20131224, 07:48  #12 
"Kieren"
Jul 2011
In My Own Galaxy!
9983_{10} Posts 

20131224, 07:56  #13 
"Lucan"
Dec 2006
England
6,451 Posts 

20131225, 04:01  #14  
Undefined
"The unspeakable one"
Jun 2006
My evil lair
1011010011100_{2} Posts 
Quote:
Probability per day = (tests per day)*(probability of error)/250,000 * probability of being prime ^{[sup][sup][sup][sup]Why is the colour tag missing the u?}[/sup][/sup][/sup][/sup] 

20131225, 04:23  #15  
"Lucan"
Dec 2006
England
6,451 Posts 
Quote:
What requires clarification is the LHS. It is the probability of a shock, namely finding a prime. As it stands it refers to Kieren's DCs. For my LL it would be (1/50)/450,000. Merry Christmas! Last fiddled with by philmoore on 20131225 at 06:17 Reason: Just trying to release from moderation queue 

20131225, 05:45  #16  
Jun 2003
1264_{16} Posts 
Quote:
Also, it is not "Probability per day", it is "Expected primes per day" (as in, with really large values, the result can easily be > 1) 

20131225, 08:53  #17  
"Lucan"
Dec 2006
England
6,451 Posts 
Quote:
The expected primes per day for the whole project is 1/1500. So the probability of one or more primes per day is 1  e^{=1/1500} = 1/1500.5 

20131225, 18:16  #18  
"Lucan"
Dec 2006
England
6,451 Posts 
Quote:
Perhaps the 0.5 is worth looking into: 1  e^{1/X} ~ 1/X  0.5*(1/X)^{2} = (1/X)*(1  0.5*(1/X)) ~ 1/(X*(1 + 0.5*(1/X)) = 1/(X + 0.5) Wish I had done it that way first time. Damn those calculators D 

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