Predict M52 - Page 3

Neutron3529 · 2018-12-23, 13:00

85615531 Oct. 2019
87946949 Oct. 2019
92074531 Oct. 2019
I guess the next prime is close to the current M51 we found
I tried 3 different distance... and don't know whether it would work

LaurV · 2018-12-27, 02:09

What do we get if we guess right?

christian_ · 2018-12-27, 03:10

93456799 - 7 April 2019
106456799 - 22 January 2020
146456881 - 3 February 2022

Spherical Cow · 2018-12-27, 18:24

It can't be this close to M51, but that's what I said about the last two primes. I'll go with 97211981, October 30, 2019.

ixfd64 · 2018-12-27, 18:38

M96052357 on May 21, 2021
M110691683 on January 3, 2025
M121596589 on October 8, 2027

Uncwilly · 2018-12-27, 18:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by Neutron3529

85615531 Oct. 2019
87946949 Oct. 2019
92074531 Oct. 2019

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

THE RULES OF THE GAME:

.
.
You can not guess a number (or date) that has already been guessed. If you do guess a number or date that has already been submitted, this will count against you and impose a wait as in rule 6.

Oct 1 is used by your first guess. Therefore the dates for your 2nd and 3rd guesses are being ignored. You must wait 60 days before guessing anymore dates. At that time you may only guess the date, you can't update the number.

patrik · 2018-12-28, 12:18

91502209 on December 4, 2020

Uncwilly · 2018-12-28, 15:30

The advantages of guessing late:

84000017 on Feb 28, 2019
89999999 on Apr 15, 2020
95000167 on Sept 24, 2021

firejuggler · 2019-01-02, 22:00

lets say M
M85,020,577 on 1 january 2020
M87,522,767 on 3 january 2021
M90,098,611 on 1 february 2022

Uncwilly · 2019-01-04, 15:37

A couple of nice graphs of the guesses:
The first one is a scatter plot. The 2 outer lines were upper and lower bounds (until firejuggler came in and guessed all 3 above the upper bound.) The box represents more than half of the guesses. And I ignored the most pessimistic guesses for this.

In the second I re-assigned the dates and guesses, such that the lowest guess was paired with the earliest date. Graphed with a nice trendline for your pleasure.

GP2 · 2019-01-04, 16:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncwilly

A couple of nice graphs of the guesses:

So, 60% of the guesses are below 100M. And only one (!) guess is solidly above the expected median line of 1.47576 × the previous prime exponent = 121.88M, with three in the borderline area.

I'll revive my previous guess of 282,362,693 on March 3, 2025. And yes, it's another p=1 (mod 4).

2019-01-02, 22:00	#31
firejuggler "Vincent" Apr 2010 Over the rainbow 5550₈ Posts	lets say M M85,020,577 on 1 january 2020 M87,522,767 on 3 january 2021 M90,098,611 on 1 february 2022 Last fiddled with by firejuggler on 2019-01-02 at 22:05

2019-01-04, 15:37	#32
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 11067₁₀ Posts	A couple of nice graphs of the guesses: The first one is a scatter plot. The 2 outer lines were upper and lower bounds (until firejuggler came in and guessed all 3 above the upper bound.) The box represents more than half of the guesses. And I ignored the most pessimistic guesses for this. In the second I re-assigned the dates and guesses, such that the lowest guess was paired with the earliest date. Graphed with a nice trendline for your pleasure. Attached Thumbnails

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2018-12-23, 13:00	#23
Neutron3529 Dec 2018 China 43 Posts	85615531 Oct. 2019 87946949 Oct. 2019 92074531 Oct. 2019 I guess the next prime is close to the current M51 we found I tried 3 different distance... and don't know whether it would work

2018-12-27, 02:09	#24
LaurV Romulan Interpreter "name field" Jun 2011 Thailand 41×251 Posts	What do we get if we guess right?

2018-12-27, 03:10	#25
christian_ Jan 2016 Mighty Black Stump 17 Posts	93456799 - 7 April 2019 106456799 - 22 January 2020 146456881 - 3 February 2022

2018-12-27, 18:24	#26
Spherical Cow Nov 2004 2²·3³·5 Posts	It can't be this close to M51, but that's what I said about the last two primes. I'll go with 97211981, October 30, 2019.

2018-12-27, 18:38	#27
ixfd64 Bemusing Prompter "Danny" Dec 2002 California 2³×313 Posts	M96052357 on May 21, 2021 M110691683 on January 3, 2025 M121596589 on October 8, 2027

2018-12-28, 12:18	#29
patrik "Patrik Johansson" Aug 2002 Uppsala, Sweden 425₁₀ Posts	91502209 on December 4, 2020

2018-12-28, 15:30	#30
Uncwilly 6809 > 6502 """"""""""""""""""" Aug 2003 101×103 Posts 10101100111011₂ Posts	The advantages of guessing late: 84000017 on Feb 28, 2019 89999999 on Apr 15, 2020 95000167 on Sept 24, 2021