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Old 2021-06-30, 21:34   #34
diep
 
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Uncwilly - "1 individual doing X" isn't mainstream society yet.

Factories worldwide got used to using CNC milling machines back in the 1980s. Back in the 1940s what was there of course we can not call CNC machines by any sort of standard simply because they didn't have a CPU yet.

You'd call that dedicated production machines. So such machines would be able to produce just 1 specific part.

If we talk world war 2 here - you could argue Hitler didn't know anything about logistics let alone industry. In entire 1942 the total production of Panzer-4 tanks by Hitler-Germany was somewhere around 990.

Summer offensive 1942 Hitler's forces had only around a 140 Pz4 tanks with a 75mm barrel that could knock out a T-34 (other than captured T-34's).

In the entire Mars mission fairy tales we do see each time the returning problem of lack of insight into industry what's needed to mass produce a specific part let alone what you need to produce hundreds of thousands of different parts.

Also missing is the huge expertise needed to maintain equipment. A single crew of a handful of men cannot carry out all tasks needed to maintain all this tooling and machinery and equipment you need for a settlement on Mars. First of all: they lack the experience how to do it. Plumbing, building electronics, operating CNC machines, producing chemicals. They won't have time to do any sort of exploration on Mars - they will be so busy surviving - and die while trying to survive.

Yet in the end that exploration on Mars one cannot risk their lives in a pressure suit on the surface of Mars. So they operate the robots remote. You can do that from planet earth as well.

Last fiddled with by diep on 2021-06-30 at 21:36
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Old 2021-06-30, 21:45   #35
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Quote:
Originally Posted by diep View Post
Yet in the end that exploration on Mars one cannot risk their lives in a pressure suit on the surface of Mars.
Never send a machine to do a human's job.

Until AGI becomes real (at which point we carbon-based life forms become redundant) humans are useful. And should be used to get the job done.
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Old 2021-06-30, 22:21   #36
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Quote:
Originally Posted by diep View Post
edit:
Oh by the way - solar panels on Mars have at least 1 problem - there is storms on Mars. They can last for years. There is no sunlight then that reaches the surface.
Again, your head is in the sand. A fixed location solar install will have solar panels that can track the sun (this can be done without gears). When they do they will dump any dust (and we can include a little vibrator to help shake the dust loose. As has been shown recently with Insight, people can figure out how to clear dust from solar panels remotely. With a person there, even easier. And it is false to assume that there is no light getting to the surface during a dust storm.
Quote:
Originally Posted by https://www.mars-one.com/faq/mission-to-mars/what-are-the-risks-of-dust-and-sand-on-mars
during dust storms, the solar panels will yield less energy.

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2021-07-04 at 01:31
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Old 2021-06-30, 23:01   #37
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1) Manage planet earth as if Diep is correct about Mars and any other "backup" location being beyond impractical.
I've done project support for things at the South Pole Station. They have their own machine shops, diesel mechanic, etc. There's adequate O2 concentration and atmospheric pressure there, and frozen water, normal gravity, several advantages relative to Mars. Yet decades later, it's still reliant on regular resupply of building materials, food, fuel, and other consumables, scientific equipment, personnel, etc. The total human population of the content is transient and fluctuating 1000-4000, and not self sustaining; only 11 have been born there. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demogr..._of_Antarctica It's more economic to resupply than try to do it all there.

2) By all means hammer Diep on some clear inaccuracies. Progress the debate onto a sounder basis.

3) Manage space exploration and technological development with an eye to proving Diep wrong, in the very long term by normal human standards, as a small side project along with using what's here far more efficiently and sustainably.

4) Realize that time may be short; humanity may do itself in here before there's a good viable alternative location found / made feasible. (My nightmare scenario is a psychopathic religious zealot getting hold of enough genetic engineering to create a race-or-ethnicity-specific deadly virus, and they get it (even more) wrong, with too broad coverage, or it mutates while on the loose to general primate fatality.)

