Manic of a panic is geopolitical

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by CRGreathouse

So the premise is that there's a conspiracy of major bondholders to pressure the WHO and/or its members to avoid labeling this outbreak a pandemic. Evidence for this might include kompromat used on WHO members or evidence of bondholders conspiring. Evidence suggesting against this hypothesis might include the WHO labeling the outbreak a pandemic (not impossible under the scenario of course, but presumably less likely).

You used the word 'conspiracy' - I did not. I merely allowed for the possibility that one or more parties, not necessarily acting in concert, with a financial interest in having WHO pronouce, or not pronounce, 'pandemic', might be pressuring the agency to serve their interests.

[ewmayer]

Coronavirus: Kids About as Likely as Adults to Become Infected; What Happens When School Closures Become Widespread? | naked capitalism

[ewmayer]

Sorry to again be the bearer of bad tidings, but w.r.to Covid-19, "all the news that is credible is not good, and all the news that is good is not credible":

o China's coronavirus recovery is 'all fake,' whistleblowers and residents claim | The Week

China's claims of how it's handling coronavirus recovery should be taken with more than a few grains of salt.

Even before COVID-19 became a global crisis, Chinese leaders had been criticized for their handling of the situation and lack of transparency about the disease's progression. Things now look like they're on the upswing, and businesses even appear to be headed back to work — but whistleblowers and local officials tell Caixin that's just a carefully crafted ruse.

Beijing has spent much of the outbreak pushing districts to carry on business as usual, with some local governments subsidizing electricity costs and even installing mandatory productivity quotas. Zhejiang, a province east of the epicenter city of Wuhan, claimed as of Feb. 24 it had restored 98.6 percent of its pre-coronavirus work capacity.

But civil servants tell Caixin that businesses are actually faking these numbers. Beijing had started checking Zhejiang businesses' electricity consumption levels, so district officials ordered the companies to start leaving their lights and machinery on all day to drive the numbers up, one civil servant said. Businesses have reportedly falsified staff attendance logs as well — they "would rather waste a small amount of money on power than irritate local officials," Caixin writes.

In Wuhan, officials have tried to make it appear that recovery efforts are going smoothly. But when "central leaders" personally survey disinfecting regimens and food delivery, local officials "make a special effort" for them and them alone, one resident told Caixin. And in a video circulating on social media, residents can be seen shouting at visiting leaders from the apartments where they're being quarantined — "Fake, it's all fake." Read more at Caixin.

o One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they’re preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds | Business Insider

Related, on NC's daily Links page today:

This tweetstorm (hat tip guurst) is today’s must read. Unless infection rates slow down due to the weather getting warm and/or a LOT of social distancing, the US will be out of hospital beds and masks in May. The big qualifier is this won’t be evenly distributed. Cities where the disease hits first will have much faster spread, while small cities in states that haven’t had any cases yet will reach the crunch point a bit later. Oh, and since non-seniors who have health insurance are almost entirely in HMOs and PPOs, it’s not as if they have much in the way of choices as to where they go:

I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n

— Liz Specht (@LizSpecht) March 7, 2020

[tServo]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

Sorry to again be the bearer of bad tidings, but w.r.to Covid-19, "all the news that is credible is not good, and all the news that is good is not credible":

o China's coronavirus recovery is 'all fake,' whistleblowers and residents claim | The Week


o One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they’re preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds | Business Insider

Related, on NC's daily Links page today:

Liz Specht's predictions are chilling.

Also on NC's homepage is an article about how Taiwan is handling Covid and keeping it relatively under control ( only 45 cases so far ) despite a dense population on an island just a few miles from mainland China. The contrast to the U.S. is fascinating and depressing.

[Dr Sardonicus]

Also making for sobering reading, What US Hospitals Should Do Now to Prepare for a COVID-19 Pandemic. It recommends using the planning assumptions for a flu pandemic.

The disparity between what is available, and what might be needed, is distressing.

