Dutch Election Day (a.k.a. political nightmare!) - Page 2

CRGreathouse · 2017-03-16, 21:11

The Shapley-Shubik power indicex is a measure of coalitional power: how much power a party has, based on how likely it is that votes would turn a coalition into a winning coalition. It would, for example, give equal power to parties with 50, 50, and 1 votes if 51 votes were needed to form a coalition: the little party isn't actually any weaker than the big ones, because its one vote is needed to go from losing to winning. There's a similar measure, the Banzhaf index, which could also be used here (but which I haven't used). Here I used a threshold of 75 votes.

VVD 32 (24.0)
PvdA 9 (5.4)
SP 14 (8.8)
PVV 19 (12.6)
CDA 19 (12.6)
D66 19 (12.6)
CU 6 (4.0)
GL 15 (9.6)
SGP 3 (1.8)
PvdD 5 (3.2)
50+ 4 (2.5)
FvD 2 (1.3)
DENK 3 (1.8)

ewmayer · 2017-03-16, 21:56

[I moved this thread to the Soap Box, which is the appropriate venue for politics.]

Thanks for the rundown, Victor!

Quote:

Originally Posted by VictordeHolland

Why didn't I include the PVV? Their nationalistic, anti-immigrant/anti-islam agenda is very difficult to unify with the agenda/ ideas of other parties. They tried to co-rule in 2010-2012 with some sort of principle agreement, but withdrew their support in 2012 and (early) elections were needed.

Mainstream, Pro-EU Rutte's VVD Beats Populist, Anti-Immigration Wilders in Dutch Election | naked capitalism

Quote:

Rutte appears to have cut into Wilders’ support by taking a harder line on immigration. And the dust-up with Turkey over Erdogan’s ministers seeking to campaign to Turkish expats over a Constitutional referendum also appears to have helped the establishment.

Reader 'Mucho', in the comments to that article:

"VVD and CDA took on a substantial part of Wilder’s rhetoric. In essence, he moved the Overton-window to the right."

In other words, while Wilders' PVV may have done "worse than expected", its influence went far beyond the number of seats gained.

LaurV · 2017-03-17, 07:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by VictordeHolland

The Dutch general elections...

<snip>

Confused yet

? No? Welcome to the alphabetical gibberish that is the Dutch political landscape.

Nice post Victor.

So, the Dutch, like everywhere...

Dubslow · 2017-03-17, 08:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by VictordeHolland

I live in the manicipality called Nieuwkoop

Hey, you're not very far from... well who am I kidding, nothing's very from anything in a small country like the low country

but you're only about 35km from where my great uncle lives (my Opa's brother, and I suppose it's rather longer by car). He's just on the far side of Utrecht.

(I've always found it mildly amusing/fitting that here in the US my Opa has retired to the only place in the nation that calls itself "low country"... just loves the sea I guess.)

BotXXX · 2017-03-23, 10:23

Although Wilders did not "win" as predicted by various polls, the big difference for news about Wilders and his party for these elections were that he choose to mostly ignore the Dutch media and only was talking to foreign media (very likely has to do with his most important foreign funding drying up). Which made it silly to see a big interview in French media with Wilders, while in the Netherlands is was quiet on such deeper interviews.

As for his long lasting in the second chamber, on this page you can see all current members. And if you sort on "Anciënniteit" you can sort the current members on the amount of days being a member. Wilders is number 4 with 6721 days - ie almost 18,5 years by now.
*fun fact, all other members have their city of residence listed. Wilders is the only one without it. This is due his "protection" provided by the state, as he faces quite a lot of "serious" threats and the state would like to prevent an incident (which happened to Pim Fortuyn for instance). He is married but does not have kids, which makes his security / hiding much easier.

Another fun fact, he did not always have this particular hair style and color. Find him in here.

As with most of the elections in NL, there is no 1 party big enough to rule. And the intended party program will need to be amended with a lot of concessions with the coalition of ruling parties......

Brian-E · 2017-03-23, 18:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by BotXXX

[...]he choose to mostly ignore the Dutch media and only was talking to foreign media (very likely has to do with his most important foreign funding drying up)[...]

