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View Poll Results: when do you think we'll have practical quantum computers?
between now and 5 years 1 3.85%
between 5-10 years 2 7.69%
between 10-20 years 13 50.00%
between 20-30 4 15.38%
over 30 years 6 23.08%
Voters: 26. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 2003-11-07, 00:28   #1
ixfd64
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"Danny"
Dec 2002
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Default when do you think we will have practical quantum computers?

Well, there are small scale quantum computers, but when do you think we will have one that can factor super-massive numbers, etc?

My guess is in 5-10 years.
By the way, for every day that passes, we are one day closer to the day on which practical quantum computers are realized.
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Old 2003-11-07, 06:32   #2
E_tron
 
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Sep 2002
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...but, until that day comes silicon will be the norm.

It is going to be rough when we run up against silicon’s atomic limits...
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Old 2003-11-07, 06:52   #3
cheesehead
 
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"Richard B. Woods"
Aug 2002
Wisconsin USA

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Default Re: when do you think we will have practical quantum computers?

Quote:
Originally posted by ixfd64
when do you think we will have one that can factor super-massive numbers, etc?

My guess is in 5-10 years.
Oh, nowhere near that soon.

One big problem is maintaining coherence of all the qubits long enough for them to settle into the solution. IIRC, qubits lose coherence when they pick up "noise" (any disturbance) from their surroundings. The more qubits, the harder it is to isolate them all from their surroundings.

Recently I saw an article about the increasing difficulties of isolating silicon circuits from static electricity in their surroundings as those circuits get smaller.
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Old 2003-11-07, 13:22   #4
xilman
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"𒉺𒌌𒇷𒆷𒀭"
May 2003
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Default Re: when do you think we will have practical quantum computers?

Quote:
Originally posted by ixfd64
Well, there are small scale quantum computers, but when do you think we will have one that can factor super-massive numbers, etc?

My guess is in 5-10 years.
By the way, for every day that passes, we are one day closer to the day on which practical quantum computers are realized.
Current state of the art is that a QC has successfully factored 15.

I was at a IEEE workshop a couple of years back where I gave a survey of integer factorization on conventional machines and made a courageous decision to predict when the first kilobit hard integer would be factored (on a conventional machine, of course). In case you are interested, my extrapolation from completed factorizations indicates it will happen at 07:15 UTC on 25th October 2015.

Another delegate spoke about quantum computers. When asked the same question by a member of the audience, he replied "about 15 to 20 years". Rather interesting that the two technologies should overlap at about the 1 kilobit level, I thought.


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