Predict "M51"

[masser]

117003179

November 24, 2022

[kriesel]

b) CUDALucas says M( 113977277 )C, 0x8ddde80f...

[GP2]

Originally Posted by petrw1

I actually dreamed last night that there was a Mersenne prime in the 78M range.

My dream suggested it ended in 123 as in 78,xxx,123.

But then only in DisneyLand to dreams come true.

For some reason, I reread this old post from January.

There are 131 exponents that fit this pattern.

90 have known factors

35 have been tested once
6 have been verified composite

78074123
78077123
78100123
78104123 (verified)
78107123
78133123
78142123
78163123
78202123
78211123
78247123
78251123
78293123
78298123 (verified)
78302123
78329123
78346123
78367123
78385123
78442123
78449123
78457123 (original test bad, triple-checked and verified)
78490123
78574123 (verified)
78583123
78596123
78625123
78631123
78637123
78646123
78673123
78680123
78686123
78706123
78788123
78811123
78826123
78935123
78944123
78974123
78976123 (verified)

[Prime95]

Submissions closed. I was not the winner.

[Brian-E]

Originally Posted by Prime95

Submissions closed. I was not the winner.

Clearly I wasn't either. Unless the aliens have landed?

[GP2]

Originally Posted by Prime95

Submissions closed. I was not the winner.

Hmmmmm

Never mind, I read the new threads in the wrong order...

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by lavalamp

I'll change my guess to 92304749, same date.

Did you not see that someone already had guessed that?

[kriesel]

Originally Posted by kriesel

Ok, just for fun:

    Ballpark    Basis of ballpark                        Guess exp        Date guess                
51a    80,381,917    ratio of previous two, go up to the next unassigned/expired    80382067         Jun 14, 2018    Flag Day in the US            
51b    113,977,250    Approx expected ratio 1.47576*p50?                113977277         Aug 26, 2022    Assuming 8 million/year first test range progress        
51c    376,059,344    A long stride, 521/107*p50?                         376059389         Nov 30, 2052    "

Not only 0 for 3, none even close. (If close is up to a million off in exponent value.)

[masser]

Uncwilly,

Time to announce the winners? They appear to be axn (date: Nov. 15 2018) and moebius (value: 83xxxxxx). Congrats, you lucky predictors!

[Uncwilly]

Originally Posted by masser

Uncwilly,

Time to announce the winners?

Yes, real life had me AFT for a few hours after the announcement.

axn was 22 days off. bgbeuning was 25 days off. That is some fine guessing!

moebius was only 428180 off the mark. Again some very fine guessing.


Onward and upward: M52 guessing thread

[Uncwilly]

Unsticking this thread.