Manic of a panic is geopolitical

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

If reports from China are to be believed, new cases of COVID-19 there have fallen off dramatically.

See link in post #91 for a contraian view re. your "If".

Latest - Italy has extended quarantine to entire country. In my neck of the woods, Santa Clara county (Silicon Valley) public health director has banned all public gatherings of over 1000 people, including sporting events such as San Jose Sharks hockey games in downtown San Jose. SiVal has a local cluster of cases, likely because of the many, many techies routinely shuttling between there and tech hubs in E Asia.

And a tragicomic glimpse of life in Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak:

The Word from Wuhan | LRB

Schools are suspended until further notice. With many workplaces also shut, notoriously absent Chinese fathers have been forced to stay home and entertain their children. Video clips of life under quarantine are trending on TikTok. Children were presumably glad to be off school – until, that is, an app called DingTalk was introduced. Students are meant to sign in and join their class for online lessons; teachers use the app to set homework. Somehow the little brats worked out that if enough users gave the app a one-star review it would get booted off the App Store. Tens of thousands of reviews flooded in, and DingTalk’s rating plummeted overnight from 4.9 to 1.4.

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

See link in post #91 for a contraian view re. your "If".
<snip>

I read it. Reports of business activity seem to be fantasy. Nothing, though, about COVID-19 case reporting being phonied up.

BTW the NO₂ monitoring probably indicates the true state of affairs WRT manufacturing and motor vehicle traffic in the area.

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

I read it. Reports of business activity seem to be fantasy. Nothing, though, about COVID-19 case reporting being phonied up.

BTW the NO₂ monitoring probably indicates the true state of affairs WRT manufacturing and motor vehicle traffic in the area.

If the authorities are willing to go to the lengths described in the article to present a Potemkin business-recovery image, why would they shy away from giving official case numbers a similar treatment? And the article specifically describes mass fakery going on w.r.to manufacturing activity:

"Beijing had started checking Zhejiang businesses' electricity consumption levels, so district officials ordered the companies to start leaving their lights and machinery on all day to drive the numbers up, one civil servant said. Businesses have reportedly falsified staff attendance logs as well."

I wouldn't put it past them to pay drivers to run otherwise-empty cars and buses around the cities all day long, either - one of the economic knock-on effects of the pandemic is a glut in petroleum products and crashing fuel prices, so such fakery is cheaper than it otherwise would be.

I would dearly love to believe the recovery-connoting numbers, but the long history of Chinese officialdom publishing fake economic and other demographic numbers does not give me confidence in this regard.

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

If the authorities are willing to go to the lengths described in the article to present a Potemkin business-recovery image, why would they shy away from giving official case numbers a similar treatment?

If you've got any evidence that they're actually doing this, by all means trot it out. However, they didn't seem to have any problem with reporting large numbers of new cases until fairly recently. I'm not sure how to explain why they would suddenly change policy in this regard. I suppose it's possible they were running out of hospital beds. Perhaps that could be checked.

But if you assume, for the sake of discussion, that they are grossly under-reporting new cases, this would have consequences. There would likely be a lot of sick people who need treatment but weren't being admitted to hospitals. What would be happening to them? If they simply vanished, there'd be a lot of friends and relatives asking questions.

Of course I'm generally skeptical about what Chinese officialdom says, but so far I've seen no indication that they've done an about-face and are now studiously ignoring new cases of COVID-19. I suppose one way to do that would be, just make and distribute a whole lot of dummy test kits. That would be one way to make sure a lot of patients tested negative!

I also find it hard to believe that there have only been a few cases in Russia, and none at all in DPRK.

I wouldn't put it past them to pay drivers to run otherwise-empty cars and buses around the cities all day long, either - one of the economic knock-on effects of the pandemic is a glut in petroleum products and crashing fuel prices, so such fakery is cheaper than it otherwise would be.

I like your theory about driving empty buses and cars around. There's another practical reason for doing this: Diesel fuel and gasoline don't keep in storage indefinitely, especially if storage conditions aren't ideal.

Again, the NO₂ monitoring could be probative.

[Dr Sardonicus]

WHO declares that virus crisis is now a pandemic

GENEVA (AP) — Expressing alarm both about mounting infections and inadequate government responses, the World Health Organization declared Wednesday that the global coronavirus crisis is now a pandemic but added that it’s not too late for countries to act.

By reversing course and using the charged word "pandemic" that it previously shied away from, the U.N. health agency sought to shock lethargic countries into pulling out all the stops.

"We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action. We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear," said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO chief.

"All countries can still change the course of this pandemic. If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace and mobilize their people in the response," he said. "We are deeply concerned by the alarming levels of spread and severity and by the alarming levels of inaction."

[Dr Sardonicus]

Let us not forget the Admin's prescience WRT the COVID-19 pandemic: Top White House official in charge of pandemic response exits abruptly

By
Lena H. Sun

May 10, 2018 at 4:32 PM EDT

The top White House official responsible for leading the U.S. response in the event of a deadly pandemic has left the administration, and the global health security team he oversaw has been disbanded under a reorganization by national security adviser John Bolton.

