Nuke attack - run or hide?

MooMoo2 · 2017-07-31, 00:13

The chances are remote, but the news about North Korea's missile tests got me thinking about this.

Suppose it's just after midnight on Saturday. You're on your way home from a party and are listening to the radio. Out of nowhere, the music is interrupted by an emergency message saying that a nuke, probably in the 20 kiloton range, is heading for downtown Seattle, which is right where you are. It's estimated to arrive in about 10 minutes, so you've got time to do something about it.

What would you do, find the nearest underground garage or subway and take shelter, or hit the freeway and drive as fast as you can to outrun the nuke?

retina · 2017-07-31, 00:22

You'd never actually get to outrun it. The roads will be blocked with everyone panicking. So the only sensible option (assuming you want to survive as long as possible) is to take shelter. Although your extended survival period might not be very pleasant, and it might only be for a short time anyway.

Batalov · 2017-07-31, 00:31

Where is the third option? Embrace it and not live in the sewers for the rest of a (rather miserable) existence?

Quote:

...And as the windshield melts
My tears evaporate
Leaving only charcoal to defend.
Finally I understand the feelings of the few.
Ashes and diamonds
Foe and friend
We were all equal in the end.

"And now the weather. Tomorrow will be cloudy with scattered showers
Spreading from the east with an expected high of 4000 degrees Celsius"

moebius · 2017-07-31, 00:34

it seems the missile is already on it`s way...

https://youtu.be/t4Qfk_tiNsM

science_man_88 · 2017-07-31, 00:46

Freemaptools suggest at 120 MPH you won't make it far (not even Tacoma). at least from downtown. ( okay that's rough mode).

MooMoo2 · 2017-07-31, 01:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by retina

You'd never actually get to outrun it. The roads will be blocked with everyone panicking. So the only sensible option (assuming you want to survive as long as possible) is to take shelter. Although your extended survival period might not be very pleasant, and it might only be for a short time anyway.

The initial amount of traffic may be minimal since most people are already asleep by midnight. If you're at least a mile and a half away from ground zero, you have a good chance of avoiding third degree burns from a nuke that size: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

I think I'd keep driving until my speed dropped below 15 mph. After that, I'd abandon my car, start running, and get into the nearest building or ditch once I have less than a minute left.

science_man_88 · 2017-07-31, 02:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by MooMoo2

The initial amount of traffic may be minimal since most people are already asleep by midnight. If you're at least a mile and a half away from ground zero, you have a good chance of avoiding third degree burns from a nuke that size: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/

I think I'd keep driving until my speed dropped below 15 mph. After that, I'd abandon my car, start running, and get into the nearest building or ditch once I have less than a minute left.

via pigeonhole principle at least 1/24th of the population can be awake during any one hour assuming equal likelihood so what makes you so sure the traffic is light ?

ewmayer · 2017-07-31, 02:33

The next major rupture in the Cascadia subduction zone - a question of 'when', not 'if' - is gonna cause a whole more damage than a Hiroshima-sized nuke. Which is not to say that either scenario isn't really, really shitty. BTW, if the rabid U.S. neocons who dominate the MSM airwaves ever do manage to start the next hot war on the Korean peninsula, Seoul is a much more obvious target for the North Koreans - it's already got massive amounts of conventional artillery trained on it 24/7. But ya can't make a neocon regime-change omelet without breaking a few major-metropolis-of-non-white-people eggs. eh?

Dr Sardonicus · 2017-07-31, 05:09

Quote:

Originally Posted by ewmayer

BTW, if the rabid U.S. neocons who dominate the MSM airwaves ever do manage to start the next hot war on the Korean peninsula, Seoul is a much more obvious target for the North Koreans - it's already got massive amounts of conventional artillery trained on it 24/7. But ya can't make a neocon regime-change omelet without breaking a few major-metropolis-of-non-white-people eggs. eh?

