Predict M52

[drkirkby]

Originally Posted by ATH

Maybe when we have created a Matrioshka brain .


If we consider this theory valid: https://primes.utm.edu/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html

then the exponents for consecutive Mersenne Primes are on average: p_n+1 = 1.47576 * p_n

One could argue that the graph is levelling off.

Dave.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by drkirkby

1) 103720147 on 10th May
2) 110826173 on 10th May
3) 102529169 will be discovered on 12th May,

You did not guess a date (Year, month, and day)
If for 1 and 2 you mean this year, then Rule 7 applies (qv)
For guesses 1 and 2 (and maybe 3) Rule 8 applies.

See you in 60 days.

[drkirkby]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

You did not guess a date (Year, month, and day)
If for 1 and 2 you mean this year, then Rule 7 applies (qv)
For guesses 1 and 2 (and maybe 3) Rule 8 applies.

See you in 60 days.

I think rule 0 should be that all rules are printed in the same size text, so rules that disqualifies people are not in small text. See screenshot from my mobile phone.

Actually the Primenet server is unusable with Firefox on my iPhone. It works okay with other browsers.

I tried to reserve

https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...2529169&full=1

early hours in the morning, as I knew it was expiring today. So I wrote a script that killed mprime in the middle of the night, updated worktodo.txt, restarted mprime, then tried to reserve the exponent, but I was denied it until I had submitted the result from an exponent that finished today. Then I manage to reserve it. 👍👍👍👍👍 It is significantly smaller (well, saves about 1% of computing time), than any other exponent issued today that could be the next Mersenne prime👍👍

What happens with the LL test someone else was doing? His computer updated it today, so I assume that he is still working on it. But at his present rate of progress, his LL test will not finish for 6 months - he had completed about 33% in 3 months, so I guess 6 more months to complete it. I have not started it yet, but it will not take more than a couple of days to complete.

[slandrum]

Originally Posted by drkirkby

What happens with the LL test someone else was doing? His computer updated it today, so I assume that he is still working on it. But at his present rate of progress, his LL test will not finish for 6 months - he had completed about 33% in 3 months, so I guess 6 more months to complete it.

Their assignment is expired, but is still valid. They can complete it, turn it in and get credited GHz days. I'm sure unless they step in and stop it, it will complete eventually. This happens often. There's an assignment that was turned in within the last day that was 7 years past its expiration.

If they somehow turn in their result before your PRP test is done, it won't change the status of your PRP, PRP is not a valid double check of LL so your assignment will still count as a first time PRP. But almost certainly yours will finish first, get certified, and all the time spent by the original assignment will be effectively wasted effort.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by Raydex

2013/01/25 - 2009/06/04 = 1331 days

It appears that there was some data errors either from this page when I pulled it in or some other source. I have corrected my local table.

[tuckerkao]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

We have a loooong way to go to say it will be the longest gap.

2013-01-25 - 2009-04-12 = 1384 days
1996-09-03 - 1994-01-04 = 973 <- sort of counts.
2015-09-17 - 2013-01-25 = 965
2001-11-14 - 1999-06-01 = 897 days

As of now we are 882 days

11 more days have passed since this post, thus this gap is 893 days today, chance something surprising showing up within the next 4-5 days will be extremely rare.

I'm still believing the next Mersenne Prime will be in the M168,xxx,xxx region, if so, then the longest gap will be possible.

[drkirkby]

Originally Posted by tuckerkao

11 more days have passed since this post, thus this gap is 893 days today, chance something surprising showing up within the next 4-5 days will be extremely rare.

I'm still believing the next Mersenne Prime will be in the M168,xxx,xxx region, if so, then the longest gap will be possible.

What evidence supports your belief that the next Mersenne Prime will be in the M168,xxx,xxx region?

[tuckerkao]

Originally Posted by drkirkby

What evidence supports your belief that the next Mersenne Prime will be in the M168,xxx,xxx region?

When the result residue starts to show more 0s, a Mersenne Prime with a similar format maybe nearby, see attached screenshot -
https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...7309449&full=1

I recently got a residue with 3 0s including the ending residue digit, perhaps the hidden Mersenne Prime has a similar form with some digit swapping since Mersenne Prime will have all 0s residue -
https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...exp_hi=&full=1

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by drkirkby

What evidence supports your belief that the next Mersenne Prime will be in the M168,xxx,xxx region?

Originally Posted by tuckerkao

When the result residue starts to show more 0s, a Mersenne Prime with a similar format maybe nearby, see attached screenshot -
https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...7309449&full=1

I recently got a residue with 3 0s including the ending residue digit, perhaps the hidden Mersenne Prime has a similar form with some digit swapping since Mersenne Prime will have all 0s residue -
https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...exp_hi=&full=1

The question was, "What evidence?" You have given no evidence. Maybe? Perhaps? Similar format? Hidden Mersenne prime? In the words of Joe Biden, "Aw, C'mon, man!"

The number of zeroes in the last 16 hex digits of a PRP test residue? As my mom liked to ask of obvious irrelevancies, "What's that got to do with the price of fish?"

[drkirkby]

Originally Posted by tuckerkao

When the result residue starts to show more 0s, a Mersenne Prime with a similar format maybe nearby, see attached screenshot -
https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...7309449&full=1

I recently got a residue with 3 0s including the ending residue digit, perhaps the hidden Mersenne Prime has a similar form with some digit swapping since Mersenne Prime will have all 0s residue -
https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...exp_hi=&full=1

Em,
I would ask what's the residual got to do with the price of cheese (my Dad used cheese, not fish).

Take a look at the exponent 24036581
https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...exp_hi=&full=1
The PRP test residue is 60526D1475EDEF82, which is nowhere near lots of zero. It has a single zero near the start, but that's all.

But 24036581 is a twin-prime, with its twin being just two higher at 24036583. There's nothing particularly remarkable about twin primes - many are known, and it's postulated that there are an infinite number of twin-primes. However, 24036583 is a Mersenne Prime.

https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...exp_hi=&full=1

Whilst my example does not disprove your theory that getting several zeros on the residual means you are near a prime, I think my example demonstrates that you can have a large residual, without any zeros anywhere near the end, yet be right next to a Mersenne Prime.

Dave

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by drkirkby

However, 24036583 is a Mersenne Prime.

https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...exp_hi=&full=1

No; 24036583 is an ordinary 8-decimal-digit prime, and not a Mersenne prime. M24036583 =2^24036583-1 is a Mersenne prime, of 7,235,733 decimal digits (Mp#41), so 24036583 also is the exponent of a known Mersenne prime.

The PRP test residue is 60526D1475EDEF82

To be unambiguous, that statement would need to indicate PRP test type. But the statement is false. The Mersenne in question, M24036581, has no PRP test results listed. It has two Lucas-Lehmer (seed 4) results ("LL"), from 2004 and 2010, whose res64s match. PRP testing did not get introduced into the GIMPS project until several years later, and began with nearly 50,000,000 higher exponent first tests.
https://www.mersenne.org/report_prp/...exfactor=1&B1= shows the earliest reported PRP result was type 4, by Mihai Preda on 2017-09-20 for M75782081.