Predict M44...

[Jean Penné]

Originally Posted by Citrix

Is it possible that M44 will never be found. It is still unknown if there are infinite mersenne primes.

Citrix

At present there are no demonstrations for this conjecture, but I am sure that all mathematicians believe that it is true!

[lycorn]

It will be found in the high 41Ms, by December 2007.
(It´s time to cool down a bit, after this lucky series of 4 MPs in less than 2 years...)
Oh yes, and it will be found by me...

[biwema]

I estimate M44 in the range 48000000 and 50000000 and will be found in 2007.

It will be funny if there was no new mersenne prime anymore below 20M digits and the guys from 3*2^n+1 and Seventeen or Bust also start to test 10M digi numbers.

[tom11784]

38066453 - June 23, 2007

[outlnder]

It will be in the low 35M range and I will find it March 27, 2006.

[99.94]

24th January 2007.

[drew]

Originally Posted by Lumo

So change my guess to whatever number before 36936929 has no factor.

Well in that case, I'll choose the next Mersenne number after M30402457 that has no factor.

Ok, my *real* guess, as I stated in the "Predict M43" thread after M43 was discovered, is 45219803.

Sept. 2007

[philmoore]

I notice that most people think the next one will be > 1 million digits, but from what I can see on the status page, we still have a roughly 1 in 3 chance of finding another Mersenne under 1 million digits. I predict July 14, 2006 and the exponent will be around 32,850,000.

[drew]

Originally Posted by philmoore

I notice that most people think the next one will be > 1 million digits, but from what I can see on the status page, we still have a roughly 1 in 3 chance of finding another Mersenne under 1 million digits.

I assume you mean 10 million.

Well, if you're just thinking statistically, the most likely candidate is the smallest number that has yet to be tested. We tend to think of the average spacing as if it has some sort of predicitive influence, as if we're 'due' to have a dry spell to pull us back in line. That's not true, however. It's the classic misinterpretation of the 'law of averages'.

OTOH, guessing a number above the pool of numbers that have already been tested leaves more available candidates in the vicinity of your guess, which makes you more likely to be a winner.

Drew

[Spherical Cow]

In honor of Douglas Adams....42424243.

Norm

[philmoore]

Originally Posted by drew

I assume you mean 10 million.

Yes, thanks. I pointed out after the last one that we still were expecting approximately .75 Mersenne primes in the range < 10 million digits, and sure enough, there is at least one. So why not one more? I think we're on a hot streak!