103 Posts

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Default Predict "M51"

With M50 found and only the official announcement awaiting, let's guess M51 (specifically, the next, currently unknown, Mersenne Prime yet to be noticed by a human.)

THE RULES OF THE GAME:
  1. Post your guess here, no PM'ing.
  2. Your guess must include a prime number (we are guessing the exponent) and/or date of discovery. No ranges, they may be ignored (or we may take the worst case of the range as the choice.)
  3. You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed.
  4. If you guess a number that has known factor, at the time you posted, your guess will be ignored. It can have a 'composite' LL or PRP status (pending a recheck), but not a factor.
  5. If there is a tie (i.e. 2 posts are equally close and meet all other rules), the first post gets it.
  6. You may post 3 guesses (for each number and date). If all exponents up to your number have had a first time test (or DC), you may select another, after a 60 day wait. Same (60 day wait) for date predictions that have passed.
  7. All guesses received within the 48 hours before M51 is reported are hereby disqualified (to prevent cheating). This disqualification period will extend through to the time that a person reports to the forum that a candidate prime has been noticed. When that happens all guessing is closed.
  8. The discoverer of M51 (not the 'noticer') will have all guesses posted more than 30 hours after they were assigned the expo that is reported to be prime hereby disqualified.
  9. If the prime that is reported fails the rechecks, those disqualified in 7 and 8 will be restored.
  10. For the sake of this game, we will use the date that the prime is reported to the PrimeNet server as the date. This may differ from the officially reported discovery date.

All previous guesses from other threads must be specifically restated.
Absurd guesses may be ignore it any statistical reports or graphs.
Rules may be clarified later. New rules for the next game may be suggested in this thread.

GAME ON!
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Old 2018-01-01, 08:48   #2
Batalov
 
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"Serge"
Mar 2008
Phi(4,2^7658614+1)/2

215768 Posts
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110691517
6-19-2022
(optimistic, I know)
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Old 2018-01-01, 09:42   #3
GP2
 
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Sep 2003

2,579 Posts
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282,362,693

March 3, 2025
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Old 2018-01-01, 10:53   #4
axn
 
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Jun 2003

33·173 Posts
Default

85833733 2018-11-15
98760853 2020-04-20
115218151 2022-07-01
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Old 2018-01-01, 15:20   #5
ATH
Einyen
 
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Dec 2003
Denmark

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I'll redo my guess from the M50 thread:

99116189
2019-11-28
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Old 2018-01-01, 15:46   #6
moebius
 
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Jul 2009
Germany

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(2^83018113) -1
June, 9th 2018
somewhere in that range .....

Last fiddled with by moebius on 2018-01-01 at 15:49
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Old 2018-01-02, 03:29   #7
Prime95
P90 years forever!
 
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Aug 2002
Yeehaw, FL

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Quote:
Originally Posted by GP2 View Post
On average we can expect the exponent of the next Mersenne prime to be about 1.47576 times larger than the previous one.
So we would expect the exponent of GIMPS' sixteenth prime to be around 636 million...

Code:
	1257787 (last Slowinski prime)
	1856192
	2739294
	4042540
	5965819
	8804116
	12992763
	19174200
	28296517
	41758868
	61626067
	90945284
	134213412
	198066786
	292299040
	431363231
	636588601
...or maybe we're just awfully lucky!
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Old 2018-01-02, 04:12   #8
petrw1
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
 
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"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada

3·5·172 Posts
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99,999,703

April 3, 2023
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Old 2018-01-02, 10:00   #9
M344587487
 
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"Composite as Heck"
Oct 2017

32·67 Posts
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344587487, 2025-07-15

I know it's probably too large to be M51 proper, but it'll be M51(?) if it's the next one discovered ;)
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Old 2018-01-02, 14:01   #10
VictordeHolland
 
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"Victor de Hollander"
Aug 2011
the Netherlands

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16 December 2021
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Old 2018-01-02, 15:17   #11
firejuggler
 
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Apr 2010
Over the rainbow

1001010000102 Posts
Default

85021099
in mid december 2019
M49 was found on late december 2015/early january 2016 so lets hope for the same short delay

Last fiddled with by firejuggler on 2018-01-02 at 15:19
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