
View Poll Results: When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?  
By the end of 2004  2  3.64%  
First half of 2005  9  16.36%  
Second half of 2005  14  25.45%  
First half of 2006  13  23.64%  
Second half of 2006 or later.  17  30.91%  
Voters: 55. You may not vote on this poll 

Thread Tools 
20040603, 22:01  #1 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2×4,441 Posts 
When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?
When will the first 10 million digit prime be reported?
We will assume that it is a Mersenne and that the date will be either the date of the report through PrimeNet or of the email to George by a nonPrimeNet searcher. Voters are encouraged to talk about their votes and reasons. Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 20040603 at 22:04 
20040603, 22:12  #2 
Aug 2002
A Dyson Sphere
3^{2}·7 Posts 
My guess is first half of 2006. I think it will come then because I don't think that a 10,000,000 digit prime will be discovered until the "normal" testers begin testing those numbers. Remember that although we have made a lot of progress testing 33M numbers the vast majority of our computing power is doing normal first time tests. Based at the current rate of about 5,000,000/year we should get past 33M in the first half of 2006. Then I was optimistic, guessing that we would find a prime there soon after we began testing there in earnest.

20040604, 02:01  #3 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
8882_{10} Posts 
40 views, 9 votes. so far a baby bell curve.

20040604, 02:52  #4 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2·4,441 Posts 
Feb 13, 2005 7:42 am GMT
Prime Monster will find it. 
20040604, 04:21  #5 
May 2004
This universe
22_{16} Posts 
Can't see the leader

20040604, 15:54  #6 
Banned
"Luigi"
Aug 2002
Team Italia
13×367 Posts 
I noticed two things:
1  People is working hard on prefactoring 2  Sierpinski and Riesel prime numbers are rapidly growing in size I guess that by the first half of 2005 we'll have our 10,000,000 digits prime. Luigi 
20040604, 19:00  #7 
Sep 2002
Oeiras, Portugal
2^{4}×89 Posts 
I voted for "2nd half of 2006 or later", because in fact LL leading edge is likely to reach 33M in 1H2006, but there is no guarantee whatsoever that we´ll have a 10M digit prime right there. That´s only where it begins to be possible to find them. So I wouldn´t be surprised if we had to wait until 2007. Unless some nonGIMPSter spoils the party and finds a 10M digit nonMersenne prime before we find a Mersenne...

20040915, 20:45  #8 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
22B2_{16} Posts 
bump

20040916, 11:36  #9 
Oct 2003
Croatia
2^{3}·3·19 Posts 
I vote "Second half of 2005". We will see...

20050204, 00:06  #10 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2×4,441 Posts 
Bump
At least 2 people were wrong. 
20050205, 06:29  #11 
"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA
2^{2}×3×599 Posts 
My record on publiclyposted predictions is just awful  really poor. So I'm voting "Second half of 2006 or later" for the good of the cause ...

Thread Tools  
Similar Threads  
Thread  Thread Starter  Forum  Replies  Last Post 
Odditities in the 100 Million Digit Prime Award  joblack  Information & Answers  20  20091111 10:27 
Smallest tenmilliondigit prime  Heck  Factoring  9  20041028 11:34 
k = 2 thru 31 Ten Million Digit numbers  TTn  15k Search  4  20040821 18:20 
100 MILLION DIGIT NUMBER  lpmurray  Software  8  20040531 19:22 
The first (nonmerseinne) 10 milliondigit prime number!!!  ron29730  Miscellaneous Math  17  20040515 20:23 