Unlucky in l̶o̶v̶e̶ factoring?

mrh · 2019-12-13, 23:38

Since 4-Oct I've completed 195 TF, P1 and ECM runs, totaling over 5,600 ghz-days, with out finding a factor. I'm glad I don't wager in Vegas...

petrw1 · 2019-12-13, 23:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrh

Since 4-Oct I've completed 195 TF, P1 and ECM runs, totaling over 5,600 ghz-days, with out finding a factor. I'm glad I don't wager in Vegas...

Hang in there.
My record (and I'm sure I'm not first) is over 500 TF without a factor.
However my lifetime average is about 1/100.

Gordon · 2019-12-14, 12:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrh

Since 4-Oct I've completed 195 TF, P1 and ECM runs, totaling over 5,600 ghz-days, with out finding a factor. I'm glad I don't wager in Vegas...

In what exponent range?

mrh · 2019-12-14, 19:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gordon

In what exponent range?

All over, but mostly from M100m - M200m. I find numbers I like, do some factoring, then a PRP test. Like with 200002007 for example.

PhilF · 2019-12-14, 20:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by mrh

Since 4-Oct I've completed 195 TF, P1 and ECM runs, totaling over 5,600 ghz-days, with out finding a factor. I'm glad I don't wager in Vegas...

All of your factoring luck got sucked up and funneled into your PRP luck! :)

https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...lo=3467&full=1

mrh · 2019-12-15, 00:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by PhilF

All of your factoring luck got sucked up and funneled into your PRP luck! :)

https://www.mersenne.org/report_expo...lo=3467&full=1

True, I shouldn't complain :)

mrh · 2019-12-17, 13:48

Broke the streak: 133331333 finally :) And such a good looking number, I thought for sure it would be the one...

storm5510 · 2019-12-17, 16:28

The truth about ECM's. Lifetime, I have found 20 factors in 15,140 attempts. This is 0.13%.

petrw1 · 2019-12-17, 17:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by storm5510

The truth about ECM's. Lifetime, I have found 20 factors in 15,140 attempts. This is 0.13%.

IMHO … When it comes to ECM a more accurate measurement is factors per curve.

When I run ECM I will often edit the worktodo.txt and increase the curves to at least 10; sometimes 50 or more.

With that I have an almost 1% success rate.

storm5510 · 2019-12-17, 19:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by petrw1

IMHO...With that I have an almost 1% success rate.

For many years, I used what the server gave me. I really did not study the worktodo format until a few years ago. With this in mind, the vast majority of what I ran was three curves. I still do this with my Linux system. I allow mprime to run them as presented. I have ran higher curve counts on my Windows system. Most of these were preps for GMP-ECM. I stopped doing this. GMP-ECM's results format is totally not compatible with Primenet.

petrw1 · 2019-12-17, 22:52

https://www.mersenne.ca/status/tf/0/365/4/90000
1 full year of progress.

900.0 has over 2,000 exponents TF'd from 71 to 80 with 1 factor reported.
We would expect about 200.

900.1 has over 2,000 exponents TF'd from 71 to 80 or 82 with 7 factors reported.
We would expect over 200.

I don't believe the factors were simply reported prior to 1 year ago because the remaining unfactored count is much too high.

2019-12-13, 23:38	#1
mrh "mrh" Oct 2018 Temecula, ca 2⁴·3² Posts	Unlucky in l̶o̶v̶e̶ factoring? Since 4-Oct I've completed 195 TF, P1 and ECM runs, totaling over 5,600 ghz-days, with out finding a factor. I'm glad I don't wager in Vegas...

2019-12-17, 22:52	#11
petrw1 1976 Toyota Corona years forever! "Wayne" Nov 2006 Saskatchewan, Canada 3×5²×71 Posts	This is beyond believable bad luck https://www.mersenne.ca/status/tf/0/365/4/90000 1 full year of progress. 900.0 has over 2,000 exponents TF'd from 71 to 80 with 1 factor reported. We would expect about 200. 900.1 has over 2,000 exponents TF'd from 71 to 80 or 82 with 7 factors reported. We would expect over 200. I don't believe the factors were simply reported prior to 1 year ago because the remaining unfactored count is much too high.

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2019-12-17, 13:48	#7
mrh "mrh" Oct 2018 Temecula, ca 2⁴×3² Posts	Broke the streak: 133331333 finally :) And such a good looking number, I thought for sure it would be the one...

2019-12-17, 16:28	#8
storm5510 Random Account Aug 2009 Not U. + S.A. 3×953 Posts	The truth about ECM's. Lifetime, I have found 20 factors in 15,140 attempts. This is 0.13%.