Dow Jones Cashed in Today

[masser]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

a prediction as to the duration of the "Great-Depression-level plunge in US and global GDP."

Here's a crude prediction: The S&P 500 won't see 3386 again for another 5 years.

I only considered the 7 years it took for the index to return to it's tech bubble peak after that bust and the 6 years it took for the index to return to it's previous peak following the global financial crisis. My prediction is optimistic!

[R.D. Silverman]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

I failed to imagine that anyone would not understand I had in mind something rather less trivial and more specific: a prediction as to the duration of the "Great-Depression-level plunge in US and global GDP."

In one of Anatole France's tales, the entire history of humanity is summarized as "They were born, they suffered, they died!"

I fail to imagine that the readership herein are totally lacking in humor.

[PhilF]

Originally Posted by R.D. Silverman

I fail to imagine that the readership herein are totally lacking in humor.

Thank you! That's the biggest laugh I've had all day, lol.

[kladner]

Originally Posted by R.D. Silverman

I fail to imagine that the readership herein are totally lacking in humor.

Gallows humor is the order of the day. The intent was clear.

[xilman]

Originally Posted by kladner

Gallows humor is the order of the day. The intent was clear.

I sentence Dr Sardonicus to be hanged by the neck until he cheers up.

(With apologies to Monty Python)

[ewmayer]

RDS' Mr T quote was indeed both funny and apt!

OK, more substantively, here an article giving a sense of the economic-sector-shutdown aspects - basically, any business that relies on consumer discretionary purchases - a new Tesla Model 3 for the driveway, for example - or travel/tourism/dining-out/live-entertainment is facing complete or majority-level shutdown for the duration of the crisis:

https://www.investors.com/news/coron...mazon-dominos/

As far as duration, I honestly don't see any return to normal until an effective vaccine is developed. At least a full year, IMO.

Little things we ordinary-peeps can do include providing a minimal cash flow to our local business, e.g. ordering lots of takeout from our favorite restaurants (I don't like the other popular meme of "buying gift cards", since those assume a business will survive the crisis, and let's face it, no matter what we do, many won't). It's not about normal business levels, it's about managing cash flow to be able to survive a lengthy hiatus-of-normal.

[xilman]

Any comments about alleged insider trading?

Reports here are patchy and information is limited. The UK has other things on its mind at the moment.

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by xilman

Any comments about alleged insider trading?

Reports here are patchy and information is limited. The UK has other things on its mind at the moment.

Alleged insider trading by whom?

[Dr Sardonicus]

03/19/20 close 19,173.98 -913.21 (-4.55%)

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by xilman

Any comments about alleged insider trading?

Reports here are patchy and information is limited. The UK has other things on its mind at the moment.

A couple of US Senators (Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr, R-N.C. and Georgia Sen. Kelly Loeffler) dumped wads of stock just before it crashed. Loeffler, who is married to Jeffrey Sprecher, the chairman and CEO of Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange and her husband then bought up hundreds of thousands of dollars' worth of stock in real estate investment firm Blackstone, tech company Oracle and Citrix Systems.

A thought that occurred to me: What was the Trump Organization doing with its portfolio as Il Duce was trying to happy talk the Coronavirus out of existence?

I suppose it would be uncharitable to suggest that the happy talk was to keep the markets from tanking until they could sell out in good order...

[R.D. Silverman]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

Alleged insider trading by whom?

Two Republican Senators. (Names escape me).

They sold a lot of stock just before the crisis went public. Which is nothing, by itself.
However, they were on a committee that got a private govt. briefing about the virus
a short time before they sold. We do not know what was discussed in the briefing.