
View Poll Results: when do you think we'll have practical quantum computers?  
between now and 5 years  1  3.85%  
between 510 years  2  7.69%  
between 1020 years  13  50.00%  
between 2030  4  15.38%  
over 30 years  6  23.08%  
Voters: 26. You may not vote on this poll 

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20031107, 00:28  #1 
Bemusing Prompter
"Danny"
Dec 2002
California
900_{16} Posts 
when do you think we will have practical quantum computers?
Well, there are small scale quantum computers, but when do you think we will have one that can factor supermassive numbers, etc?
My guess is in 510 years. By the way, for every day that passes, we are one day closer to the day on which practical quantum computers are realized. 
20031107, 06:32  #2 
Sep 2002
Austin, TX
561_{10} Posts 
...but, until that day comes silicon will be the norm.
It is going to be rough when we run up against silicon’s atomic limits... 
20031107, 06:52  #3  
"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA
2^{2}×3×641 Posts 
Re: when do you think we will have practical quantum computers?
Quote:
One big problem is maintaining coherence of all the qubits long enough for them to settle into the solution. IIRC, qubits lose coherence when they pick up "noise" (any disturbance) from their surroundings. The more qubits, the harder it is to isolate them all from their surroundings. Recently I saw an article about the increasing difficulties of isolating silicon circuits from static electricity in their surroundings as those circuits get smaller. 

20031107, 13:22  #4  
Bamboozled!
"𒉺𒌌𒇷𒆷𒀭"
May 2003
Down not across
2·3·1,709 Posts 
Re: when do you think we will have practical quantum computers?
Quote:
I was at a IEEE workshop a couple of years back where I gave a survey of integer factorization on conventional machines and made a courageous decision to predict when the first kilobit hard integer would be factored (on a conventional machine, of course). In case you are interested, my extrapolation from completed factorizations indicates it will happen at 07:15 UTC on 25th October 2015. Another delegate spoke about quantum computers. When asked the same question by a member of the audience, he replied "about 15 to 20 years". Rather interesting that the two technologies should overlap at about the 1 kilobit level, I thought. Paul 

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