5) Realize that "terraforming" Mars is a short term proposition; it lacks the gravity and magnetism to retain a human-compatible atmosphere beyond ~5000 years from some hypothetically created earth-like atmosphere, never mind the incredible energy budget and technology and patience creating such an atmosphere would require.

6) Information transfer is probably the easiest part. Send some high storage capacity low power computer gear that survives the trip well, and preloaded with the most-likely-needed and perhaps-urgently needed data, and more available space for what you discover later you need to know also. The round trip latency by radio or laser link, Mars-Earth-Mars, assuming a visible satellite in orbit at each end, is similar to my round trip driving to the nearest public library, and perhaps lower energy usage. Otherwise, with no Mars satellite relay, you might need to wait for long-latency internet access up to about half a Martian day for establishment of a line of sight transmission path. https://blogs.esa.int/mex/2012/08/05...ars-and-earth/ My local library closes every night and all weekend.

7) A working space elevator system on earth would substantially change the economics to orbit and beyond. https://static1.squarespace.com/stat...ingNow8Mar.pdf
The megatons of payload for various purposes are large undertakings with rockets but inconsequential compared to earth's approx 6x1021 metric ton mass, which is very slowly shrinking, at ~-55,000 metric tons/year. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_mass#Variation

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-06-30 at 23:09
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Old 2021-06-30, 23:16   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kriesel View Post
5) Realize that "terraforming" Mars is a short term proposition; it lacks the gravity and magnetism to retain a human-compatible atmosphere beyond ~5000 years from some hypothetically created earth-like atmosphere, never mind the incredible energy budget and technology and patience creating such an atmosphere would require.
Agreed.

Humans living off-earth will most likely be in "cans", "caves" or "domes" for quite some time.

Still worth the effort (including the risk), IMHO.
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Old 2021-06-30, 23:40   #39
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Quote:
Originally Posted by diep View Post
Also missing is the huge expertise needed to maintain equipment. A single crew of a handful of men cannot carry out all tasks needed to maintain all this tooling and machinery and equipment you need for a settlement on Mars. First of all: they lack the experience how to do it. Plumbing, building electronics, operating CNC machines, producing chemicals.
I should introduce you to some of my former coworkers.
A lot of expertise can travel in one head. One: built firearms, disposed of military ordnance, ran multiple overhead crane hoists in a coordinated fashion as a welding positioner for suspended semi trailers, was safety certified on most everything in the shop, an experienced instrument maker, got lots of questions from others and was a good person for engineers to brainstorm with and bounce ideas off, worked with hollow roller bearings with multiple microinch tolerances and thermal fits, occasionally hand polishing the mounting bores to ideal fit, ran assorted machine tools as needed and stick, MIG, TIG or spot welders, oxyacetylene & hydrogen torches, used chemicals for cleaning components for ultra high vacuum use, worked with liquid nitrogen, minor plumbing as needed, worked in clean room garb to assemble ultra-high-vacuum precision mechanisms, do bakeouts, and traveled the world doing installations and service calls of custom (unique) instrumentation. In his spare time he'd drive and maintain his dentist's Ferrari or Porsche. "Hey Ron it doesn't sound right to me but the dealer can't solve it. Take it for a week or two and see if you can find and fix it." He would commute with those beauties. I'm sure I'm forgetting some of his abilities. Probably was involved in manned-spaceflight-rated payload hardware and medical equipment prototypes, etc.
His usual coworker Tim had a long list too. And yes they did teardown and maintenance of machine tools, leak checkers, welders, etc. on occasion. Add Don the physicist who also had some chemistry background and other interests & skills, someone for electronics including power electrical (Phil), a miner/driller, and a doctor, lots of bases covered.
I think a crew like that could convert some landed spacecraft into shelter, safely, especially if it's designed for it, and comes with instructions and pre-training.

Last fiddled with by kriesel on 2021-06-30 at 23:52
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Old 2021-06-30, 23:55   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chalsall View Post
Never send a machine to do a human's job.