I think a more likely explanation for this is the fact that Wilders can get away with the most outrageous lies when talking to foreign media, which he would not get away with when talking to Dutch journalists who would be more on-the-ball with issues in The Netherlands. Regarding interviews which he has given to Dutch media, Wilders had shown himself only prepared to give these to a few select interviewers who would be uncritical of whatever nonsense he might choose to pull out of his backside. (Here is an article, Dutch language, showcasing some of his lies in a recent interview to an uncritical Dutch journalist.)

You mention the murder of Pim Fortuyn. A few weeks ago Wilders actually got away with stating to a journalist in Germany on German television that Fortuyn's murder was an example of a political murder by an Islamic extremist. The context was the threats Wilders himself receives, which you also mention. Fortuyn's murder, of course, had nothing to do with Islamic terrorism.

VictordeHolland · 2017-10-09, 13:04

6 months of coffee drinking on taxpayers expenses later.......

VVD, D66, CDA and Groenlinks (GreenLeft, GL) tried to come to some sort of agreement twice, but the negotiations failed on the subject of immigration.

VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie (CU) reached a conceptual coalition agreement and are presenting it to their factions behind closed doors today. It is a very fragile construction as pointed out earlier, as together have only 76 out of 150 seats in parliament.

Even though no party will go on record about the new plans, most of it has been leaked. This is sometimes done as 'strategic leaking' to see how the plans are perceived by the public. In case of a lot of criticism, they can make some late adjustments.

Leaked so far:
Climate
- New minister post of climate
- New climate laws to reach the goals in the Paris agreements.
- Taxes on gas increase, taxes on electricity decrease
- By-the-kilometer-tax for freight trafic (I wonder how they plan to implement this)
- Extra tax on flying
- 100 million subsidies for the isolation of homes.

(these probably came from the negotiations with the Green party, but it is likely they will keep these, since the 'greens' gained so much support and most parties feel this is a responsible thing to do.)

Taxes
- From 2019 taxes on income/labour will be simplified. Now we have 4 tariffs ranging from ~32 to 52%. This will be reduces to two. 37%? below 68 000 euro yearly and 50% above the 68 000.
(This may sound like a lot, but this includes all kinds of social securities for unemployment, elderly, labour unfitness. The exact percentages might still change)

- Sales tax on groceries, culture, hairdresser and other 'necessities' will go from 6% to 9%.

(Sales tax on 'luxeries', like electronics, cars, alcohol will likely remain at 21%)
- Corporate income tax will be reduced from 20% to 16% (<200 000 euro yearly). Above 200 000 it will be 21% instead of 25%.
- Dividend tax will be abolished.
(This is done to make it more attractive for business to come to the Netherlands)

Integration and immigration
- No new 'childpardon' for children with a foreign nationality. These are children living most of their childhood in the Netherlands but with a foreign nationality, to get the Dutch nationality.

- Refugees will not get certain benefits in the first two years, instead the local governments get more influence in the integration procedure and will provide the necessary facilities/provisions.

- More agreements like the one between EU and Turkey to place immigrants/asylum/refugees in the region of origin.

(personally I think some of these policies are a bit harsh, especially the first one. But the fear/concerns about immigration have to be addressed in some way. )

Employment
- Employment termination laws will be made less strict, but the compensation will be slightly higher.

- Employers will only need to pay employees for 1 year in case of long-term sickness (instead of 2 years).
(this has written VVD and CDA all over it)

Defence
- Defence will get an extra 1500 million euro
- Justice will get an extra 439 miljoen euro
- The government will start with an experimental state-owned weed farm that will sell the weed to coffee-shops in 6-10 municipalities. At the same time 100 million euro will be spend to combat drugs crime.
(this is something D66 has wanted to try for some time, but never could get enough support. I think it is a great idea, you take away a source of income of the criminal circuit and provide the coffeshop owners with a legal way to buy a quality product

)

