Riesel base 3 reservations/statuses/primes

[henryzz]

Originally Posted by henryzz

Thanks. I will start testing in a week or 2 when my other base 3 reservation is finished.

[2011-10-10 16:23:50 GMT] 10886318*3^240181-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!
[2011-10-12 17:47:38 GMT] 11005406*3^234173-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!
[2011-10-12 18:56:53 GMT] 11543008*3^114992-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!
[2011-10-12 20:11:51 GMT] 11926424*3^119299-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!
[2011-10-12 21:25:48 GMT] 12518444*3^111100-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!
[2011-10-27 10:31:52 GMT] 14523304*3^249532-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!
[2011-10-27 14:07:09 GMT] 16571998*3^151721-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!
[2011-10-31 08:45:16 GMT] 18232358*3^155836-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!
[2011-11-01 16:44:05 GMT] 19379356*3^123081-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!
[2011-11-02 06:17:26 GMT] 19885204*3^207385-1: Prime returned by david1@mdds.me.uk using pfgw.exe (Prover: pfgw.exe)!

k=10M-20M is tested to 250k. Commencing sieving optimal for 500k.

[gd_barnes]

Originally Posted by henryzz

k=10M-20M is tested to 250k. Commencing sieving optimal for 500k.

OK, thanks.

You last reported in an Email that k=4M-10M was at n=480K and that you were searching it to n=500K. Did you finish that range?

[henryzz]

Originally Posted by gd_barnes

OK, thanks.

You last reported in an Email that k=4M-10M was at n=480K and that you were searching it to n=500K. Did you finish that range?

Yes I did. I thought I had sent the results. I will gather together some results files for you and email them.
edit: Sent.

[henryzz]

12850412*3^287506-1 is prime

Pretty certain this is my biggest non-base 2 prime so far.

[paleseptember]

Originally Posted by henryzz

12850412*3^287506-1 is prime

Pretty certain this is my biggest non-base 2 prime so far.

Congratulations!

[henryzz]

Didn't take me long to beat it.
14028218*3^342326-1 is prime
k=10-15M is tested to 350k
k=15-20M is tested to 300k

[henryzz]

Originally Posted by henryzz

Didn't take me long to beat it.
14028218*3^342326-1 is prime
k=10-15M is tested to 350k
k=15-20M is tested to 300k

10766804*3^408240-1 is prime
k=10-15M is tested to 425k
k=16874152 is tested to 412k
k=17-20M are still at 300k
Based on 5-10M I should expect 1.67 more primes from this range. Of course this range is larger than k=5-10M so that doesn't mean much

[henryzz]

Originally Posted by henryzz

10766804*3^408240-1 is prime
k=10-15M is tested to 425k
k=16874152 is tested to 412k
k=17-20M are still at 300k
Based on 5-10M I should expect 1.67 more primes from this range. Of course this range is larger than k=5-10M so that doesn't mean much

17791294*3^325700-1 is prime
k=16874152 is tested to 425k

[henryzz]

Just been applying some probability to my base 3 work.
From 250k-500k, 12ks remaining at 250k and 48389 candidates sieved to 6T. The columns marked crus include stopping the search after a prime has been found for a k. This calculation relies on the ks all having the same weight but that shouldn't make too much difference.

n    n primes    at least n primes    n primes crus    at least n primes crus
0     0.212%        100%                 0.212%           100%
1     1.307%         99.788%             1.707%            99.788%
2     4.021%         98.481%             6.292%            98.081%
3     8.251%         94.460%            14.056%            91.788%
4    12.696%         86.209%            21.195%            77.732%
5    15.629%         73.512%            22.726%            56.538%
6    16.032%         57.884%            17.768%            33.812%
7    14.096%         41.852%            10.206%            16.044%
8    10.844%         27.756%             4.275%             5.837%
9     7.415%         16.912%             1.273%             1.562%
10    4.564%          9.497%             0.256%             0.289%
11    2.553%          4.933%             0.031%             0.033%
12    1.309%          2.380%             0.002%             0.002%

I found it surprising how different the probabilities are when crus style searching is included. Also another thing worth looking at is the cumulative probabilities. For the non-crus values 6 is the most likely outcome but we often overlook that there is 41% chance of there being more that 6 primes. I am pretty certain that if at least 6 primes is reached then there is 73% chance of there being more than 6 primes.
This functionally should reach the odds of prime spreadsheet in the near future.

Returning back to this search I have 4 primes so far and the most likely outcome is 5 primes using crus style searching rather that the 6 primes the standard method suggests so I expect 1 more prime. The expected number of primes is 4.815 with crus style searching and 6.155 with standard searching.

[henryzz]

ks 10M-20M are all at 425k continuing

[VBCurtis]

Taking 2000M to 2050M.