The abrupt departure of Rear Adm. Timothy Ziemer from the National Security Council means no senior administration official is now focused solely on global health security. Ziemer's departure, along with the breakup of his team, comes at a time when many experts say the country is already underprepared for the increasing risks of a pandemic or bioterrorism attack.

Ziemer's last day was Tuesday, the same day a new Ebola outbreak was declared in Congo. He is not being replaced.

Pandemic preparedness and global health security are issues that require government-wide responses, experts say, as well as the leadership of a high-ranking official within the White House who is assigned only this role.

"Health security is very fragmented, with many different agencies," said J. Stephen Morrison, senior vice president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "It means coordination and direction from the White House is terribly important."

The personnel changes, which Morrison and others characterize as a downgrading of global health security, are part of Bolton's previously announced plans to streamline the NSC. Two members of Ziemer's team have been merged into a unit in charge of weapons of mass destruction, and another official's position is now part of a unit responsible for international organizations. White House homeland security adviser Tom Bossert, who had called for a comprehensive biodefense strategy against pandemics and biological attacks, is out completely. He left the day after Bolton took over last month.

NSC spokesman Robert Palladino said Wednesday the administration "remains committed to global health, global health security and biodefense, and will continue to address these issues with the same resolve under the new structure."

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

WHO declares that virus crisis is now a pandemic

Looks like they decided to un-retire the term ... love the "charged" bit, yes, we really want to use non-alarming anodyne words to describe unfolding global catastrophes. Otherwise people might actually become sufficiantly alarmed so as to take matters seriously, rather than getting out there and shopping and dining and boosting GDP.

Re. disinfecting hard surfaces – I have found a simple solution of 20:1-diluted bleach soaked into a folded-up paper towel square to work well – the bleachy smell is a bit annoying but at that dilution it’s tolerable and doesn’t irritate my skin, either. Just finished wiping down the cases and keyboards of my old Mac Classic – it hasn’t looked so white since I bought it – and my 15-y.o. candybar cellphone. A few minutes later, can’t even smell it on my hands anymore. Also great for countertops, doorknobs, etc, and very cheap. That of course assumes one has bleach in the house, or one’s local store still has some – but even a small bottle goes a long way, used thusly.

Had annual checkup with my doctor at the local community clinic yesterday afternoon – very blue-collar clientele, mostly Latino|a, but well-funded, well-run and highly competent staff – they are clearly acutely attuned to the danger but apparently no suspect cases yet. I wished them all well, “y’all are on the front lines of this”-style … this could simply be the calm before the storm. (I dearly hope not.)

Edit: A few updates from around the world:

o Coronavirus Update: 70% Of Germany Could Get Infected By COVID-19, Merkel Says | IB Times -- neighboring Austria going into countrywide lockdown, including closing its border with hard-hit Italy, but I expect there was already a significant amount of cross-border transmission, especially as the border is with northern Italy, where the epidemic first started spreading in that country. I recall watching on TV a recent X-C ski competition in the dual-named Antholz/Anterselva, dual-named because it's in the former Austrian province of South Tyrol, ceded to Italy after WW1 but still more German-Tyrolean than Italian. IOW, close cross-border cultural and business ties in that area. And of course, EU-style cross-border freedom of movement, for both people and the microbes they harbor.

o South Korea reported 242 new cases of the new coronavirus on Wednesday, up from 131 new cases a day earlier | Korea Times -- SK had seemed to be makig good progress recently, new daily cases dropping steadily. Most worrisomely about today's spike is a significant cluster of newly diagnosed cases in the capital, Seoul.

[CRGreathouse]

Originally Posted by CRGreathouse

So the premise is that there's a conspiracy of major bondholders to pressure the WHO and/or its members to avoid labeling this outbreak a pandemic. Evidence for this might include kompromat used on WHO members or evidence of bondholders conspiring. Evidence suggesting against this hypothesis might include the WHO labeling the outbreak a pandemic (not impossible under the scenario of course, but presumably less likely).

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

WHO declares that virus crisis is now a pandemic

As expected.

[masser]

Originally Posted by CRGreathouse

As expected.

Why today and not yesterday? Why not a week ago?

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by masser

Why today and not yesterday? Why not a week ago?

Sounds like they were waiting and hoping for our Charlatan-in-Chief to get off the dime, but finally ran out of patience.

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by Dr Sardonicus

Sounds like they were waiting and hoping for our Charlatan-in-Chief to get off the dime, but finally ran out of patience.

Since when is POTUS tasked with such global-health pronouncements? I know you can't pass up any chance to bash Trump, but this is just silly. Trump did just ban all airline travel between US and Europe, which is both huge and (IMO) now warranted - my only question there is, what about travel between US and Asia? Is that already mostly shut down due to previous such moves?

@CharlesG: You seem to think the WHO pronouncement somehow settles the mini-debate, but it's clear events finally got so ridculously, obviously pandemic level as to force their hand. Shouldn't they be trying to get out ahead of events, based on the notion of "erring on the side of caution" when the potential stakes are this high? Their belated move today fits the saying "dashing out to the front of a riot and calling it a parade."