Medical-ethical
This is the subject that the parties have very different opinions over and is a subject you cant reach a compromise on in terms of money. The euthanasia, abortion, same-sex marriage laws don't go well with the Christian parties (CDA, CU), while the liberal parties (VVD, D66) want to add new laws to make stam-cell therapy/research possible.
(I think the compromise will be a status-quo)

Education
- 500 million euro extra for primary education

- Children will be thought the Wilhelmus (national anthem) and must visit the house of parliment and/or Rijksmuseum in their time at school at least once.
- Upon reaching the age of 18, the citizen will get a (free?) history book of the cultural heritage/history of the Netherlands.
(this is something the Christian parties want, to increase the cultural awareness/heritage)

LaurV · 2017-10-16, 02:06

Quote:

Originally Posted by VictordeHolland

- Taxes on gas increase, taxes on electricity decrease

This can't be bad.
Still reading...

tha · 2017-10-31, 12:35

The longest forming of a coalition in Dutch parliament to create a government indeed. But we can make some observations that I believe are pleasing.

- Despite the previous government being without a mission since the last election and consisting for 50% of a party that chose to go into opposition, the government as a whole and the country continued to function normally without a hitch.
- A coalition was formed by four parties of which some had excluded each other firmly at first (particularly the outright shunning of the Christian Union by the Democrats '66) with a solid agreement on how to govern.
- None of the lesser or more extreme parties managed to get into the mix.

I am still appalled by how the Labour party chose to go into opposition, even as it's natural and long-standing rivalling parties courted it into a government coalition. I blame its members congress where complete amateurs voted their party semi-strategic into oblivion.

2017-03-16, 21:11	#12
CRGreathouse Aug 2006 175B₁₆ Posts	The Shapley-Shubik power indicex is a measure of coalitional power: how much power a party has, based on how likely it is that votes would turn a coalition into a winning coalition. It would, for example, give equal power to parties with 50, 50, and 1 votes if 51 votes were needed to form a coalition: the little party isn't actually any weaker than the big ones, because its one vote is needed to go from losing to winning. There's a similar measure, the Banzhaf index, which could also be used here (but which I haven't used). Here I used a threshold of 75 votes. VVD 32 (24.0) PvdA 9 (5.4) SP 14 (8.8) PVV 19 (12.6) CDA 19 (12.6) D66 19 (12.6) CU 6 (4.0) GL 15 (9.6) SGP 3 (1.8) PvdD 5 (3.2) 50+ 4 (2.5) FvD 2 (1.3) DENK 3 (1.8)

