When will GIMPS's first prime... - Page 5

Mr. P-1 · 2011-09-24, 16:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by davieddy

I would have said a "bug" of some type would invariably describe such an occurence.

The alternative to "bug" is "fraud".

davieddy · 2011-09-24, 18:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. P-1

The alternative to "bug" is "fraud".

Yep. But particularly dumb fraud, since the number is going to get
checked immediately.
Edit:
Sorry, I was thinking of this new "success"!

axn · 2012-10-25, 05:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dubslow

It's now at 301, at 27pos/~50days ~ .5 pos/day --> ~25 years.

400 days later, it has dropped another 240 positions. At that rate, it'll take just over 20 years.

But...

The PPS effort has passed 1M. It should overtake 1.4M in about two years, and within another year, GIMPS1 should fall off the list completely. So, before end of 2015 (pessimistically).

science_man_88 · 2013-02-01, 01:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by axn

400 days later, it has dropped another 240 positions. At that rate, it'll take just over 20 years.

But...

The PPS effort has passed 1M. It should overtake 1.4M in about two years, and within another year, GIMPS1 should fall off the list completely. So, before end of 2015 (pessimistically).

I just looked at it and using wolfram I get 4809 days or until

april 2, 2026

or about 13-14 years away

science_man_88 · 2013-02-01, 02:02

oh and that's using the average since dubslows prediction, it's averaged over 2 a day since your prediction apparently, which cuts it to october 29-30, 2018 supposedly.

axn · 2014-07-04, 05:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by axn

400 days later, it has dropped another 240 positions. At that rate, it'll take just over 20 years.

But...

The PPS effort has passed 1M. It should overtake 1.4M in about two years, and within another year, GIMPS1 should fall off the list completely. So, before end of 2015 (pessimistically).

Currently G1 is at 1588. So dropping about 1.7 positions per day since my last update.

Sadly, PrimeGrid PPS probably won't make it past 1.4M by end of the year. I'll still stick with end of 2015, though.

TheMawn · 2014-07-04, 16:50

Was G1 the largest known Prime at the time? (EDIT: Why so it was! Very interesting.)

I think an interesting spin-off of the original topic would be "When will the Top-10 not be all Mersenne Primes?" and more interesting yet, "When will the largest known prime not be a Mersenne Prime?"

ET_ · 2014-07-09, 16:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheMawn

I think an interesting spin-off of the original topic would be "When will the Top-10 not be all Mersenne Primes?" and more interesting yet, "When will the largest known prime not be a Mersenne Prime?"

I'm working on this...

Luigi

axn · 2016-03-12, 07:19

Primegrid's PPSE has now crossed G1. From now onward, the drop should accelerate. Currently @ 2250, so probably another year.

mart_r · 2017-08-22, 21:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bottom Quark

...drop off the top 5000 list?

2^1398269-1 was discovered in 1996, and it's currently the 170th largest known prime: http://primes.utm.edu/primes/lists/all.txt

Any guesses as to when it'll no longer be one of the top 5000 primes? I'll go with August 22, 2017.

Well, it's August 22, 2017, and it's currently # 3396.
From there on, it's about five months till it drops off the top-5000 list (average of earlier observations), so Bottom Quark's very first prediction might have been the most accurate of all. Actually, this is true if it drops off before March 26, 2018, after that, science_man_88 is closer with his prediction of late Oct 2018.

axn · 2018-03-29, 05:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by mart_r

Well, it's August 22, 2017, and it's currently # 3396.
From there on, it's about five months till it drops off the top-5000 list (average of earlier observations), so Bottom Quark's very first prediction might have been the most accurate of all. Actually, this is true if it drops off before March 26, 2018, after that, science_man_88 is closer with his prediction of late Oct 2018.

Well, we're at end of march, and it is at #4020. Most likely will fall off the list during next TdP (i.e. Feb 2019).

2013-02-01, 02:02	#49
science_man_88 "Forget I exist" Jul 2009 Dumbassville 2⁶·131 Posts	oh and that's using the average since dubslows prediction, it's averaged over 2 a day since your prediction apparently, which cuts it to october 29-30, 2018 supposedly. Last fiddled with by science_man_88 on 2013-02-01 at 02:05

2014-07-04, 16:50	#51
TheMawn May 2013 East. Always East. 11010111111₂ Posts	Was G1 the largest known Prime at the time? (EDIT: Why so it was! Very interesting.) I think an interesting spin-off of the original topic would be "When will the Top-10 not be all Mersenne Primes?" and more interesting yet, "When will the largest known prime not be a Mersenne Prime?" Last fiddled with by TheMawn on 2014-07-04 at 16:51

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2016-03-12, 07:19	#53
axn Jun 2003 5,051 Posts	Primegrid's PPSE has now crossed G1. From now onward, the drop should accelerate. Currently @ 2250, so probably another year.