20190329, 18:38  #3059 
1976 Toyota Corona years forever!
"Wayne"
Nov 2006
Saskatchewan, Canada
3×11×157 Posts 

20190329, 18:42  #3060  
Jun 2015
Vallejo, CA/.
1,097 Posts 
LOOKS VERY PROMISING. Things have changed notably!
Quote:


20190330, 03:27  #3061 
Serpentine Vermin Jar
Jul 2014
5^{2}·7·19 Posts 
Cool. Sometimes machines reboot or hang or whatever and the person may not realize it.
I was doing a stress test on a new desktop and had Prime95 cooking away on it. It was a few days before I realized it had rebooted to install some updates or whatever (I wasn't running it as a service or anything). 
20190330, 13:14  #3062  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
6480_{10} Posts 
12...
Quote:
One of David Barina's ten has already completed, and 3 more are expected to complete today. So it seemed well worth the minor effort to contact him. Expiration of Craig Chadwick's 3.4% complete does not concern me. This milestone should go pretty straightforwardly and quickly from here, if the one expiration does not land on too slow a machine. 

20190331, 12:20  #3063 
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{4}·3^{4}·5 Posts 
9 left to 47M DC
6 of which are projected to be done in 5 days.
https://www.mersenne.org/assignments...tf=1&exfirst=1 
20190331, 15:49  #3064 
Feb 2017
Nowhere
1011010010011_{2} Posts 
Countdown to 48th known Mersenne being known 48th Mersenne
I was wondering if there was an ETA for doublechecking the remaining exponents up to 57885161 (the exponent of the 48th known Mersenne prime, but not yet known to be the 48th Mersenne prime because of exponents not yet doublechecked).
By looking at the Exponent Status Distribution page, I did a BOTE calculation. I tried adding (approximately, since I was doing it by sight) the assigned and available DC's, and dividing by the current rate of clearing 175 DC's per day. I got something around two and a half years. I might have screwed up the arithmetic, but is the method reasonable? 
20190331, 16:14  #3065  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
2^{4}×3^{4}×5 Posts 
Quote:
In a month or two we'll pass 47M DC completely, 57885161 ~58M, delta=11M; https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/ see DC section, 2014 thru 2018 averaged 4M annually of DC milestones; 11M/4M=2.75 years; early 2022 to 58M. ~115K/4000K * 365 days ~ 10 days rounding error to 58M. Looks reasonable, and actually pretty good agreement. For your same method, what do you get for firsttime checks through 100M? Second napkin: first test milestone progression 6M/year in 20172018*; 82M through end of 2018; rough est 18/6=3 years, end of 2021 for 100M first test milestone. (* last 2018 milestone was accelerated a bit to complete 12/30/18) Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20190331 at 16:15 

20190331, 16:57  #3066  
Einyen
Dec 2003
Denmark
3,313 Posts 
Quote:
Last 30 days we did 5854 LLD under 100M or 195 per day, while the last 365 days we did 61447 or 168 per day. https://www.mersenne.org/report_milestones/ There are 148,976 left until 57885161, so probably somewhere between 148976/195 ~ 764 days (20210503) and 148976/168 ~ 887 days (20210903). 

20190331, 17:38  #3067  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
14520_{8} Posts 
Quote:
In Feb 2018, DC activity was spread out over ~10M; in Nov 2018, also 10M. https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...73&postcount=2 It's also currently around 10M width. https://www.mersenne.org/primenet/ Milestones are accomplished when the trailing edge of the wavefront passes the significant point. Time skew between the DC wavefront's median active exponent and trailing edge is ~1.6 years. Median remaining DC below 58M is ~53.5M now. Typical DC candidate count ahead of the wavefront is ~19154/M in the range of interest. The wavefront will advance, based on ATH's 30day rate, at 19154/5854 * 30d/M or 98.16d/M. (57.88546.753)M * 98.16/M =1093 days = 2.99 years. The acceleration implied in the 30 day and 365 day numbers if it continues could take a few months off that. Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20190331 at 18:03 

20190401, 04:42  #3068 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
5^{2}·421 Posts 
Since the assignment rules change, I believe that the rate of ticking off milestones for the DC's has gone up. I don't have the data at hand. I will have to look at it when I get to the machine that the data live on.

20190401, 12:56  #3069  
Feb 2017
Nowhere
5,779 Posts 
Quote:
I reckon there's a "wave" of DC's closing in on the next known Mersenne prime (exponent 57885161), and a "wave" of (first) LL's between about 83000000 and 91000000. There are also "waves" of TF and P1 activity that start around 90000000, which I reckon will mostly run their courses before the "waves" of LL and DC activity go through. I suppose you could use clearance rates for these activities to get estimates. I imagine, however, one would have to juggle such variables as (1) the required effort increasing with the size of the exponents, (2) the speed of computing hardware/software, and (3) the amount of hardware being thrown at the project. Too much for my pea brain For the moment, I'm quite pleased to have some idea how long it will be until we know to DC certainly the next Mersenne prime. 

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