2017-10-09, 13:04	#18
VictordeHolland "Victor de Hollander" Aug 2011 the Netherlands 2³·3·7² Posts	progress?! 6 months of coffee drinking on taxpayers expenses later....... VVD, D66, CDA and Groenlinks (GreenLeft, GL) tried to come to some sort of agreement twice, but the negotiations failed on the subject of immigration. VVD, D66, CDA and ChristenUnie (CU) reached a conceptual coalition agreement and are presenting it to their factions behind closed doors today. It is a very fragile construction as pointed out earlier, as together have only 76 out of 150 seats in parliament. Even though no party will go on record about the new plans, most of it has been leaked. This is sometimes done as 'strategic leaking' to see how the plans are perceived by the public. In case of a lot of criticism, they can make some late adjustments. Leaked so far: Climate - New minister post of climate - New climate laws to reach the goals in the Paris agreements. - Taxes on gas increase, taxes on electricity decrease - By-the-kilometer-tax for freight trafic (I wonder how they plan to implement this) - Extra tax on flying - 100 million subsidies for the isolation of homes. (these probably came from the negotiations with the Green party, but it is likely they will keep these, since the 'greens' gained so much support and most parties feel this is a responsible thing to do.) Taxes - From 2019 taxes on income/labour will be simplified. Now we have 4 tariffs ranging from ~32 to 52%. This will be reduces to two. 37%? below 68 000 euro yearly and 50% above the 68 000. (This may sound like a lot, but this includes all kinds of social securities for unemployment, elderly, labour unfitness. The exact percentages might still change) - Sales tax on groceries, culture, hairdresser and other 'necessities' will go from 6% to 9%. (Sales tax on 'luxeries', like electronics, cars, alcohol will likely remain at 21%) - Corporate income tax will be reduced from 20% to 16% (<200 000 euro yearly). Above 200 000 it will be 21% instead of 25%. - Dividend tax will be abolished. (This is done to make it more attractive for business to come to the Netherlands) Integration and immigration - No new 'childpardon' for children with a foreign nationality. These are children living most of their childhood in the Netherlands but with a foreign nationality, to get the Dutch nationality. - Refugees will not get certain benefits in the first two years, instead the local governments get more influence in the integration procedure and will provide the necessary facilities/provisions. - More agreements like the one between EU and Turkey to place immigrants/asylum/refugees in the region of origin. (personally I think some of these policies are a bit harsh, especially the first one. But the fear/concerns about immigration have to be addressed in some way. ) Employment - Employment termination laws will be made less strict, but the compensation will be slightly higher. - Employers will only need to pay employees for 1 year in case of long-term sickness (instead of 2 years). (this has written VVD and CDA all over it) Defence - Defence will get an extra 1500 million euro - Justice will get an extra 439 miljoen euro - The government will start with an experimental state-owned weed farm that will sell the weed to coffee-shops in 6-10 municipalities. At the same time 100 million euro will be spend to combat drugs crime. (this is something D66 has wanted to try for some time, but never could get enough support. I think it is a great idea, you take away a source of income of the criminal circuit and provide the coffeshop owners with a legal way to buy a quality product ) Medical-ethical This is the subject that the parties have very different opinions over and is a subject you cant reach a compromise on in terms of money. The euthanasia, abortion, same-sex marriage laws don't go well with the Christian parties (CDA, CU), while the liberal parties (VVD, D66) want to add new laws to make stam-cell therapy/research possible. (I think the compromise will be a status-quo) Education - 500 million euro extra for primary education - Children will be thought the Wilhelmus (national anthem) and must visit the house of parliment and/or Rijksmuseum in their time at school at least once. - Upon reaching the age of 18, the citizen will get a (free?) history book of the cultural heritage/history of the Netherlands. (this is something the Christian parties want, to increase the cultural awareness/heritage) Last fiddled with by VictordeHolland on 2017-10-09 at 13:07

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2017-03-23, 10:23	#16
BotXXX Aug 2003 Europe 2·97 Posts	Although Wilders did not "win" as predicted by various polls, the big difference for news about Wilders and his party for these elections were that he choose to mostly ignore the Dutch media and only was talking to foreign media (very likely has to do with his most important foreign funding drying up). Which made it silly to see a big interview in French media with Wilders, while in the Netherlands is was quiet on such deeper interviews. As for his long lasting in the second chamber, on this page you can see all current members. And if you sort on "Anciënniteit" you can sort the current members on the amount of days being a member. Wilders is number 4 with 6721 days - ie almost 18,5 years by now. *fun fact, all other members have their city of residence listed. Wilders is the only one without it. This is due his "protection" provided by the state, as he faces quite a lot of "serious" threats and the state would like to prevent an incident (which happened to Pim Fortuyn for instance). He is married but does not have kids, which makes his security / hiding much easier. Another fun fact, he did not always have this particular hair style and color. Find him in here. As with most of the elections in NL, there is no 1 party big enough to rule. And the intended party program will need to be amended with a lot of concessions with the coalition of ruling parties......

2017-10-31, 12:35	#20
tha Dec 2002 2·11·37 Posts	The longest forming of a coalition in Dutch parliament to create a government indeed. But we can make some observations that I believe are pleasing. - Despite the previous government being without a mission since the last election and consisting for 50% of a party that chose to go into opposition, the government as a whole and the country continued to function normally without a hitch. - A coalition was formed by four parties of which some had excluded each other firmly at first (particularly the outright shunning of the Christian Union by the Democrats '66) with a solid agreement on how to govern. - None of the lesser or more extreme parties managed to get into the mix. I am still appalled by how the Labour party chose to go into opposition, even as it's natural and long-standing rivalling parties courted it into a government coalition. I blame its members congress where complete amateurs voted their party semi-strategic into oblivion.