Predict M52

[tuckerkao]

Originally Posted by ATH

[CODE]
862 days so far since M(82589933), the 4th largest gap, 35 days until it is the 3rd largest gap:

Another 3 weeks have passed by. This will be the 1st largest gap ever.

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by tuckerkao

Another 3 weeks have passed by. This will be the 1st largest gap ever.

We have a loooong way to go to say it will be the longest gap.

2013-01-25 - 2009-04-12 = 1384 days
1996-09-03 - 1994-01-04 = 973 <- sort of counts.
2015-09-17 - 2013-01-25 = 965
2001-11-14 - 1999-06-01 = 897 days

As of now we are 882 days

[ZFR]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

This is true. Those who desire to do so can fend for themselves.

M109287103
M109287119
M109287131

December 14th 2021

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by ZFR

M109287103

You have just been TF'ing those exponents. That makes me think you might be doing primality testing soon. Also that it might be off the books.
Rule 8 might apply(qv).

[tuckerkao]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

We have a loooong way to go to say it will be the longest gap.

2013-01-25 - 2009-04-12 = 1384 days
1996-09-03 - 1994-01-04 = 973 <- sort of counts.
2015-09-17 - 2013-01-25 = 965
2001-11-14 - 1999-06-01 = 897 days

As of now we are 882 days

502 days don't seem to be that of a long way. Consider many users are testing the exponents numerical order wise, so it's basically asking whether there's a hidden Mersenne Prime locating between M103,xxx,xxx and M123,xxx,xxx or not.

Also 1 expert, I don't remember the username, maybe Robert Gerbicz who has stated that only 6 to 14 hidden Mersenne Primes will be found between M100,xxx,xxx and M999,xxx,xxx

[slandrum]

Originally Posted by tuckerkao

502 days don't seem to be that of a long way.

It's a long ways from announcing prematurely that we're already in the longest gap. We're not yet 2/3 of the way to being the longest gap.

[Raydex]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

We have a loooong way to go to say it will be the longest gap.

2013-01-25 - 2009-04-12 = 1384 days
1996-09-03 - 1994-01-04 = 973 <- sort of counts.
2015-09-17 - 2013-01-25 = 965
2001-11-14 - 1999-06-01 = 897 days

As of now we are 882 days

2013/01/25 - 2009/06/04 = 1331 days
2016/01/07 - 2013/01/25 = 1077 days
1996/09/03 - 1994/01/04 = 973 days
2001/11/14 - 1999/06/01 = 897 days
2021/05/08 - 2018/12/07 = 883 days
2003/11/17 - 2001/11/14 = 733 days

Also, 102529169 (the current "tested at least once" threshold) is 24.1% higher than the last discovered exponent, 82589933. But we still have a long way to go before we can say that it's overdue, as the average ratio is 1.47576, see the following page for more info.

https://primes.utm.edu/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html

[firejuggler]

I would Like to replace 2 of my guess, as the date has passed
so that would be


M114034099 for 24 december 2022
M118034167 for 24 may 2023

[ZFR]

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

You have just been TF'ing those exponents. That makes me think you might be doing primality testing soon.

No, no. Factoring is all I do. I do a couple of PRPs, but most my work nowdays is just GPU factoring for GPU72.

[drkirkby]

I am 100% confident that M100, with the exponent 252097800623 is a Mersenne Prime, and will be discovered on 1st April. So that does not count as a guess.

My guesses, with very little confidence, are

1) 103720147 on 10th May
2) 110826173 on 10th May
3) 102529169 will be discovered on 12th May, although the server tells me the exponent expires in 7 days, and estimates it will take me 15 days to complete. Given I have not started it yet, that could end in tears.

https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...ll=1&ecmhist=1

Some poor ANONYMOUS person will be pretty peed off if it happens to be prime, as it was assigned to them on 6th February, but they were (are?) still computing a LL test which expired yesterday. That's 3 months of computing wasted - ouch.



Dave

[ATH]

Originally Posted by drkirkby

I am 100% confident that M100, with the exponent 252097800623 is a Mersenne Prime, and will be discovered on 1st April. So that does not count as a guess.

Maybe when we have created a Matrioshka brain .


If we consider this theory valid: https://primes.utm.edu/notes/faq/NextMersenne.html

then the exponents for consecutive Mersenne Primes are on average: p_n+1 = 1.47576 * p_n

If we start from M82,589,933 then the exponent for M100 would be around 1.58*10¹⁶, while your guess ~2.52*10¹¹ would be somewhere between M71 and M72.