20170503, 05:46  #12 
Romulan Interpreter
Jun 2011
Thailand
2×3×31×47 Posts 

20170503, 09:43  #13  
Aug 2006
5,923 Posts 
Quote:


20170503, 10:05  #14  
Undefined
"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair
2·3·5·191 Posts 
Quote:
For most of these public lottery things the bias is probably very very small, and might be impossible to determine in any confident way. So I'd guess it is not an issue in this case. But if the number selection process is secret and hidden, or prerecorded, then all bets are off. Any number of shenanigans could be happening. 

20170503, 19:48  #15  
If I May
"Chris Halsall"
Sep 2002
Barbados
67×139 Posts 
Quote:
So few people understand that when given additional information (by a door being opened) their random guess should change to the alternative door. And yet so many people continue to buy lottery tickets. Or, as it is also known, a tax on those who are bad at the maths. 

20170504, 10:56  #16  
Aug 2006
5,923 Posts 
Quote:


20170505, 05:33  #17  
"Frank <^>"
Dec 2004
CDP Janesville
2×1,061 Posts 
Quote:
Quote:


20170505, 05:48  #18  
"Frank <^>"
Dec 2004
CDP Janesville
100001001010_{2} Posts 
Quote:
The only game drawn mechanically right now is SuperLotto (5/47 + 1/27); everything else is done with computers. Therer are two onsite machines and an offsite backup. , For each draw one machine and one of two methods to generate the numbers is chosen. I would imagine that if some bias could be found, that would be the scoop of the decade (or some kind of pattern could be glaned from the cashing patterns.) 

20170505, 06:38  #19 
"Frank <^>"
Dec 2004
CDP Janesville
84A_{16} Posts 
So the real reason I posted this was to check how crazy I was for trying a system that I came across while looking for some pick3 tracking software (nothing that I found that was really recent or too capable, especially without having to plunk down $50 or more to try it out.) If there were bias to be found, 14,448 draws might be enough to have it start to show.
Anyway, I found this blog with a couple of progressive systems; basically a martingale system where you play until you win, increasing bets when you lose, though the progression isn't "keep doubling until you win", since the odds on the game are not 50:50. For some reason I didn't choose the box prize side of things (maybe the prize wasn't big enough to tempt my reptilian gambling brain enough) so I jumped right in with the straight prize side of things. Starting back in February I played a bunch of Daily 3 games. The suggestion is to play either the afternoon or evening games only, but it's way easier to just play striaght through and use the advance feature. After three wins, I wanted to get a feel for what kind of risk I'm really running. Baesed on the chart, you can tell how far I was based on the amounts I was risking. First run, amount played: $1260, win: 3 @ $579=$1737, net win: $477 Second run, amount played: $290, win: 1 @ $409, net win: $119 Third run, amount played: $760, win: 2 @ $572=$1144, net win: $384 So after three wins in 3 months, I am up $980 over the series and this was with the same 10 numbers for the whole run. Also, since California pays all prizes parimutuelly, the first and third prizes were more than would have been wom with a fixed prize amount. And I could have netted slightly higher by playing each day, rather than using the advance draw feature noted above; all the wins were about in the middle of the series of 14 games you can play ahead, so I may have left $5060 on the table by being lazy. (The really nice thing is that the first win was 3 prizes under the cashing limit for a retail location, so no waiting and no 1099 at the end of the year!) Looking at the cummulative probability quoted in the thread above, it looks like I was really fortunate that I didn't get myself in a really deep hole, but I should quit while I'm ahead, huh? 
20170505, 06:46  #20 
"Frank <^>"
Dec 2004
CDP Janesville
2·1,061 Posts 
PS.
For a really bizarre game outcome, check out this 5/39 result. The jackpot starts at $75,000 and rolls until it hits. Whenever I mention this one to someone, I always image the winners at home, jumping up and down because their numbers came up.
The real question to me is: how many of the players picked these numbers themselves, and WTF were they thinking? 
20170505, 09:12  #21  
Aug 2006
5,923 Posts 
Quote:
The expectations assume a prize of $500, as at the link. Your prizes were of different sizes, averaging slightly higher ($520); depending on how these numbers are determined the expectations will vary, but the basics will be the same. Yes. Each additional game you play causes you to lose money, on average. Last fiddled with by CRGreathouse on 20170505 at 09:18 

20170505, 15:13  #22 
"Mike"
Aug 2002
7,691 Posts 

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