Until AGI becomes real (at which point we carbon-based life forms become redundant) humans are useful. And should be used to get the job done.
It's a waste of cash to ship humans trying just sitting underground operating remote robots what you can do from planet earth to using autonomeous robots.

It's just the same thing with burocrats who have a job. They prefer zero progress and keep doing things by hand.

We had a vice-prime minister who was favouring getting rid of all robots. (PvdA party - called labour in UK or SPD in Germany - not 1 to 1 comparable with democrats in USA but you could try that basically). Could've had a job at some space agency somewhere :)
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Old 2021-07-01, 00:04   #41
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Quote:
Originally Posted by diep View Post
It's a waste of cash to ship humans trying just sitting underground operating remote robots what you can do from planet earth to using autonomeous robots.
I'm now modeling you with a 98.7% probability of you being a troll. But you're useful to reflect against.

Are you familiar with the concept of latency? In the temporal domain.
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Old 2021-07-01, 00:15   #42
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kriesel: there is a difference in some sort of emergency facility where you can live for a short while and a permanent base which needs to be a bunker deep underground to shield against the radiation of the sun and where there is enough room to grow vegetables.

A manned mission to Mars would be a years long project for humans to stay on Mars for many many years and if having bad luck with yet another few rockets that explode or get damaged or simply do not arrive there is all sorts of problems you encounter.

Imagine that on ISS the astronauts would need to grow their own food. How much larger that would make ISS and the extra facilities you need on there.

Now project that onto Mars.
A small cabin is not enough.

You need a full blown undergrounds quarter which is entirely pressurized. Obviously you use materials on Mars itself for something like that. Yet to build something like that and maintain it - is a total different league than what you might guess.

And it may not leak.

Remember that what astronauts on ISS get exposed to would be difficult to expose those on Mars to. So you would want to shelter them from such radiation. Now we've had several astronauts in ISS there for quite some time - yet the damage done to a person there would not be acceptable on a quarters on Mars.

You cannot build something there and say: "heh if you stay longer than 2 years here you are dead for sure".
Or: "heh if you stay 5 years here we know 100% sure you are 99% dead because of cancer as you swallowed too much radiation for sure then".

So you need something underground there which is pretty huge and has that much space that you can have redundancy.

Obviously that involves raw materials sourced on Mars as well.

So change the thinking from something ad hoc that might just be enough to: huge and redundant.

It's similar like building a small rocket versus larger rocket.

You and i probably can build a small rocket of a couple of meters say a meter or 7 here in my workshop.
In parts obvously. And assembling would not be possible in my office of course as it wouldn't fit through the door such rocket. So you assemble it elsewhere in a garag. We can launch it. It will work. Garantueed.

But when you scale up such rocket and build a much larger one - say 15 meters tall - which can go more than 100KM high and potentially travel to ISS with some very small cargo - then just 'enlarging' the rocket isn't enough. Complexity suddenly changes then.

That's what a manned mission on Mars is too.

We hear all sorts of 'good weather' information on travelling times to Mars for example.
With some 'faster rocket' it would be possible to go there faster.

Sure - best case. But what if you have an EMERGENCY mission to Mars to deliver some much needed parts there?

Those cargo rockets of course are gonna be slow ones and suddenly traveltime is a year - and what if it crashes on arrival there?

They dead then over there?

Please try to realize the scaling up problem.
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Old 2021-07-01, 00:21   #43
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chalsall View Post
I'm now modeling you with a 98.7% probability of you being a troll. But you're useful to reflect against.

Are you familiar with the concept of latency? In the temporal domain.
How about googling for the latency test i wrote for supercomputers.
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Old 2021-07-01, 00:22   #44
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Quote:
Originally Posted by diep View Post
They dead then over there?
Or... Perhaps...

You are Dead On Arrival (DOA) with your arguments.

Please know we are just "messing" with you now. You have no standing. And you fail every time you try to advance your cause.

Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 2021-07-05 at 22:42 Reason: took out the naughty word.
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