20210811, 15:50  #3433  
Jan 2021
California
460_{8} Posts 
Quote:


20210816, 06:58  #3434 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ
671_{8} Posts 
So far, it looks like we'll cross the M57885161 level on November 22, 2021.
That is, all tests below M57885161 will be verified by this date. We are moving pretty close to the predicted trend. 
20210816, 08:30  #3435 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ
3^{2}·7^{2} Posts 
And my prediction for all tests below M74207281 is ~August 29, 2025.
By this time, all exponents below ~143 million will be tested at least once. Of course the most intriguing would be the forecast of the time when the next Mersenne prime will be found. Perhaps I will make such a try a little later. Have you some ideas? :) Last fiddled with by greenskull on 20210816 at 08:40 
20210816, 17:49  #3436  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
41·149 Posts 
Quote:
The projection is an outlier compared to other methods. Here are two, giving ~October 6, based on the history of reaching the 56M DC milestone and remaining counts to Mp#48* versus date, and ~October 26 (detailed on page 5 of PDF attachment here) based on a polynomial fit to the previous ten years of DC milestones. 

20210816, 18:13  #3437  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
17DD_{16} Posts 
Quote:
B) PRP with GEC was introduced in Gpuowl with Mihai Preda announcing v1.0 on 20170830, with kracker's posting of a v1.0 Windows build occurring 20170904. That's a little over a month before first testing was completed up to 74207281 on 20171005. And admirably quick turnaround after Robert Gerbicz' post of the highly reliable fast PRP error check method on 20170813. Much of the double checking will be performed not with LL DC but with far more reliable PRP/GEC/proofgeneration/cert. (Be careful what you ask for ... ) Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210816 at 18:32 

20210816, 18:50  #3438  
6809 > 6502
"""""""""""""""""""
Aug 2003
101ร103 Posts
10,243 Posts 
Quote:
Quote:


20210816, 20:53  #3439  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
1011111011101_{2} Posts 
Quote:
Quote:
Uptake of PRP was unfortunately very slow initially. Partly because implementation in prime95 came a little later. (The prime95 v29.4b5 win64 executable is dated 20171111.) Partly because remaining exponents <74207281 and many above there had already been assigned and started as LL. Partly because of inertia and time to change scripting. There were 86 PRP/GEC first tests submitted before 20171005 (completion of first testing up to 74207281), all by Mihai, all above 75M, and type 4 indicating Gpuowl. Sampling selected days, for 74M and up, at https://www.mersenne.org/report_ll/?...dispdate=1&B1= and https://www.mersenne.org/report_prp/...exfactor=1&B1= 20180101 to 2, PRP 6; LL 289; total 295; PRP 2% 20190101 to 2, PRP 26; LL 212; total 238; PRP 10.9% 20190701 to 2, PRP 69; LL 219; total 288; PRP 24% 20190801 to 2, PRP 48; LL 188; total 236; PRP 20.3% 20190901 to 2, PRP 69; LL 216; total 285; PRP 24.2% 20191001 to 2, PRP 87; LL 222; total 309; PRP 28.2% 20191008 to 9, PRP 95; LL 397; total 492; PRP 19.3% 20191015 to 16, PRP 75; LL 577; total 652; PRP 11.5% 20191022 to 23, PRP 100; LL 477; total 577; PRP 17.3% 20191029 to 30, PRP 92; LL 385; total 477; PRP 19.3% 20191101 to 2, PRP 199; LL 315; total 514; PRP 38.7% 20200101 to 2, PRP 706; LL 152; total 858; PRP 82.3% and incorporating active assignments data from https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...35&postcount=1 20210127 79% PRP 20210328 83% PRP 20210430 98.9% PRP (shortly after cessation of the server issuing LL first tests 20210408) Last fiddled with by kriesel on 20210816 at 21:10 

20210817, 07:52  #3440  
Xebeche
Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ
3^{2}×7^{2} Posts 
Quote:
https://www.mersenneforum.org/showpo...postcount=3417 The axis values are not as interesting as it is interesting how well the current values (red crosses) fit into the trend I predicted. So far, everything looks very good :) I think that at the moment the dispute over whose forecast is better does not make sense. Time will tell everything. At the moment we can only place bets. 

20210817, 08:09  #3441  
Xebeche
Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ
110111001_{2} Posts 
Quote:
This means all this is already embedded in the curve and fine regression analysis is able to reveal all this. I want to be understood correctly. My main interest is all sorts of forecasting, regression analysis, extrapolation. And the data that I find here is an excellent raw material for my research. Perhaps I do not take into account all the fundamental factors, but as far as I understood from your comment, they have already been fully reflected in this very data. 

20210817, 09:00  #3442 
Xebeche
Apr 2019
๐บ๐๐บ
3^{2}·7^{2} Posts 
I suggest turning the forecasting into a game. Just for fun :)
Any Diviners when they wish, can make their predictions about the moment of the future event  the Moment of Truth. There can be any number of predictions. Obviously, the closer we are to the Moment of Truth (the shorter the Distance), the more reliable and accurate it can be predicted (less Error). Therefore, we should take into account not only the Error, but also the Distance with which the prediction was made. So I suggest: 1) To calculate the ratio of the Error in Prediction to the Distance from which this Prediction was made (Errorแตข/Distanceแตข) 2) To calculate the average of the ratios โ to divide the resulting sum by the Total Number of Predictions N made by the Diviner In order for the Rate to work on the principle of the more talented the Diviner, the higher the value 3) To take the reciprocal value from the received one in 2). Or in other words, to flip the ratio. The one whose Diviner Talent Rate to the accomplished Moment of Truth turns out to be the highest is the winner. The Divinerโs Talent Rate in the total number of Divinerโs Predictions encourages more accurate hits from a greater distance. And no matter how many Predictions the Diviner made, it is important how accurate Divinerโs Predictions were, taking into account the Distances from which they were made. IMPORTANT: 1) All predictions are in UTC time (it is a kind of GMT with no summertime shift). Date and time can be specified. If the time is not specified, then we count 12:00 (noon time). 2) If the Diviner leaves their previous prediction unchanged, it is not taken into account. If the Diviner changes their prediction relative to the previous one, then, of course, it is taken into account. Even if this prediction coincides with any one made before the previous one. As for the prize, it can be considered :) PS Kriesel, "gimps progress and rate.pdf"  nice report :) Thank you! Last fiddled with by greenskull on 20210817 at 09:15 
20210817, 16:22  #3443  
"TF79LL86GIMPS96gpu17"
Mar 2017
US midwest
41×149 Posts 
Quote:
The post I commented had no description did not link back to that. Quote:
Careful, use of lots of capital letters, defining your own terminology, etc, is elevating your crank score. The pdf has been available in a minor milestones post of the GIMPS progress thread of the statistics section of the reference info compilation, and updated regularly, for years. 

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