The fact that DPRK has huge numbers of artillery pieces trained on Seoul and environs has long been known. I do find it strange that this is seldom mentioned in news coverage or what is called "news analysis" these days.

I'm not aware of any means that could quickly silence the artillery (I mean, without also devastating Seoul). Most of the big guns are pretty well dug in, as I understand it.

The South Koreans have certainly been aware for quite some time that half their nation's populace is under threat. The August 2004 Guardian article South Korea to move capital 100 miles south says

Quote:

President Roh made relocation a pillar of his election campaign, and says it is vital to improve conditions in Seoul by reducing its population by a tenth. A move 100 miles south also takes the government out of the range of much of North Korea's weaponry.

I guess they moved a lot of government stuff south, but the population of Seoul is still under the gun...

kladner · 2017-07-31, 15:40

Run or hide? With a ten minute warning, I would stand out in the open and hope I was in the "instant incineration" zone.

storm5510 · 2017-08-06, 01:35

I read recently that NK missiles have the ability to reach any location in the U.S. I find this statement dubious. Is this claim from NK, or is this a scientific opinion from someone here?

View Poll Results: If a nuke was coming, I would...
Take shelter	16	72.73%
Outrun it	6	27.27%
Voters: 22. You may not vote on this poll

2017-07-31, 00:13	#1
MooMoo2 Aug 2010 639₁₀ Posts	Nuke attack - run or hide? The chances are remote, but the news about North Korea's missile tests got me thinking about this. Suppose it's just after midnight on Saturday. You're on your way home from a party and are listening to the radio. Out of nowhere, the music is interrupted by an emergency message saying that a nuke, probably in the 20 kiloton range, is heading for downtown Seattle, which is right where you are. It's estimated to arrive in about 10 minutes, so you've got time to do something about it. What would you do, find the nearest underground garage or subway and take shelter, or hit the freeway and drive as fast as you can to outrun the nuke?

2017-07-31, 00:34	#4
moebius Jul 2009 Germany 25E₁₆ Posts	it seems the missile is already on it`s way... https://youtu.be/t4Qfk_tiNsM Last fiddled with by moebius on 2017-07-31 at 00:36

2017-07-31, 00:46	#5
science_man_88 "Forget I exist" Jul 2009 Dumbassville 2⁶×131 Posts	Freemaptools suggest at 120 MPH you won't make it far (not even Tacoma). at least from downtown. ( okay that's rough mode). Last fiddled with by science_man_88 on 2017-07-31 at 00:48

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2017-07-31, 00:22	#2
retina Undefined "The unspeakable one" Jun 2006 My evil lair 2²·1,549 Posts	You'd never actually get to outrun it. The roads will be blocked with everyone panicking. So the only sensible option (assuming you want to survive as long as possible) is to take shelter. Although your extended survival period might not be very pleasant, and it might only be for a short time anyway.

2017-07-31, 02:33	#8
ewmayer ∂²ω=0 Sep 2002 República de California 11639₁₀ Posts	The next major rupture in the Cascadia subduction zone - a question of 'when', not 'if' - is gonna cause a whole more damage than a Hiroshima-sized nuke. Which is not to say that either scenario isn't really, really shitty. BTW, if the rabid U.S. neocons who dominate the MSM airwaves ever do manage to start the next hot war on the Korean peninsula, Seoul is a much more obvious target for the North Koreans - it's already got massive amounts of conventional artillery trained on it 24/7. But ya can't make a neocon regime-change omelet without breaking a few major-metropolis-of-non-white-people eggs. eh?

2017-07-31, 15:40	#10
kladner "Kieren" Jul 2011 In My Own Galaxy! 2×3×1,693 Posts	Run or hide? With a ten minute warning, I would stand out in the open and hope I was in the "instant incineration" zone.

2017-08-06, 01:35	#11
storm5510 Random Account Aug 2009 3²×7×31 Posts	I read recently that NK missiles have the ability to reach any location in the U.S. I find this statement dubious. Is this claim from NK, or is this a scientific opinion from someone here?