COVID vaccination wavefront

[Batalov]

I like The Carnivore's computation.

It is like being in World War I (imagine yourself inside "1917") and being gassed.
What is a better strategy - A) take a wet cloth (actually a fairly decent cloth, 85%-protecting) over your face and run for shelter, or B) hold you breath while looking all around the bunker for the proper gas mask....

After all, no one is saying that with strategy A you will not also find the proper gas mask some time later.

[Uncwilly]

And it should be noted that the Triple J (Jansen/J&J) vaccine will likely be used in locations where it is hard to get the other ones. With the cold chain issues, the J³ vaccine might be great for say: the Amish, tribal areas, oil platforms, small military outposts, etc.
Get the most practical protection to people as fast as possible. Those that get the J³ will help protect those that get the Pfizer or Moderna and vice versa. Carnivore's numbers assume that the risk does not drop. As more and more get vaccinated, the risk for any given week to the whole population drops.

[Dr Sardonicus]

I have read that the J&J vaccine, despite its lower rate of prevention, is nonetheless effective in tamping down COVID infections to where they do not require hospitalization.

Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA) received the second dose of the Pfizer vaccine before January 20, and tested positive for COVID-19 on January 29. He went into quarantine. He wasn't showing symptoms. I don't know whether he was infectious, but obviously a positive test means you treat him like he is.

[The Carnivore]

Originally Posted by Batalov

I like The Carnivore's computation.

It is like being in World War I (imagine yourself inside "1917") and being gassed.
What is a better strategy - A) take a wet cloth (actually a fairly decent cloth, 85%-protecting) over your face and run for shelter, or B) hold you breath while looking all around the bunker for the proper gas mask....

The bunker isn't that big, hold your breath and find that gas mask!

There are times when running away from a bad situation is typically not in your best interest even though it may be your first instinct. Encounters with mountain lions and bears come to mind.

[Batalov]

But what it there is no black cat (the gas mask) only the black room (the bunker).

"Do or do not! There is no try."

Why don't I attach a cringeworthy picture to soil the previous sentence.
It is actually Elizabeth Holmes in the now-defunct Theranos lobby.. Someone wrote:
"I have hated that goddammed idiotic line from the first time I ever heard it. Anyone who ever quotes it is either absolutely brainless or a con artist. There are no other choices. Both types should be avoided for your own good."
Funny. maybe they worked there.
I do think there are other choices. Sometimes it simply sounds fun.

[retina]

Originally Posted by The Carnivore

Now here's the debate:

Why not both?

Take JJ tomorrow and PB and/or M in three weeks.

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by Batalov

"Do or do not! There is no try."

Reminded me of this old cartoon.

[Batalov]

I am happy to report that I helped 4 folks vac'd today.
Rady's hospital runs a family and friends program (they still have to be 65+ or caretakers) - but it was really helpful for them because most places run at a '2-3-4 hour time to invest' for vaccinating and they spent only 30 minutes (including 15 min obligatory wait after) - and were very happy to have it.
P.S. Interestingly, they got Pfizer!

[paulunderwood]

I have just had my first jab with Pfizer. Please put me down for a Feb vote.

[Chuck]

Second Moderna vaccination completed this morning at a large project run by a local hospital at the county fairgrounds (2,000 vaccinations).

[The Carnivore]

Originally Posted by firejuggler

France has decided to vaccinate eldery first, then medical personnel working with them. As a young (almost 40) and not at-risk person, the vaccine will be availlable to the general population in spring.

I don't necessarily agree with this, but there is a case to be made for getting rid of the tiers and just distributing vaccines based on a lottery system. All lives matter, and prioritizing one group over another sends some questionable messages.

If you vaccinate certain professions first, you're saying that some essential workers are worth more than other essential workers even if that's not reflected in their salary or experience. Why is a cop more valuable than a teacher, or vice-versa? Should a firefighter with 10 years of experience be vaccinated over a firefighter with 1 year of experience? Why aren't farmworkers and grocery store workers as valuable as health care workers? Society needs all of those people to run smoothly. If anything, farmworkers, slaughterhouse workers, and grocery store workers should be prioritized over health care workers since most people can survive longer without medical attention than they can without food.

If you vaccinate the elderly first, you're not extending their life expectancy and preventing the virus's spread as much as if you were to vaccinate the young and middle-aged first. If you prevent a 95 year old's death now, he/she will likely die of something else in the next 2-3 years. But if you prevent a 55 year old's death now, he/she is likely to live another 20-30 years, and if you prevent a 25 year old's death now, he/she is likely to live another 50+ years. And wouldn't a working-age adult be more likely to contract and spread the disease than a retiree who can stay at home almost all of the time? And if nursing home staff can get vaccinated, what about those who choose to live with and take care of their elderly parents instead of sending them to a nursing home?

If you vaccinate those with underlying health conditions first, you're saying that people who've likely made bad health decisions should be prioritized over those who've likely taken care of their health. Why should a smoker, a type 2 diabetic, or an obese person get priority over those who had a good diet, exercised, and didn't partake in those vices?

If you vaccinate those in certain living conditions first, you're saying that personal responsibility doesn't matter. Why should a prisoner have a greater priority than a law-abiding citizen who may live in an overcrowded apartment with multiple roommates? Why should a homeless person have a greater priority than someone who worked hard, lived frugally, and has a modest home?