[Xyzzy]

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...e-coronavirus/

[ewmayer]

Testimony of a surgeon working in Bergamo, in the heart of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak | Reddit

«In one of the non-stop e-mails that I receive from my hospital administration on a more than daily basis, there was a paragraph on "how to be responsible on social media", with some recommendations that we all can agree on. After thinking for a long time if and what to write about what's happening here, I felt that silence was not responsible. I will therefore try to convey to lay-people, those who are more distant from our reality, what we are experiencing in Bergamo during these Covid-19 pandemic days. I understand the need not to panic, but when the message of the danger of what is happening is not out, and I still see people ignoring the recommendations and people who gather together complaining that they cannot go to the gym or play soccer tournaments, I shiver. I also understand the economic damage and I am also worried about that. After this epidemic, it will be hard to start over.

Still, beside the fact that we are also devastating our national health system from an economic point of view, I want to point out that the public health damage that is going to invest the country is more important and I find it nothing short of "chilling" that new quarantine areas requested by the Region has not yet been established for the municipalities of Alzano Lombardo and Nembro (I would like to clarify that this is purely personal opinion). I myself looked with some amazement at the reorganization of the entire hospital in the previous week, when our current enemy was still in the shadows: the wards slowly "emptied", elective activities interrupted, intensive care unit freed to create as many beds as possible. Containers arriving in front of the emergency room to create diversified routes and avoid infections. All this rapid transformation brought in the hallways of the hospital an atmosphere of surreal silence and emptiness that we did not understand, waiting for a war that had yet to begin and that many (including me) were not so sure would never come with such ferocity (I open a parenthesis: all this was done in the shadows, and without publicity, while several newspapers had the courage to say that private health care was not doing anything).

I still remember my night shift a week ago spent without any rest, waiting for a call from the microbiology department. I was waiting for the results of a swab taken from the first suspect case in our hospital, thinking about what consequences it would have for us and the hospital. If I think about it, my agitation for one possible case seems almost ridiculous and unjustified, now that I have seen what is happening. Well, the situation is now nothing short of dramatic. No other words come to mind. The war has literally exploded and battles are uninterrupted day and night. One after the other, these unfortunate people come to the emergency room. They have far from the complications of a flu. Let's stop saying it's a bad flu. In my two years working in Bergamo, I have learned that the people here do not come to the emergency room for no reason. They did well this time too. They followed all the recommendations given: a week or ten days at home with a fever without going out to prevent contagion, but now they can't take it anymore. They don't breathe enough, they need oxygen. Drug therapies for this virus are few...

[Italian Original: Coronavirus a Bergamo, medico Humanitas su Facebook: «Situazione drammatica, altro che normale influenza».]

[retina]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

Testimony of a surgeon working in Bergamo, in the heart of Italy’s coronavirus outbreak | Reddit

[Italian Original: Coronavirus a Bergamo, medico Humanitas su Facebook: «Situazione drammatica, altro che normale influenza».]

When all you see is the bad stuff then everything looks bad.

[ewmayer]

Originally Posted by retina

When all you see is the bad stuff then everything looks bad.

And the "good stuff" amidst what is happening in multiple countries and likely coming soon in the US as well, is what - stock markets offering discounts on their wares?

[PhilF]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

And the "good stuff" amidst what is happening in multiple countries and likely coming soon in the US as well, is what - stock markets offering discounts on their wares?

Well, not to mention lower gas prices... :)

[Dr Sardonicus]

Originally Posted by ewmayer

And the "good stuff" amidst what is happening in multiple countries and likely coming soon in the US as well, is what - stock markets offering discounts on their wares?

If reports from China are to be believed, new cases of COVID-19 there have fallen off dramatically.

If the calendar is to be believed, Spring is almost here. That may actually be relevant to the thread topic. It is possible that warmer weather could inhibit the spread of the virus.

Originally Posted by PhilF

Well, not to mention lower gas prices... :)

Yes, that too. At least in the short term.

EDIT: Yes, the Dow had a bit of a rough day: Today's close 23,851.02 -2,013.76 (-7.79%)

Luckily, the R's have a sure cure for COVID-19. A tax cut for wealthy investors!