
View Poll Results: Will GIMPS claim $100,000 award?  
Yes  38  90.48%  
No  4  9.52%  
Voters: 42. You may not vote on this poll 

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20080730, 12:33  #1 
Mar 2008
5_{10} Posts 
GIMPS may not claim $100,000
The attachment shows that GIMPS may not claim EFF $100,000 award and will not claim larger awards.

20080730, 13:13  #2 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2^{2}×5×431 Posts 
Please show your data.

20080730, 13:18  #3 
"Lucan"
Dec 2006
England
2·3·13·83 Posts 
Can you display actual data from the past 50 years please.

20080730, 13:19  #4 
Mar 2008
5 Posts 
Here it is.
XLS file containing largest known Mersenne and nonMersenne prime digits by year from 2005. 
20080730, 13:21  #5 
Mar 2008
5 Posts 

20080730, 14:42  #6  
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2^{2}×5×431 Posts 
Quote:
You expect 3 years woth of data, (on something that is not evenly distributed) to be able to predict 30 times further into the future? Maybe if you went to the start of GIMPS and began there, that would give you 12 years of data. Maybe if you consider where the bulk of first time LL's are being returned? Again, maybe you can use 50 years of data (the computer era) for the mersenne vs. non mersenne. You might actually have to know something about primes and where to find the data to do this. I have taken out the data points from 2008 (it doesn't take into account that GIMPS is still searching, just that there are no primes), and I gave the chart a more meaningful scale on the y. Further, I removed the clutter. Last fiddled with by Uncwilly on 20080730 at 14:43 

20080730, 16:11  #7 
Mar 2008
5 Posts 
Now I have absolutely nothing to answer.

20080730, 17:45  #8 
Nov 2003
2^{2}·5·373 Posts 

20080731, 19:51  #9 
"Lucan"
Dec 2006
England
1100101001010_{2} Posts 
Don't worry. The failure of RDS to acknowledge that an interesting
idea could lead to some useful school algebra level discussion is becoming legendary 
20080731, 20:00  #10 
Just call me Henry
"David"
Sep 2007
Cambridge (GMT/BST)
1011001011010_{2} Posts 

20080731, 22:07  #11 
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101×103 Posts
2^{2}×5×431 Posts 
More data:
I went to Chris Caldwell's site and pulled data from his top 5000 prime list. I could reach back to ~1990 with it. Here is a graph based upon that data. After 5000 his list is spotty. I also input the data from 19461951 era, for general primes. That with the data for mprimes causes the 2 trendlines to be parallel. 
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