Manic of a panic is geopolitical

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

Covid-19 appears to have a *death* rate of over 2%

Over 6% of diagnosed cases for which outcome is known.
Fatalities worldwide 4720; total recovered 68324; CFR=4720/(4720+68324) = 0.0646 = 6.46% case fatality rate.
With an additional 128343-68324-4720 = 55299 cases known for which the outcomes of death or recovery have not yet been reached.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coron...-does-it-stand

[Xyzzy]

If you survive the virus does it grant you immunity against future infections?

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by Xyzzy

If you survive the virus does it grant you immunity against future infections?

My guess would be, "Yes -- in the short term, but only the short term."

I base this on the fact that the "common cold" is caused by coronaviruses. You might only get this year's version of the common cold once, then be immune. But by next year, the viruses have mutated enough that last year's antibodies won't protect you, and you get another cold.

[tServo]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

My guess would be, "Yes -- in the short term, but only the short term."

I base this on the fact that the "common cold" is caused by coronaviruses. You might only get this year's version of the common cold once, then be immune. But by next year, the viruses have mutated enough that last year's antibodies won't protect you, and you get another cold.

No, the common cold is caused by a Rhinovirus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus

[a1call]

Originally Posted by Xyzzy

If you survive the virus does it grant you immunity against future infections?

Normally yes, but there are reports that some people test positive for COVID-19 after recovery, ie two negative test. I believe that's the exception not the rule. There are also reports from China that a secondary infection is usually more severe.

[kladner]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

In 1936, the Chief of the LAPD tried to close California's border crossings (including with Oregon) to protect the state from immigrants afflicted with the disease of poverty. This came to be called the Bum Blockade.

Lots of folks back East, they say, is leavin' home every day
Beatin' the hot old dusty way to the California line
'Cross the desert sands they roll, gettin' out of that old dust bowl
They think they're goin' to a sugar bowl but here's what they find
Now the police at the port of entry say
"You're number fourteen thousand for today"

Oh, if you ain't got the do re mi folks you ain't got the do re mi
Why you better go back to beautiful Texas
Oklahoma, Kansas, Georgia, Tennessee

California is a garden of Eden, a paradise to live in or see
But believe it or not you won't find it so hot
If you ain't got the do re mi
-Woody Guthrie

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

In 1936, the Chief of the LAPD tried to close California's border crossings (including with Oregon) to protect the state from immigrants afflicted with the disease of poverty. This came to be called the Bum Blockade.

The LAPD also took people back to the California/Arizona border and dropped them off on the the other side of the line.

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by tServo

No, the common cold is caused by a Rhinovirus.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rhinovirus

It seems that both types of virus often cause colds.

The Johns Hopkins page on coronavirus says (my emphasis)

CLINICAL

Routine Coronavirus Infections

Disease spectrum

• A common cause of mild-to-moderate upper respiratory tract infection (URI) in humans. Some studies suggest it is a more common cause of URI infection than rhinovirus[11].

• An occasional cause of viral pneumonia.

• A cause of wheezing in persons with reactive airway disease.

• An occasional cause of gastroenteritis in babies.

Epidemiology

• Most commonly occurring in winter and early spring.

• Most people have anti-coronavirus antibodies, reflecting universal exposure, but reinfection appears common, suggestive that there are many circulating serotypes of the virus in the human population

• Incubation period ~3d.

• Shedding may occur longer or also occur in asymptomatic individuals.

Diagnosis

• Coronavirus infection usually not diagnosed specifically for routine infections causing GI or respiratory illness, therefore none of the below are routinely performed.

• RT-PCR or other molecular assays: most sensitive and specific diagnostic approach on respiratory specimens.

• Coronavirus HKU1, NL63, 229E and OC43 part of BioFire® FilmArray®, for example, FDA-approved.

• Serology (IFA, ELISA) with acute/convalescent samples is sensitive

• Immuno-electron microscopy (not commercially available)

• Viral culture (often unsuccessful from human samples as opposed to animals).

Coronavirus disease 2019–2020 (see COVID-19 module for details)

<snip>

[11] Davis BM, Foxman B, Monto AS, et al. Human coronaviruses and other respiratory infections in young adults on a university campus: Prevalence, symptoms, and shedding. Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2018. [PMID:29660826]

Comment: In this young adult population, 30% of viral URTIs had HCoV while rhinovirus was second at 7.6%.

[kriesel]

These are worldwide totals, combining figures from governments of assorted credibility levels.

5065 deaths total /(69623 recovered +5065 deaths)=.0678 case fatality rate = 6.78% of confirmed cases with an outcome determined
136390-69623-5065=61702 active cases where the outcome is yet to be determined
https://www.foxnews.com/world/chines...onavirus-drugs

Case fatality rate is up slightly from yesterday's 6.46% figure.

Dr. stating virus may be contained in May by warm humid weather, crossing fingers on both hands at 1:19 of video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=anQQkPpbNJI

[kladner]

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/0...o-it-now-.html

The powers that be in our 'western' societies have decided to do nothing significant against the onslaught the novel coronavirus SARS-Cov-2 is now causing.

There will not even be an attempt to do like China or South Korea which have thrown all resources at stopping the spread of the virus while it was still possible. The 'west' now seem to be beyond that point.

The Donald Trump administration has done its best to prevent an early detection of the outbreak in Washington State and likely also elsewhere:

As luck would have it, Dr. Chu had a way to monitor the region. For months, as part of a research project into the flu, she and a team of researchers had been collecting nasal swabs from residents experiencing symptoms throughout the Puget Sound region.

To repurpose the tests for monitoring the coronavirus, they would need the support of state and federal officials. But nearly everywhere Dr. Chu turned, officials repeatedly rejected the idea, interviews and emails show, even as weeks crawled by and outbreaks emerged in countries outside of China, where the infection began.

By Feb. 25, Dr. Chu and her colleagues could not bear to wait any longer. They began performing coronavirus tests, without government approval.

What came back confirmed their worst fear. They quickly had a positive test from a local teenager with no recent travel history. The coronavirus had already established itself on American soil without anybody realizing it.

The CDC and the FDA would not have that:

The message from the federal government was blunt. “What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu,” Dr. Lindquist [the state epidemiologist in Washington] remembered. “Stop testing.”

Re the attached chart:

Pueyo:

This is one of the most important charts. It shows in orange histograms the daily official number of cases in the Hubei province: How many people were diagnosed that day.
The grey histograms show the true daily coronavirus cases. Crucially, these weren’t know at the time. We can only figure them out looking backwards.
What this means is that the orange histograms show you what authorities knew, and the grey ones what was really happening.
On January 21st, the number of new diagnosed cases (orange) is exploding: there are around 100 new cases. In reality, there were 1,500 new cases that day, growing exponentially. But the authorities didn’t know that. What they knew was that suddenly there were 100 new cases of this new illness.
Two days later, authorities shut down Wuhan. At that point, the number of diagnosed daily new cases was ~400. Note that number: they made a decision to close the city with just 400 new cases in a day. In reality, there were 2,500 new cases that day, but they didn’t know that.

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by kladner

https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/0...o-it-now-.html
Re the attached chart:

Something missing from the chart, is Jan 1 and Jan3, Wuhan police threaten several local doctors with prosecution unless they agree to "stop spreading false rumors" that there's a new virus in town that's dangerous. see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang

During errands yesterday, I noted that it seemed to be business as usual here in my part of the US midwest, with normal levels of traffic and shopping. The grocery store was nearly empty shelves in places, particularly toilet paper was below 10% ocupancy of shelf space.